Yanks Now To Win 87 Games This Season?
On March 27, 2008, I wrote:
I’m predicting that the Yankees will win 92 games this season.
However, I quickly followed that with this qualifer:
Now, I expect 37% of those wins to be credited to the pitching records of Andy Pettitte and Worm Killer Wang. So, if something should happen to one or both of them, well, then all bets are off.
If one of the two goes down for half the season, then the Yankees only win about 87 games this season.
Do I still feel that way now? Yes. Why? Look at it this way:
The Yankees have played 70 games to date – winning 37 of them. They have 92 games remaining this season. That’s about 18 starts left, each, for Pettitte, Mussina, Chamberlain, Rasner and a pitcher to be named.
I’m going to give Pettitte, Mussina and Chamberlain the benefit of the doubt and say all three pitch well for the remainder of the season. If true, the three of them should win about 27 more games this season. Rasner and the starter to be named? You have to be conservative here. Maybe you get another 12 wins from these “two” from now to season end.
Do the math: 37+27+12=76
Yes, 76 is less than 87 – by 11 – but, those are wins that I think will come out of the bullpen.
Could the Yankees still win 90+ games this year? Sure, but, it will require Rasner and the pitcher to be named to have very good seasons for New York – from here out. Maybe Rasner can do it? But, the other guy? Shoot, we don’t even know who that person is now, do we?
Steve,
I’m not sure what’s different about this post than some of the others, but to be honest I was able to read through it and not say, “Here he goes again…” at all.
These are the posts I grew accustomed to. No, you don’t have to kiss ass in your posts and you can tell it like it is plenty. The tone isn’t as I want to say “smug,” but I’m sure there’s a better word. I feel like before it was always, “See I told you I’m right.” This post brings us back to the norm, in my honest opinion. You ever referenced yourself and I didn’t cringe (which you have always done). I like the “Hmm, maybe I was being generous with my prediction.” I disagree and think the Yanks will be fine, but I don’t feel insulted. Let’s get back to that.
Nice job by the Mets… sheesh!
Every year it seems like the year that the Yankees are doomed due to a key injury. While Wang is a very key loss, this team should be able to bash their way through a few high scoring games. It’s time for the big money guys to step up. If you get Rasner and pitcher #5 to just keep them in games, it certainly takes a little bit of the pressure off of Pettitte, etc. So Steve I guess I would disagree with your comments a bit even though I don’t have the statistical backing…
If you get league average (or even just a touch worse) production from Rasner and #5 and get to the runs level we had all assumed, they are in the hunt for the playoffs. This actually has been the formula the past few years. Maybe this year is the year they don’t do it.
Making a win prediction for the year with a big qualifier is like going to a bookie and telling him I want $10 for horse X to win but I want you to give me my money back if the horse doesn’t finish first. It’s wimping out, I’m sorry I didn’t see that post when you originally made it.
~~It’s wimping out, I’m sorry I didn’t see that post when you originally made it.~~
I disagree. It’s not wimping out. It’s explaining the basis of the predicted win total and saying that, without that basis, the win total will not happen.
Basura, if you don’t see that, I have to suggest that you’re just looking for reasons to bash me about something.
I’m sorry if my writing comes across as bashing you, I’m trying to disagree with you. It’s nice you explained how you arrived at your 92 win amount but there’s always injuries during a season. Who knows what new ones will crop up over the next 3 months.
To me you’re a “results” type of guy and hold people to a high level of performance, I was surprised you left yourself so many escape hatches in your predictions. I can understand not expecting a plane crash with a team onboard but to expect a pitching staff to go through a season unscathed?
Do you still stand by your 87 (non-Wang) win prediction? If the Yanks finish with 92 wins is your prediction wrong?
yes.
I don’t see it as Steve trying to give himself escapes from his prediction.
To me it is more of IF/THEN situation and Steve going through all possible scenarios in his mind….IF this happens THEN this many wins…IF that happens THEN this many wins…
I don’t think it is trying to make sure the prediction is right…to me Steve is just telling us his expectations of the team IF certain things fall the way they do.
Of course he would know better than I would!