The Yankees Rotation – After One Month
Now that the Yankees have played 30 games this season, and, now that each of their starting pitchers has appeared in 6 games, each, exactly, I thought it would be interesting to look at all of the starters, side-by-side, in terms of their numbers:
Pitcher ERA W L IP HR WHIP SO K/BB BFP BF/G ERA+ Wang 3.23 5 0 39.0 1 1.12 27 2.45 161 26.8 130 Pettitte 3.93 3 3 36.7 5 1.42 20 1.82 157 26.2 107 Mussina 4.73 3 3 32.3 7 1.27 12 2.40 135 22.5 089 Kennedy 8.37 0 2 23.7 1 2.03 16 0.80 117 19.5 050 Hughes 9.00 0 4 22.0 2 2.14 13 1.00 110 18.3 047
No question, Chien-Ming Wang has been the ace of the staff, to date – note his ERA+, wins, command (K/BB), and WHIP. And, Andy Pettitte has been O.K., so far – pitching just a tick above league average in terms of ERA and winning half of his starts.
Mike Mussina’s numbers are interesting. Like Pettitte, he’s won half of his starts. And, in terms of command and limiting baserunners, Moose has been better than Pettitte. What’s hurt Mussina has been the long-ball – and that’s why his ERA+ is as low as it is here.
Lastly, Kennedy and Hughes. Could their numbers be any closer through their first six games this season? It’s almost a carbon-copy job there – both have been terrible: IP/G, WHIP, command, and ERA+ are just flat-out ugly.
Hopefully, Darrell Rasner will provide some better numbers than Hughes. And, Kennedy? Well, let’s just say that Ian is lucky that Kei Igawa has not done well in his last three Triple-A starts (17 IP and 10 ER), Jeff Karstens is still rehabbing, and that there’s no one else in Triple-A worth calling up.
By the way, anyone notice the start that Kyle Lohse is off to this season?
Only Rasner was dominating in AAA, though Steven White has been okay. Hopefully Igawa just stays down there and is never heard from again.
Kennedy should feel lucky that Alan Horne, who got off to a decent start, is currently rehabbing.
But Dan McCutchen is kicking butt in AA and Chase Wright is pitching well, too. If McCutch gets called up sometime soon and pitches well in AAA, Kennedy might feel a bit more pressure.
And Kyle Lohse? First off, he’s in the NL. And I haven’t seen him pitch yet this year, but I have to assume his low ERA is mostly luck and a good defense. His current ERA is way, way outside his career norm. He’s still giving up plenty of hits and not striking anyone out, so I assume he’ll revert back to his normal, mediocre self soon.
Though Shelley’s dad Dave sure is a friggin’ genius.
Who would you rather have now, a mediocre Lohse, a not-ready-for-prime-time Kennedy, or Igawa?
Me? I’d take Lohse.
I’d rather have one year of not-ready-for-prime-time Kennedy (though he could, and I think will, get better) than four years of a mediocre Lohse, who wouldn’t have a 2-something ERA in the AL. As much as I hate to use the word, this is a transition year (yeah, even at 200 mil) for the Yanks. So signing someone like that long-term just doesn’t make sense.
Even on the one-year deal I’m not sold, because personally I think he would be getting blasted in the AL right now.
And like I said, Igawa can rot in AAA for his entire contract, for all I care.
I don’t know much about Kyle Lohse, but I am very interested in bringing some major league-level pitching to this team and getting on with the business of winning of this division.
The stars on this team are in their mid 30′s. Mo is 38. The future is now.
Ha! I was waiting for this post about Lohse.
Who would you rather have now, a mediocre Lohse, a not-ready-for-prime-time Kennedy, or Igawa?
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Ah, yes, Lohse. Here are the other steps you suggested would be in the Yanks’ best interests during last offseason. Since you were willing to go out on a limb by putting it in writing maybe not all would be of such a good short term improvement as Lohse might be for one month.
Like anyone, some people are right some of the time, some people are wrong some of the time. For every Lohse there’s a Tyler Clippard.
October 2007
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2nd – Get rid of Bruney
8th – Get rid of Cashman
9th – Hire Tony DeFrancesco as manager, trade Giambi as compensation
12th – Don’t sign Arod at 12 years / 360mm
13th – Phillips, Betemit, and Duncan should produce 30 HR, 90 rbi so no
additions necessary
18th – Re-sign Pettitte, Posada, and Rivera. Pick up option on Abreu.
