Price: Hughes Out Two More Months
Via Ed Price -
Phil Hughes, on the disabled list since May 2, still has not been cleared to resume throwing. A CT scan taken last Thursday showed Hughes’ fractured rib has not healed, so he probably will not be ready to return before August.
Let’s assume that Hughes does return to game-action until August. If so, at best, between the minors and the majors, he’ll see about 10-12 starts and that probably means about 60 innings pitched (once he’s back). Using this projection, and adding the 22 major league innings that Hughes has already logged this season, it’s not a reach to suggest that, at best, Phil Hughes is going to throw less than 100 IP of “game action” this season.
Last year, between the majors and the minors, Hughes threw 110 innings. And, the season before that one (in 2006), Hughes threw 146 IP on the year. (And, he threw 86.3 IP in 2005.)
Line those up: 86.3 IP, 146 IP, 110 IP, and somewhere between 82 and 99 IP. What does this mean?
It means that there’s no way the Yankees can expect to get more than 150 IP from Hughes next season without running the risk of hurting his arm (in the long-term). That’s not going to cut it in the big league starting rotation. So, it leads to the question: Should Phil Hughes only be counted on to pitch long-relief, out of the Yanks pen, next season? I would suggest that may be a smart expectation to have…either that, or, let him pitch the full season (in 2009) in Triple-A, and then look for him to join the big league rotation in 2010 (when, hopefully, he can then be expected to shoulder a load of around 180 IP).
No doubt this is bad news. I’m sure right now Yankee fans wish it were Hughes going on a rehab assignment and Kennedy that was looking at an August return. I’d say the big offer to C.C. Sabathia is virtually assured, all things considered. That should help in the long-term but down the road the results may bring to mind Kevin Brown by the time his contract is up.
It will be interesting to see the approach they take with Hughes next season. Without him making a progression toward 170 innings, it might be smartest to keep him at AAA, pitching on limited innings/pitch counts and hope that you can stretch out his allowable innings so that he can be a difference-maker in September-October. But that’s not a plan befitting a “franchise” pitcher. Being the long-man isn’t befitting either though, and comes with its own problems, namely inconsistent/unpredictable work. So I’d recommend the AAA plan.
The alternative would be ignoring the claims of that SI writer and just deciding that he’s young, strong and (presumably) healthy enough to just pitch. It worked for a lot of younger guys in the past but nowadays no one has the stones to do it because pitching is such a precious commodity.
Of course I meant “short-term” help from C.C.
The Yanks could have Hughes throw a bunch of innings during winter ball this year to get up to an acceptable level.
Could Hughes follow the track that Joba did? If so, why not make Hughes the 8th inning guy and then transistion him next season like they did with Joba.
I sincerely hope the Yanks say no thanks to the 300 pound pitcher who was never as good as Johan Santana but will want to get paid like him.
~~The Yanks could have Hughes throw a bunch of innings during winter ball this year to get up to an acceptable level.~~
I would say the probability of the Yankees asking Hughes to pitch in winter ball is around 50% and the probability of Hughes accepting the request is around 30%.
Again, it’s not impossible. But, I just don’t see it happening. Personally, I think Hughes would melt under the conditions of winter ball. It’s not for the those used to top notch conditions and handling.
Now that Joba is being groomed as a starter, I think Hughes is kind of on the back burner anyway. That may help him as far as the expectations are concerned.
As far as next season, would Horne be in the mix to start as well?
As far as Sabathia, I think he is worth more right now than Santana is. Sabathia is a solid pitcher despite his struggles this season, I would think acquiring him would be like acquiring Andy Petitte in his prime. He has pitched 180+ innings for 7 straight seasons and his “stuff” is not showing signs of decline while Santana’s “stuff” is.
I don’t think his weight is an issue he’s still only 27 and you would probably only sign him until he was 35 tops. He’s a stocky guy who holds his weight well. I don’t think he’s as out of shape as Bartolo Colon or David Wells.
There certainly would be MUCH worse guys you could go after. The only issue is the price, you’d be paying more for great consistency then a dominant pitcher.
~~Could Hughes follow the track that Joba did? If so, why not make Hughes the 8th inning guy and then transistion him next season like they did with Joba.~~
Doubt it. As a starter, in the bigs, Hughes has allowed an OBA of .372 in his 1st inning of work. Plus, there’s a difference between throwing 98 for an inning, out of the pen, and throwing 91 – like Phil does.
Personally, I think Hughes would melt under the conditions of winter ball. It’s not for the those used to top notch conditions and handling.
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He’ll be fine, the facilities in Mexico, DR, VZ, etc, aren’t as bad as you think.
Having said that, it’s likely that he may get some innings in the AFL, time permitting.
You can never tell what people will find acceptable. Players complain about the lack of night life in Tucson during ST. Jermaine Dye didn’t like it because it was “too cold”.
