I’ll make the less quantitative argument that A-Rod’s contribution to the Yankee offense transcends what he alone does at the plate. Beyond getting on base and protecting hitters around him in the lineup, I really do think that the team has gained a certain swagger now that their reigning MVP is back. For example, I’m pretty sure Giambi feels like more a badass when he’s hitting behind A-Rod. I mean, he literally has the best view in the world of A-Rod’s immaculate swing from the on-deck circle. That’s got to pump a guy like him up.

^ because he’s too good a hitter, that’s why. he has a career .800 OPS. and hitters tend to improve through their mid 20s, not decline.

but you’re just playing devil’s advocate, aren’t you?

~~And I don’t think Cano is going to be batting to a .600 OPS over the rest of the season~~

Why not?

~~I think they can be expected to get to 5.5 runs/game.~~

If Jeter, Cano, and Melky continue to slump – and if Abreu continues to be just OK, then the Yankees are going to need Posada, Damon, Giambi, Matsui and A-Rod to be red hot, to get that 5.5, no?

That’s the thing about depth – not all the Yankees have to be on a hot streak all at once. As good as Matsui was in April and May (.337/.417/.495) he’s been as bad in June (.260/.351/.340). But we don’t notice it, because Giambi and A-Rod have 1.300 OPS’s in June (not to disrespect Damon, who has a 1.043 OPS in June, and a .454 average since May 21, which is ridiculous).

And I don’t think Cano is going to be batting to a .600 OPS over the rest of the season, and while Jeter looks like he’s having the worst season of his career, I wouldn’t bet against him hitting around .300, the fabled “back of the baseball card” over the rest of the season.

They don’t all have to hit like mad, they have to hit like they were projected to from the beginning of the season. 4.5 runs per game goes to 729 runs/season, which is awful. 5.5 runs per game is a much more respectable 891 runs/season. If you keep the Yankees runs allowed at 4.4 runs/game (from your post) and scores 5.5, that works out to a run differential of 891-713 on the season, a .600 winning percentage, and a 97-65 overall record.

I think the Yankees would take that kind of performance. The Yankees scored 968 runs last year (5.98 runs/game). With the same exact team, just one year later, I think they can be expected to get to 5.5 runs/game.

~~~This Yankees team CAN win even with a 4.5 runs/game pitching staff.~~~

Only if Damon, Posada, Matsui, Giambi, and A-Rod keep hitting like mad. Is that possible?

A month ago, you were sure it was the pitching that needed to get better in order for the Yankees to have a competitive team. I argued that the Yankees were 1 run/game away from being a competitive team: either they needed to improve their pitching to a 3.5 runs/game effort, improve their hitting to a 5.5 runs/game effort, or improve both about 0.5 runs per game.

Sure enough, the Yankees offense has improved by one run/game, and the Yankees have gone 19-9 since A-Rod’s return. This Yankees team CAN win even with a 4.5 runs/game pitching staff.

I think its the success of Damon and Giambi, two guys who finished last season with big question marks hovering above them, that’s been most important.

It’s certainly possible right now that the Yankees can slug their way to the post-season again. But there’s another troublesome stat – the ratio of starter innings to relief innings is second worst in the league, trailing only the Rangers.

Can they survive that in the long term? Can Pettitte and Joba appreciably change that stat with Wang out? Or will overuse of the bullpen result in more soul-crushing implosions in August-September?

Its going to be an interesting summer.