According to the Complete Baseball Encyclopedia, Robinson Cano has -21 RCAA as of this morning (with an Offensive Winning Percentage of .203). That’s really bad. How bad is it? Put it this way: In 2005, for the Yankees, Tony Womack had -23 RCAA in 351 Plate Apperances.
Last season, on the year, Cano had 11 RCAA and an OWP of .552 in 669 PA. So, to date, we’re looking at a downward swing of 34 RCAA for Robby – between the two seasons.
This is not unheard of in Yankeeland. Scott Brosius went from 22 RCAA in 1998 to -10 RCAA in 1999. And, Tino Martinez went from 7 RCAA in 1999 to -16 RCAA in 2000. And, Paul O’Neill went from 6 RCAA in 1999 to -16 RCAA in 2000 as well. But, all those guys were near the end of their career when this happened. And, Cano is only 25-years old.
Let’s go outside Yankeeland for a moment. In 1995, Carlos Baerga was a 26-years old second baseman. At that time, some people were calling him the next Rogers Hornsby. And, in 1995, Carlos had 15 RCAA. But, the next season, in 1996, Baerga dropped down to -32 RCAA. And, his days as a full-time player, and productive hitter, were over before his 30th bithday.
I’m not saying that Cano is going to follow the path of Baerga. But, if what we’re seeing now from Cano is what we’re going to see from here out, it won’t be the first time a “can’t miss” offensive second baseman became toast just as fast as he became the toast of the town.
4 Responses to “Cano: Womack-Like Now, Baerga-Like Later?”
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June 15th, 2008 at 2:28 pm
Thanks for looking into this Steve. Man, Baerga, that’s a scary career comparison. I just don’t understand how a player can drop off as dramatically as Cano has. Hopefully it’s just a mental thing and he’ll get over it.
June 15th, 2008 at 3:52 pm
I’m not at all surprised at Cano’s struggles. This is what happens to walkaphobic non HR hitters.
When a player has the kind of AVGs that Cano had, but the low RCAA figures, relative to those AVGs, it is very rare for the player to have more than a few token good years.
I hope he does become Carlos Baerga. I’m not in front of the computer at the moment, so I can’t look it up, but memory says Baerga had somewhere around -25 career RCAA. I see Cano being much worse than that when his final figures are in.
June 16th, 2008 at 11:01 am
I just don’t understand how a player can drop off as dramatically as Cano has.
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Given that his game relies on putting the ball in play, it’s not surprising. He still hasn’t learned to control the strike zone, and I don’t think he ever will.
June 22nd, 2008 at 9:59 pm
[...] the Mid Summer Classic will look like. At the same time, they wonder if Yankees second baseman Robinson Cano is going to turn into Carlos Baerga the sequel. I’d love to argue this point, but if Robbie’s plate discipline doesn’t [...]