That said, if the Yankees asked and he refused, I would be less than pleased.
Jesus, I don’t know where to start…
An offer to C.C. is not “assured.” I’d be surprised if they pursued him at all. He’s vastly overrated and at the money he’ll be seeking he becomes an absurdity.
Like M.J. said, C.C. was never as good as Santana, and still isn’t. Even with Johan’s diminished fastball, Sabathia isn’t in the same universe as Santana. I do not look at Sabathia as a true number-one starter.
“Plus, there’s a difference between throwing 98 for an inning, out of the pen, and throwing 91 – like Phil does.”
You mean like when he did in the playoffs? I seem to recall he was throwing 93-94, but whatever. His fastball is so Jamie Moyer-like, it’s worthless to talk about.
If they wanted, they could make Phil the setup man and he’d be fine, because he’s a talented pitcher and talented pitchers can get three outs. But they won’t.
I seriously doubt he’s going to winter ball (and not because of the “bad” conditions that would make a(n) (apparently) white-bread punk like Phil “melt” or his bratty “decline” of the offer). And he definitely won’t be pitching in the AFL, where he simply does not belong.
They’ll just let it play out however it plays out (with him possibly in the minors for a while). These things tend to work themselves out.
Bailey- I’m not sure the Yankees are going to go after Sabathia either but who would you rather have for the next 6 to 8 years if you had a choice: Sabathia or Santana?
August 2008, 2009, 2010…What’s the difference? We’re rebuilding, right?
Wake me when Phragile Phil can make 10 big league starts in a row. Maybe his fastball will hit 95 in rehab someplace.
In the meantime, checkbook please? Let’s get CC in pinstripes.
~~~Having said that, it’s likely that he may get some innings in the AFL, time permitting.~~~
I think Hughes has too much MLB service time to qualify for the AFL, no?
Bailey- I’m not sure the Yankees are going to go after Sabathia either but who would you rather have for the next 6 to 8 years if you had a choice: Sabathia or Santana?
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Neither. At $120-130+ million, neither is worth the investment 6-8 years down the line. Where did we get the idea that Sabathia would be the better bet? Apart from being one year younger (turns 28 next month; Santana turned 29 this past March), I would say he’s got more red flags around him. How can a 300 lb. man pitch effectively as he ages? Flexibility being inversely proportional to age, I imagine that Sabathia would age quickly once he can’t bend as deeply to get his leg drive. You want a fatty with the potential for back, knee, shoulder, and elbow problems on your books in the next several years?
PS – Ditto on Bailey’s comments to Steve.
We’re back to calling him spoiled and bratty? We’re assuming he wouldn’t like the accomodations? We’re assuming he’d refuse to do something his bosses told him to do? Based on what?
And as far as the velocity issue goes, I had no idea that you had to throw 97+ to be a good relief pitcher. Isn’t it just about getting outs, whichever way you can get them? Without even trying Hughes as a reliever later this year, why would we dismiss the idea? Especially if the goal is to get him innings and get him back into the fold.
How can you hate him so much?
~~~We’re back to calling him spoiled and bratty? We’re assuming he wouldn’t like the accomodations? We’re assuming he’d refuse to do something his bosses told him to do? Based on what?~~~
How many other players, with the big league career totals that Hughes has posted to date, have huge deals with Steiner Sports, their own blog, etc.? How many of those have been questioned in the past over their work ethic? I’m telling ya, the boy thinks he’s a big leaguer already and he’s done nothing to warrant it – at the MLB level.
I’ve mentioned in the past that I have a friend who is close to a key member of the Yankees. Earlier this year, I asked them about Hughes. Their response? “He needs to lose that big head of his.”
Based on all this, I suggested that it’s unlikely that he would accept an assignment to go to the Winter League – where the fans are rowdy, the streets and hotels are nasty, and there’s a language gap that’s huge. That’s just my opinion. You’re welcome to have another.
And as far as the velocity issue goes, I had no idea that you had to throw 97+ to be a good relief pitcher. Isn’t it just about getting outs, whichever way you can get them? Without even trying Hughes as a reliever later this year, why would we dismiss the idea? Especially if the goal is to get him innings and get him back into the fold.
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I think there is an advantage to being an intimidating fastball pitcher if you’re coming into games with men on base, but it’s not a necessity. Besides, it’s not like the current pen is shutting down the opposition and he’ll come in and ruin it.
Sabathia is a horse. The guy takes the ball all the time. The Yankees offense and the Stadium are a great fit for him. He’s good for 100 wins over the next 6 years.
Neither. At $120-130+ million, neither is worth the investment 6-8 years down the line.
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Exactly. I don’t want either at that price.
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“I’m telling ya, the boy thinks he’s a big leaguer already and he’s done nothing to warrant it – at the MLB level.”