Rotation of Wang, Pettitte, Hughes, Chamberlain, Mussina, and Kennedy
should be sufficient.
30th – Sign Jon Lieber as insurance
November 2007
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5th – Pass on Miguel Cabrera
6th – Trade Damon for Scott Rolen. Trade Giambi for Lowry (included
since DeFrancesco deal didn’t go through)
6th – Trade Horne, Farnsworth, Gardner and $ for Kevin Kouzmanoff. If
that trade isn’t done trade CLIPPARD, Farnsworth, Calzado, and $ for
Kouzmanoff
6th – Sign Lowell for 3 years for $33mm with team option for a 4th year.
6th – Don’t pursue Miguel Tejada
6th – Don’t pursue Hitoki Iwase
6th – Don’t pursue Johan Santana if it’s $20mm per year and either
Hughes, Chamberlain, or Kennedy are involved.
9th – Play Alberto Gonzalez at SS, move Jeter to 3B
12th – Trade Horne, Clippard, Steven White, and Igawa for Dan Haren
14th – Sign Matt Herges
14th – Sign Ron Mahay if he will accept a 1 year offer
26th – Get Joe Nathan even if it might take a prospect at the level of
Tyler Clippard
26th – Trade Ian Kennedy for Haren assuming the offer of the 12th was
rejected.
26th – Trade Kennedy, Melky, Horne, Karstens, Gonzalez, Whelan,
Hilligoss, and Anson for Johan Santana
December 2007
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2nd – Bring back Vizcaino
2nd – Trade Matsui for Matt Cain
2nd – Trade Horne & Tabata for Edgar Rentiera and move Jeter to 1B
8th – Cut Pavano. That took a while to get around to.
January 2008
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10th – Don’t sign Jason Lane
19th – Don’t sign Brad Wilkerson
23rd – Sign Lohse to a 4 year contract
26th – Would not offer Cano an extension at the terms he agreed to
February
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4th – Sign Kevin Mench
9th – Would split the $difference for the Wang arbitration case.
What the fuck is that? lol
Bailey….isn’t Lohse on a 1 year contract with the Cardinals? …I would have done it as an insurance move…you could have always cut him if it didn’t work out…
I think the Yankees have something else up their sleeve though that we don’t know about…but hopefully Rasner will give them decent innings.
Yep, he is. But Steve suggested signing him to a four-year deal. But since he is on a one-year, I wrote in the above post “Even on the one-year deal I’m not sold…”
Anyway, some (rare) good news: David Robertson (who dominated AA) has finally been promoted to AAA. Hopefully his next stop is the eighth inning in the big leagues — a move that puts Joba in the rotation.
For all of our panic in Yankeeland, if Pettitte gets himself together and Joba transitions to the rotation without a hitch, then Kennedy’s struggles will probably be an afterthought. After all, Kennedy was never really supposed to be important. It was all about Hughes and Joba. Joba 1, Hughes 1A (or 2, as things have gone).
I think the Yankees can still compete with Wang-Pettitte-Joba.
Lohse wasn’t a back of the rotation pick as insurance.Now look at what happened?Ooops!Rasner will be OK for the time being but the Yanks need to either get Joba in the starting rotation,sign Freddy Garcia and try to make a trade with a non-contender in July.Cashman should have traded Igawa last year to a pitching starved team for a middle reliever.Igawa’s presence can only hurt not help the team.Rasner will be OK so they can live with this for the time being.
Look,Santana heads out there,the Sox had the better offer for Santana.For the Yanks to get Santana ,they would have had to overpay.In addition,the Yanks 4 and 5 would be who?Igawa and Mussina?That isn’t musch better than what they have now and the Yankee payroll would be what:325 million after luxury tax and the Number 2 team,the Tigers have a 138 million dollar payroll!I know that money comes off next year BUT where does this stop?
Basura – you missed the time, when I was in grammar school, that I told my friends that the Partridge Family was a real band.
And, you also missed the time that I thought, “Wow. Some people need to get a life.”
All, FWIW, on Lohse – I did revise my recommendation on him once the market shut him out – - and I said the Yankees should have offered him a one year deal. And, looking back now, that would have been a great move, no?
