Klapisch: Jeter’s Decline Is Insidious
From Bob Klapisch – following the Yankees loss yesterday:
But there’s no work-around for the slow, insidious decline in Derek Jeter’s performance, one which will eventually bring the Yankees to a brutal, crossroads decision.
At what point will the Bombers decide they can no longer afford to a light-hitting, heavy-strikeout presence in the No. 2 spot? Even more pressing is Jeter’s shrinking range and the need to someday move him out of shortstop.
One major league scout wondered out loud, “Who in that organization is going to be the one to make the move [to shift Jeter to another position]. Who has enough juice to do that?”
Even Jeter’s arm, once his strongest asset in the field, seems to be abandoning him at times now. His throwing error in the first inning doomed Pettitte, although the left-hander said, “I was just awful out there. I couldn’t command anything; my location was terrible.”
Still, things might have been different if Jeter, who recently turned 34, was able to complete what appeared to be a routine, inning-ending double play off the bat Manny Ramirez.
However…
In his last 20 games, Jeter is batting .304 (with an OBA of .382). Further, he was only whiffed 9 times in 90 PA during these 20 games. Additionally, this season, with RISP, Jeter has the following BA/OBA/SLG line: .307/.372/.413 (in 88 PA). And, with a runner on 3rd and 2 outs, Derek’s line is .400/.438/.533 (in 16 PA).
Yes, for a while this season, Jeter looked bad. But, he’s come around lately.
Steve,
This is a late post but I was looking for the appropriate place to leave this comment about Jeter. As anyone can see, his offensive numbers are way down this year. The sad thing is that his numbers do not begin to capture his decline.
He hit into his 14th recorded DP in today’s game @ Toronto. I say recorded because he should have had at least a 2nd DP but Scutaro booted the play. It is possible he hit into a 3rd DP later but got a close call at first. I am aware of no less than 5 instances in the last month when Jeter escaped a GIDP becuse of an error by a SS or 2B.
On his actual GIDP’s alone, he has now matched or exceeded his annual totals in all but 3 years in his career. He trails only noted speedsters Lyle Overbay and Jhonny Peralta in the AL. If even half of the botched DPs were completed, he’d lead the league.
There was stretch in late May when DJ should have had a negative BA – he erased more runners hitting into DP’s then times he got a hit.
Jeter is not only no longer a mid-teens HR hitter, he is no longer a line drive hitter. His GO/AO is 2.31, which is very high but he managed to hit.343 in ’06 with ground/fly ratio of 2.83. He has alway hit a lot of ground balls – just not as many straight to short or 2nd with a man on.
On the defensive side, its a pity we don’t have a stat for “would have been a DP if the throw had been on the mark.” I can think of 6 or 7 so far. There may be more. Yes a good 1B probably catches Jeter’s throw last night that Posada couldn’t but it was a routine play, not a rushed turn at 2nd. Jeter should have hit Posada on the nose.
Everyone is entitled to an off year. If we wrote off Posada after ’05 or ’06, we have missed a big year in ’07. But then that came with a 4 year tail.
If Jeter comes back with a more Jeter like year in ’09, how long will his tail be?