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Well, he is a “big leaguer.” No one here “knows” Hughes — I don’t, and neither do you. So this is pure assumption — your “inside source” notwithstanding. I don’t know why you’re so hung up on his damn blog. Thousands of Yankee FANS have blogs and they don’t have a second of big-league service time. Why should an actual player not be allowed to blog (and mostly about non-baseball stuff, besides)? How does that make him some monster of an egomaniac? From everything I’ve read about Hughes, he’s a quiet, introverted guy who shies away from the louder social life of his peers. Your portrayal of him compared to what we see and hear (not just through the media but from personal interaction with him) is impossible to reconcile.
I mean, do you feel Joba thinks too much of himself with all of his magazine covers and commercials and TV specials? Or is it just horrible, horrible Phil Hughes?
There are a couple of factors that could work in favor of making the big money offer to Sabathia, a year after refusing to make the trade for Santana:
If the Yanks miss the playoffs – the desire to get a front line starter who is way past his “growing pains” will be that much greater – and you can add in the “new stadium” factor, too.
The possibility that Kennedy and Hughes, and to a lesser extent Joba, don’t excel right away means that Hank will be less sold on their talent going forward, and therefore more likely to look elsewhere.
As some have recognized, the Yankees are “rebuilding” – what happens if they miss the playoffs while doing that and the great young talent doesn’t engender a lot of hope for the future? Anyone think that Hank will accept two years of rebuilding?
Anyone think that Hank will accept two years of rebuilding?
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Hopefully, Hank won’t accept 2 more months of this “rebuilding” idiocy and will bring in the 28 year-old, left-handed Cy Young award winner.
~~And as far as the velocity issue goes, I had no idea that you had to throw 97+ to be a good relief pitcher. Isn’t it just about getting outs, whichever way you can get them?~~
Fine, forget the MPH comment – ignore it. Just as everyone else seems to want to ignore that 1st IP of work OBA allowed of .372 too.
Neither. At $120-130+ million, neither is worth the investment 6-8 years down the line.
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Exactly. I don’t want either at that price.
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The question wasn’t what whether you are willing to pay the money…the question is who would you RATHER have for the next 6 to 8 years, Sabathia or Santana?
It is purely a baseball related question, I’m not saying the Yankees should have or should go after either one.
If you HAD to pick one who would you pick and since you want to say neither than after you pick one of those then I would like to know who you would like to trot out there every 5 days?
I would say the probability of the Yankees asking Hughes to pitch in winter ball is around 50% and the probability of Hughes accepting the request is around 30%.
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And Steve hits an even higher level of arrogance in my opinion. You know Hughes so well as a human, it must be true if you write it.
What’s your “probability” that your anti-Hughes blinders had something to do with your calculation?
It’s more becoming of you when you’re blaming Cashman for everything.
Funny how almost everything became about C.C. instead of what to do with Hughes if he is on a short innings limit. Should he be a long man or stay in AAA?
Mr. Breakable, Phil Hughes.
I’d love to see the Yanks pick up C.C., but you know, 28 y/o, left handed Cy Young winners are a dime a dozen, so we’ll just pick up the next one that is on the market.
If Hughes is pitching well in his rehab, and there isn’t a starting spot for him, why not pitch him out of the pen, but that also might be determined by where they are in the race.
How many other players, with the big league career totals that Hughes has posted to date, have huge deals with Steiner Sports…
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A good person, a better person than Phil Hughes, would’ve known to turn down a memorabilia sponsorship contract because of the message it would send. But bad, bad, bratty Hughes signed the deal anyway. Oh jeez. You’re picking on him because a business thought his name was marketable and offered him a contract to hawk their products?
Two interesting pieces of news today:
With Victor Martinez on the shelf after elbow surgery, the Times believes that Sabathia will be made available and that the Yanks will be very interested.
Hughes is still two weeks from starting a throwing program and therefore looking at mid to late August before he’d be ready. I thought it was strange when I read one report that said he’d been cleared to start throwing in two weeks. That’s not a typical medical call – either he’s ready now, or he isn’t. If he isn’t, you say he should be ready in two weeks, pending another MRI. I’ve never seen a team give clearance to throw two weeks later without knowing that what is keeping him from throwing today is actually fully healed.
I think Hughes has too much MLB service time to qualify for the AFL, no?
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Could be, I don’t know if they go by days on a roster or innings pitched. Either way, it seems that he may not be eligible.
On Hughes, hey, it’s just my opinion, based on feel that’s a result of watching and reading about baseball since 1973. Could I be wrong? Sure. It’s happened before. And, if I am wrong, I will admit it – and take my lumps. But, for now, I still feel strongly about this.
How about ya’ll? If it turns out that my gut is correct on Hughes, will you all then come back and kiss my behind in an appropriate fashion?