67 Bottles Of Beer On The Wall

Anthony McCarron of the Daily News does a great job at pulling together all the numbers for the Yankees at this moment:

The third-place Yankees are one game better than they were last season after 95 games, when they went 45-22 (.672) over their last 67 games to win the AL wild card at 94-68. But some might argue that many of their players are not only a year older now, but also a year less effective.

If you believe that 94 victories will get them a playoff spot this year, that means they must go 44-23 (.657) in the second half.

Here are some other numbers to keep in mind: 43 of the Yanks’ remaining games are against teams currently above .500, including nine each against the Red Sox and Angels and six against the Rays. Thirteen of their remaining 21 series are against winning teams. Their second-half opponents have a .536 winning percentage. Seven of their next eight series are against teams that were over .500 at the break, which could challenge Girardi’s desire to “Get out of the gate fast.”

The Yankees play 13 of their next 16 games at Yankee Stadium, but 32 of their last 51 are on the road. The Yankees (23-23) are one of six teams at .500 or better on the road.

After leading baseball last season by scoring 5.98 runs per game, the Yanks are averaging 4.59 this season, thanks perhaps equally to injuries and ineffectiveness. They have scored three runs or less 42 times this season - the same total as all of last year.

They have lost Alex Rodriguez, Jorge Posada, Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui to injury for stretches, but they are also awful with runners in scoring position - 26th in baseball with a .713 OPS (on-base percentage plus slugging percentage) with RISP. The four teams below them on that list are San Diego, Seattle, Toronto and Washington. Toronto entered the break one game under .500, but the others are the three worst clubs in baseball. The major-league average OPS-with-RISP is .756.

Sorta backs-up what Bob Klapisch wrote ten days ago. The Yankees are going to need some serious magic to make it to October in 2008. Maybe it’s time to start “selling” now - rather than to wait another week and then make the call?

For example, you probably could have sold Mussina on going to the Phillies - because it’s close to home for him and they are contending. (Plus, it’s a chance to team up with Jamie Moyer!) But, now that the Phils have acquired Joe Blanton, there’s less urgency/need there today and you’re not going to get as much back for Moose.

Sometimes, just like when you’re selling tickets to a game, it’s not best to wait until the last possible minute to sell. In those spots, you often end up selling at a discount.

The Yankees only have a few chips to trade - like Mussina and Farnsworth. Sure, they could try to move Giambi and Abreu too - but those are going to be harder sells…for many reasons. It would be a shame to see the value of those chips spoil in the store display window, no?

July 18, 2008 | Filed Under Trap Door Items

Comments

12 Responses to “67 Bottles Of Beer On The Wall”

TurnTwo on July 18th, 2008 10:25 am

for better or worse, the yankees will never sell at the deadline.

but, were I Brian Cashman, Id give the Dodgers a call knowing they were trying to give away Matt Kemp in a Sabathia deal, and let Joe Torre know he can have Andy Pettitte for the second half at the right price.

otherwise, i dont think you’d get much for Moose, Abreu, Farnsworth, and Giambi anyway.. at least not enough in value to supplant the talent youd get if you just take the draft picks at the end of the year when they go, or to massage the angry fan base for giving up on the season in the last year of the original Stadium.
Joel on July 18th, 2008 10:27 am

“Dear 4+ million fans: As you know, we’re 6 games out of the division lead and 5 games out of the wildcard. Many of you are paying hundreds and thousands of dollars for tickets, and we cerainly appreciate your support. But we’re closing up shop and selling quality players because we have determined that your $209 million Yankees with three first ballot hall of famers will be unable to beat out the Tampa Bay Rays.”

Thank you.
Steve Lombardi on July 18th, 2008 10:45 am

Joel - LOL. I hear what you’re saying…

but…If the Yankees have a chance to pull a John Smoltz for Doyle Alexander or Jeff Bagwell for Larry Anderson type deal…I think Yankees fans will be OK with that now.

Then again, that’s asking a lot with Cashman…see the Sheffield deal. Selling has not been one of Cash’s better traits.
Raf on July 18th, 2008 11:00 am

They can make the playoffs this year, but a lot has to go right. The pitching has been better than expected, but the offense has been lacking. Cano, Cabrera & Co need to figure things out, and quick.
bfriley76 on July 18th, 2008 11:51 am

Then again, that’s asking a lot with Cashman…see the Sheffield deal. Selling has not been one of Cash’s better traits.
===

Steve…just wondering what you would have considered a good sell in the Sheffield case? Seems to me they got a decent haul for a 38 year-old malcontent who was coming off an injury and has since shown serious signs of breakdown.