If not, Basura, please be sure to update your scorecard on me, OK?
Last I checked, the Yankees were 11-0 in games when they were leading after the 7th inning. FWIW, Orel Hershiser and Steve Phillips were saying on ESPN that its getting around the league that you better have a lead against the Yankees before the 8th and maybe even the 7th inning if you want a chance to win.
Also, I thought Joba was on a strict innings leash (around 150) that didn’t have him starting until after the All-Star Break. So what do you do until then?
I wouldn’t touch Joba until the off-season, if ever again.
Hey, Steve, doesn’t it suck when people continue to bring up past mistakes instead of dealing with the issue at hand? Wink, T.J. Beam, wink, wink.
But anyway… Let’s not reopen the Joba stater/reliever issue. It’s easier to replace a setup man than a starting pitcher. With the Hughes injury, it’s more important than ever to get Joba in the rotation — and he’s going in the rotation no matter what fans or radio hosts think. He does have an innings limit and the date for the transition is still midyear. Hopefully by then Robertson has made it to the big leagues and is a sub, or someone else has stepped up. However we look at it, he’s going to the rotation, and the team needs him. He doesn’t have to be an ace in ’08. He simply needs to be a solid three, which is what they expected out of Hughes and (as of yet) have not gotten.
Last I checked, the Yankees were 11-0 in games when they were leading after the 7th inning
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Huh, guess the Yanks should just keep their shitty starting pitchers and hope for the best up til the 8th inning. That way they can finish 60 – 0 in games they’re leading after the 7th inning and finish 65 – 97.
WRT–You don’t mess up one part of your pitching staff to maybe fix another. We know what Joba is as a reliever on the ML level, we have no idea what he is as a starter.
I’m not interested in a third screwed up kid pitcher at this point.
The future is now.
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If this franchise relegates itself to that mindset, they will become the New York Knicks.
Sometimes you have to take a step back to take two step forward. That time is now.
Rich–I don’t buy your analogy. The Yankees are not the Knicks, and MLB is structured much differently than the NBA. You’re comparing apples and oranges.
And I’m not trading the dwindling but still productive years of Jeter, Mo, Jorge, Pettitte, and even A-Rod to make Yankee Stadium Scranton North.
If not, Basura, please be sure to update your scorecard on me, OK?
No thanks, you’ve previously wrote me that some of these were just “spitballs”. You’ve made some very good suggestions but for every “Get Lohse” you might be right about (though I wouldn’t want him for 4 years) there’s a “Rotation of Wang, Pettitte, Hughes, Chamberlain, Mussina, and Kennedy
should be sufficient” out there. When you remind us of your home run calls don’t forget some of the clunkers.
Rich–I don’t buy your analogy. The Yankees are not the Knicks, and MLB is structured much differently than the NBA. You’re comparing apples and oranges.
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There are differences and there are similarities, but I think the similarities outweigh the differences.
One difference is that there is no salary cap in MLB, but there is an onerous Yankee tax. That tax was a major reason why Hal opposed the Santana trade.
The most important potential similarity revolves around whether or not the organizational decision makers make costly short-sighted moves in order to try to squeeze more out of an aging core. That’s what killed the Knicks (e.g., they refused to trade Oakley for Kobe when Charlotte drafted him).
Cash and Hal resisted that philosophy when they refused to trade top young talent for Santana.
That brings up another difference. There is no minor league system in the NBA. The question then becomes what do the Yankees do with their minor league talent. Do they sell low for quick fixes, or do they continue with the philosophy that caused them to reject the Santana deal?
It appears that you would have them sell off minor league talent for quick fixes. If the Yankees follow that course, they will not have replacements for Damon, Abreu, and Matsui, because A-Jack and Tabata would likely be required to make any significant trade. Similarly, they would lose a potential heir to the catching position because they would likely have to trade Montero.
If you do make those short-sighted trades the difference between the Yankees and Knicks begin to fall away.
Your argument is further weakened by the fact that of the players you list, only Mo has lived up to his reputation this season. Jeter, A-Rod, Posada, and Pettitte have all suffered injuries since ST that may be related to age. They have also underachieved. If they had performed up to expectations, this argument might have been unnecessary.