The Three Faces Of The Yankees Season

When looking at the Yankees season, to date, it’s hard not to slice it into these three pieces:

Season Slice		Games	Wins	Losses	RS/G	RA/G
April 1 to May 20		45	20	25	4.02	4.64
May 21 to June 19		28	20	8	5.86	4.00
June 20 To July 6		16	7	9	4.50	4.56
Totals			89	47	42	4.69	4.43

As you can see, above, sans that four week run from May 21st through June 19th, the Yankees have had some issues this season (so far).

So, what happened from May 21st to June 19th? Let’s start at the beginning – meaning May 21st.

On the morning of May 21st, the Yankees woke up and found themselves riding a streak were they had lost 6 of 7 games – including getting their fannies kicked the day before (May 20th) by the Orioles (losing 12-2). Well, when you consider that the Yanks were 19-19 before going into that seven game slide, you could say that May 20th was a low point for the Yankees season – at least at that time.

In terms of individual players, who on the Yankees was on a tear during the four-week hot streak that followed this low point?

The following Yankees batters were on fire during that streak:
(Stat lines shown are BA/OBA/SLG.)

Alex Rodriguez .379/.472/.728 in 103 AB
Jason Giambi .333/.440/.714 in 84 AB
Jorge Posada .344/.512/.562 in 32 AB
Johnny Damon .446/.488/.571 in 112 AB
Hideki Matsui .352/.441/.455 in 88 AB

Basically, half of the Yankees line-up was swinging the bat like Babe Ruth during this run.

And, the following Yankees pitchers were on fire during that streak:

Joba Chamberlain – 7 games (4 starts), 23.6 IP, 1.90 ERA
Jose Veras – 14 games, 14.3 IP, 2.51 ERA
Mo Rivera – 15 games, 16 IP, 1.12 ERA

That’s it. Just those three.

Now, Darrell Rasner (6 GS, 35 IP, 3.86 ERA), Andy Pettitte (6 GS, 41.3 IP, 4.14 ERA), and Mike Mussina (5 GS, 31 IP, 3.48 ERA) were solid during this period too. But, they were not pitching like Pedro Martinez in his prime either.

Clearly, the Yankees went on that 20-8 run (from May 21st to June 19th) because their bats went crazy. During this time, as a team, the Yankees had a BA/OBA/SLG line of .301/.373/.468 (in 1,122 PA).

And, actually, if you look at the Yankees pitching, all season, to date, their RA/G mark has been, pretty much, around four to four-and-half runs – during good times and bad.

What does this all mean? To me, it means the following: In order for the Yankees to put together a prolonged streak where they’re going to win two out of every three games, New York is going to need half of their starting line-up (at the same time) to bat way over their heads.

This is what happened from from May 21st to June 19th. Damon, A-Rod, Giambi, Matsui and Posada were reaching base half of the time they came to the plate – simultaneously – albeit due to a lucky hot streak or facing poor pitching.

Now, don’t get me wrong. It doesn’t have to be these guys. If Cano, Jeter, Gardner, Abreu and Melky want each bat between .340 and .400, at the same time, for a period of four weeks or more, that will probably help the Yankees put together a nice winning streak.

Or, I suppose, it doesn’t have to be half the line-up going crazy…it could be six or seven guys batting very well at the same time. That would probably work too. But, it cannot be a situation where only three guys on the team are hitting and the rest are so-so.

Bottom line, somehow, the Yankees need to start scoring 5+ runs a game – if they want to go on a long winning streak. As we have seen, when New York scores closer to 4 runs per game, given their pitching, they’re just a .500 team.

Now, the one thing that scares me here is that, during that 20-8 run, the Yankees went 9-0 against the Seattle, Houston and San Diego (during the period from May 23rd through June 19th). And, New York really pounded M’s, Astros and Padres pitching during this time.

In the aforementioned period, the Yankees scored 10.3 R/G against Seattle, 7.7 R/G against Houston, and 6.0 R/G against San Diego. That’s huge – and it may explain that mark of 5.86 runs scored per game from May 21st to June 19th.

What do you think? Based on all these statistics, could this small pocket of success for the Yankees (this season), where their bats carried the Yankees on a winning streak, all just be the product of beating up on three weak teams…and, on the whole, when facing decent to tough competition, the Yankees are just a .500 team (or less)?

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