The 5th Inning Is Killing The Yankees

As of this morning, here’s the Yankees 2008 W-L record break-down based on the score of their game after 5 innings:

When the Yankees lead after five innings: New York is 14-1.
When the Yanks trail or are tied after five innings: New York is 5-20.

Further, here’s the Yankees runs scored (RS) and runs allowed (RA) so far this season by innings:

Inning	RS	RA	DIFF
1	20	16	  4
2	12	12	  0
3	18	35        -17
4	28	22	  6
5	20	34        -14
6	22	20	  2
7	19	14	  5
8	17	16	  1
9	13	 3	 10
10	 0	 0	  0
11	 0	 1	 -1

Pretty interesting huh? As bad as the Yankees offense has been this season, outside of two innings in the game, they’ve been able to match up with their pitcher’s work, somewhat well, this season. And, those two innings are the 3rd and 5th inning.

When you look at all these stats, it shows you that the Yankees bugaboo this season has been games where they’ve fallen behind by the 5th inning - as they do not have the fire power to come back in those games and these situations have become auto-losses for the team.

Here are the Yankees pitching leaders - in terms of facing batters in the 3rd inning:

Mike Mussina 39
Andy Pettitte 35
Chien-Ming Wang 33
Ian Kennedy 29
Philip Hughes 24
Ross Ohlendorf 9
Darrell Rasner 8
Kei Igawa 8

And, here are the Yankees pitching leaders - in terms of facing batters in the 5th inning:

Chien-Ming Wang 39
Andy Pettitte 34
Mike Mussina 34
Ross Ohlendorf 22
Jonathan Albaladejo 13
Ian Kennedy 11
Philip Hughes 9
Kyle Farnsworth 7

There are ten pitchers here to look at: Albaladejo, Farnsworth, Hughes, Igawa, Kennedy, Mussina, Ohlendorf, Pettitte, Rasner and Wang. And, let’s look at their BA/OBP/SLG allowed lines for their work, to date, in the 3rd and 5th innings of Yankees games.

Albaladejo
3rd Inning: .333/.333/.667
5th Inning: .308/.308/.385

Farnsworth
3rd Inning: 0 PA
5th Inning: .600/.714/1.200

Hughes
3rd Inning: .400/.500/.800
5th Inning: .375/.444/.500

Igawa
3rd Inning: .625/.625/.875
5th Inning: 0 PA

Kennedy
3rd Inning: .476/.586/.952
5th Inning: .200/.273/.200

Mussina
3rd Inning: .343/.395/.600
5th Inning: .387/.412/.548

Ohlendorf
3rd Inning: .125/.222/.125
5th Inning: .286/.318/.333

Pettitte
3rd Inning: .250/.371/.250
5th Inning: .344/.382/.750

Rasner
3rd Inning: .286/.286/.286
5th Inning: .000/.167/.000

Wang
3rd Inning: .161/.212/.226
5th Inning: .382/.462/.529

Looking at these splits, you can see that Rasner and Ohlendorf are clear from blame for these innings. And, forget the kids and Igawa because we all know their story. But, notice the 5th innings numbers for the Yankees “first three” starting pitchers:

Mussina .387/.412/.548
Pettitte .344/.382/.750
Wang .382/.462/.529

I’m shocked by these results. Just what is going on with the Yankees starting pitchers - as a whole, and not just the kids - where the 5th inning has become a frame where they get hit so hard? Is it lack of conditioning? Pitch selection? Both? Something else?

Bottom line, if you want to know why the Yankees have a record of 19-21 at the one quarter mark of the season, yes, you can finger the offense, but, you also have to wonder about what’s going on with the 5th inning and their starting pitchers…all of their starting pitchers.

May 14, 2008 | Filed Under Math Class

Comments

6 Responses to “The 5th Inning Is Killing The Yankees”

antone on May 14th, 2008 11:56 am

This is funny because me and a co-worker at work used to rag on Mussina the previous two years because we would say he would pitch great except for the 3-4 runs he would give up in the 5th inning all the time.

It was pretty much the joke we would make everytime he was set to pitch that night but it looks like it’s true and it’s infected Petitte now too.

Not really worried about Wang too much but maybe “Mussina’s 5th inning plague” is spreading.
WRT on May 14th, 2008 12:27 pm

Interesting, but ultimately it’s of no importance which inning the pitchers give up their runs in. They’ve still been pitching effectively enough to give a team with an offense as good as the Yankees a chance to win.

So, in my book the offense still deserves the lion’s share of the blame for how pathetic and downright uninspiring this team is to watch.
hopbitters on May 14th, 2008 12:38 pm

With Mussina, the inning is irrelevant. He just tends to fall apart as he approaches the 100 pitch mark. He also counts his own pitches, so he knows its coming and that probably compounds the problem.
antone on May 14th, 2008 2:36 pm

With Mussina, the inning is irrelevant. He just tends to fall apart as he approaches the 100 pitch mark. He also counts his own pitches, so he knows its coming and that probably compounds the problem.
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Which is probably around the 5th inning….
hopbitters on May 14th, 2008 6:18 pm

Right, but there’s nothing particular to the inning itself. It could be the sixth or seventh if he’s efficient with his pitch count.
Lee Sinins on May 14th, 2008 10:10 pm

The key to the W-L record after winning or losing after 5 innings isn’t that there is something important about those innings. The key is winning or losing over 5 innings, which is a majority, albeit a slight one, of the game.

I’ve seen stats that show, over the course of a season, you’ll get similar results for winning/losing after 5 innings as you would for winning/losing over the course of things like innings 3-7 or even non consecutive innings, like 1,2, 4, 6, 7.