• Keri: To Win, Yanks Need Trade, Breaks & Pen To Step Up

    Posted by on May 20th, 2008 · Comments (21)

    Jonah Keri, on the Yankees, via ESPN.com Page 2 -

    With the offense weakened, that puts pressure on the pitching staff to win games, and I don’t see enough there for that to happen. Phil Hughes looks like he’s not ready, Ian Kennedy never had that much upside to begin with and you can’t feel 100 percent safe about Andy Pettitte’s elbow or Mike Mussina’s performance holding up. Moving Joba Chamberlain to the rotation would solve a lot, but the Yankees are being way too conservative on that front, and that’s going to cost them games between now and the time it finally happens.

    As is, a lot has to fall into place for the Yankees to make the playoffs. If it takes well more than 90 wins to get the wild card this year, I don’t know if they can do it. As is, they’ll need to make at least one significant trade and catch a big break elsewhere — the rest of the bullpen stepping up big if/when Joba becomes a starter, Hughes, Kennedy or Darrell Rasner panning out this season, or some other helpful event — for the team to succeed.

    One significant trade?

    You mean like the Santana deal? Oh, never mind…

    Comments on Keri: To Win, Yanks Need Trade, Breaks & Pen To Step Up

    1. baileywalk
      May 20th, 2008 | 4:15 pm

      File this one under “zzzzzzzzzzzzz.”

    2. gphunt
      May 20th, 2008 | 4:48 pm

      Steve, I don’t think even Santana can fix the Yankees hitting problems.

      Wang should be credited with atleast two other victories already if it weren’t for absmal hitting. I think Pettitte missed out on a few as well.

    3. MJ
      May 20th, 2008 | 5:49 pm

      You mean like the Santana deal? Oh, never mind…
      =================================
      Whatever. You’re sound more and more like Hanky by the day.

    4. Rich
      May 20th, 2008 | 5:56 pm

      Given the lack of run support, and Santana being good but not great, he might have a losing record.

    5. yankeemonkey
      May 20th, 2008 | 6:00 pm

      So wait, you’re saying that if players play better, the team will win games? Who knew…

    6. Rich
      May 20th, 2008 | 8:06 pm

      On second thought, they need something to shake them out of this stupor.

    7. Raf
      May 20th, 2008 | 9:34 pm

      Steve, I really hope you aren’t at the game tonight.

    8. May 20th, 2008 | 10:19 pm

      Nah, one of the few ‘perks’ of unemployment…not having the $75 to pay for a ticket to a game like this one!

    9. Rich
      May 20th, 2008 | 10:26 pm

      I wouldn’t go to a game right now if someone paid for the tickets, dinner, and a limo.

    10. Don
      May 20th, 2008 | 10:35 pm

      The Bronx is burning.

    11. May 20th, 2008 | 11:04 pm

      That’s OK Don – no one is there. It’s the new Yankee Stadium ritual. Leave in the 6th inning because you know they’re going to lose.

    12. Raf
      May 20th, 2008 | 11:11 pm

      Still, it was pretty funny to see the announced attendance @ 51k, when you could tell that there probably wasn’t 1/2 that there tonight.

    13. baileywalk
      May 20th, 2008 | 11:31 pm

      Leave in the 6th inning because you know they’re going to lose.
      —-

      To be fair, the weather was miserable all day and it was empty from the first inning.

    14. May 20th, 2008 | 11:40 pm

      Weather, yeah, that “helped.” But, we see it now, a lot, on other days when the weather is not a factor.

    15. Joel
      May 21st, 2008 | 12:19 am

      Let’s all take a moment to chill. Have we not seen this movie before?

    16. Rich
      May 21st, 2008 | 1:15 am

      Let’s all take a moment to chill. Have we not seen this movie before?
      ___

      I think the extreme offensive futility is harder to watch because it can you feel that there is no chance to win if they fall behind by > 3 runs.

    17. OnceIWasAYankeeFan
      May 21st, 2008 | 8:51 am

      Let’s all take a moment to chill. Have we not seen this movie before?
      *********************

      Their win projection according to coolstandings.com (season simulation based on run differential) is 73.

      Baseball Prospectus has their win projection at 80 – before last night’s disaster.

      MLB.com has their expected wins exactly where they are – 20-25.

      I know last season they were underperforming their pythag. In the years they had poor starts, have they ever been right where they ‘deserve’ to be before?

    18. Joel
      May 21st, 2008 | 9:13 am

      This team will still score 900+ runs. There is way too much talent. The guys will get close to or match the back of their baseball cards.

      Things swing back to equilibrium. Hang in there. Someone’s gonna pay.

    19. OnceIWasAYankeeFan
      May 21st, 2008 | 12:40 pm

      This team will still score 900+ runs. There is way too much talent. The guys will get close to or match the back of their baseball cards.
      ____________________________

      That’s one rosy scenario, I must say. They currently project to score 652 runs, so that requires that they score 250 “extra” runs over the remaining 117 games, or 2.1 more runs per game. They are averaging 4.0 runs per game, so that means the target is a little over 6.0 runs per game.

      Last year’s team averaged just under 6 runs per game overall (5.97). So this team is going to outperform last year’s team over the remaining games, when last year’s scoring required the extraordinary contributions of A-Rod and Jorge?

      I’m not saying there’s no possible way it will happen, but it seems like a very long shot. If every regular on the roster manages to improve to “get close to or match the back of their baseball cards” then maybe. But that doesn’t look too likely, IMHO.

    20. OnceIWasAYankeeFan
      May 21st, 2008 | 12:44 pm

      One other thing – the Red Sox lead the league in scoring by a comfortable margin. But they only project to 837 runs.

      And the Yankees will score 900 after trailing so badly after 1/4+ of the season?

      You might want to reconfigure your projections for what is clearly a lesser-scoring league.

    21. Joel
      May 21st, 2008 | 2:32 pm

      –so that requires that they score 250 “extra” runs over the remaining 117 games, or 2.1 more runs per game. They are averaging 4.0 runs per game, so that means the target is a little over 6.0 runs per game.–

      Sounds about right.

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