Sanchez seems to be throwing well on his way back from surgery and Clagget numbers look pretty good (though I would prefer fewer walks) down in Trenton.
butchie22 on July 18th, 2008 12:02 pm

McCarron did a nice job. The thing with Toronto is that their pitching is so dominant that they can win without scoring that much (although if their RISP was league average then they would be up with the Rays and Red Sox), witness the last two losses the Yanks had in Toronto. The Yankees problem is that the starting pitching is not that dominant so that RISP becomes a major problem in winning games.

The Yanks are still in striking distance of the division and wild card,but quite frankly things are different this year. AS McCarron states everyone is a year older and there is no deus ex machina a la Clemens coming in to save the day. Is Cashman going to shift his philosophy and go and get someone like Randy Wolf or another hitter? If that happens their chances are increased greatly,if not they are somewhat doomed.
OnceIWasAYankeeFan on July 18th, 2008 12:52 pm

Seven of their next eight series are against teams that were over .500 at the break, which could challenge Girardi’s desire to “Get out of the gate fast.”
_______________

Related to this is the Rays schedule coming out of the break:
Five of seven series against teams under .500, and one of the other two is underachieving Detroit. There’s a good chance that the Rays right their ship in the next 20+ games, which means if the Yankees don’t excel against their tougher schedule, they could find themselves facing a steeper uphill climb. Depending of course on how the third contender in the division does.

The fact is though that no one will decide to sell prior to the deadline. Cash has to see where they stand - then you might see Mussina go to the Cards or something like that. But realistically, if the Yankees are going to make it to October, they’ll dance with the guys that brung them before. Cano, Jeter, etc. have to pick it up offensively, and the pitching has to maintain. Then they’ll have a chance.
Steve Lombardi on July 18th, 2008 1:53 pm

~~Steve…just wondering what you would have considered a good sell in the Sheffield case?~~

Something, anything, that would be a useful part - even if it’s just off the bench - at the major league level today.

That trade was made on November 10, 2006. And, here we are, almost 2 years later, and not one of those guys that Cashman got is near being close to helping the big league team.
OnceIWasAYankeeFan on July 18th, 2008 2:09 pm

The ironic thing is he made the trade to keep Sheffield out of Boston - and did the Sox a favor in the process. They won a world championship anyway, have a shot at repeating, and aren’t on the hook to a guy who has had multiple injury problems and the Tigers are still on the hook to him for what, at least one more year, or is it two?
Pete on July 18th, 2008 2:54 pm

With Bruney coming back, I’d definitely look to deal Farnsworth.
TurnTwo on July 18th, 2008 3:46 pm

“That trade was made on November 10, 2006. And, here we are, almost 2 years later, and not one of those guys that Cashman got is near being close to helping the big league team.”

patience.

Anthony Claggett has pitched very well for Trenton this year, and Humberto Sanchez has been working his way back from TJ surgery.

The organization knew what it was getting in the deal, but the upside with Sanchez will be worth the wait.

Kevin Whelan was a decent prospect, but hasnt stayed healthy.

but even if you can hit on one of the three pitchers, mainly being Sanchez, you’ve done well. by all reports coming out of Tampa following Humberto’s rehab, he’s pitched better each time he’s taken the mound. you prob wont see him in game action at the mlb level until spring training next year, but he could play a large part in that bullpen should they choose to convert him for good.
skyking162 on July 18th, 2008 3:47 pm

Don’t sell. There are some hitters under-achieving: Cano, Jeter, Abreu a bit. ARod shouldn’t miss more time. Wang will be back. Hughes may help. Posada may stay healthy and at least be competent.

The biggest sink holes on this team are behind the plate and in right field. Nobody would want Abreu even if the Yankees did try to sell him, as he’s barely been above replacement level including fielding. Jose Molina is NOT a viable catching option. Melky’s still not improving either — trading him for someone like Adam Dunn might work.

The playoffs surely aren’t a lock. But this team should play better in the second half.