In 2007, Mike Mussina had an ERA of 5.15 on the season – and he was a below league average pitcher…as he allowed 8 more runs created than what an average pitcher would have allowed.
This season, it’s a different story for Mussina. And, it’s happening for him as a 39-year old. Why?
In 2007, Mike Mussina’s K/BB ratio was 2.60 – which was the lowest mark in this measure for Mussina since 1994. However, this season, to date, Mussina’s K/BB ratio is 4.63 (in 113.3 IP).
Coming into this season, Mussina’s career K/BB ratio was 3.53.
I decided to go back and look at every pitcher, since 1996, with at least 20 starts, who had a K/BB ratio of 4.5 (or better) to see how many of these pitchers had good seasons – in terms of saving runs above average. Via the Complete Baseball Encyclopedia, here’s the list:
PITCHER YEAR RSAA GS SO/BB IP Pedro Martinez 2000 77 29 8.88 217.0 Pedro Martinez 1999 71 29 8.46 213.3 Roger Clemens 1997 69 34 4.29 264.0 Pedro Martinez 1997 65 31 4.55 241.3 Randy Johnson 2002 62 35 4.70 260.0 Randy Johnson 1999 60 35 5.20 271.6 Randy Johnson 2001 59 34 5.24 249.6 Randy Johnson 2000 57 35 4.57 248.6 Greg Maddux 1998 55 34 4.53 251.0 Johan Santana 2004 54 34 4.91 228.0 Pedro Martinez 2003 53 29 4.38 186.6 Kevin Brown 1996 53 32 4.82 233.0 Greg Maddux 1997 51 33 8.85 232.6 Randy Johnson 2004 50 35 6.59 245.6 Javier Vazquez 2003 48 34 4.23 230.6 Curt Schilling 2001 47 35 7.51 256.6 Pedro Martinez 2002 47 30 5.98 199.3 Greg Maddux 2000 45 35 4.52 249.3 Greg Maddux 1996 45 35 6.14 245.0 Ben Sheets 2004 45 34 8.25 237.0 Roy Halladay 2003 45 36 6.38 266.0 Jason Schmidt 2003 44 29 4.52 207.6 Johan Santana 2006 44 34 5.21 233.6 Andy Pettitte 2005 43 33 4.17 222.3 Kevin Brown 2000 43 33 4.60 230.0 Mark Prior 2003 42 30 4.90 211.3 Curt Schilling 2004 42 32 5.80 226.6 C.C. Sabathia 2007 41 34 5.65 241.0 Curt Schilling 1998 40 35 4.92 268.6 John Smoltz 1996 40 35 5.02 253.6 Roy Oswalt 2006 39 32 4.37 220.6 Johan Santana 2005 39 33 5.29 231.6 Chris Carpenter 2005 39 33 4.18 241.6 Kevin Brown 1998 38 35 5.24 257.0 Josh Beckett 2007 36 30 4.85 200.6 Curt Schilling 2002 36 35 9.58 259.3 Greg Maddux 2001 35 34 6.41 233.0 Curt Schilling 2003 34 24 6.06 168.0 Mike Mussina 2001 34 34 5.10 228.6 Curt Schilling 1997 34 35 5.50 254.3 Mike Mussina 1997 33 33 4.04 224.6 Pedro Martinez 2005 32 31 4.43 217.0 Chris Carpenter 2006 32 32 4.28 221.6 Javier Vazquez 2001 31 32 4.73 223.6 Brad Radke 2004 31 34 5.50 219.6 Jeff Fassero 1996 30 34 4.04 231.6 Roy Oswalt 2001 29 20 6.00 141.6 Bret Saberhagen 1999 28 22 7.36 119.0 John Smoltz 2007 26 32 4.19 205.6 David Wells 1998 23 30 5.62 214.3 Jose Lima 1999 23 35 4.25 246.3 Aaron Harang 2007 23 34 4.19 231.6 Javier Vazquez 2007 23 32 4.26 216.6 Cole Hamels 2007 23 28 4.12 183.3 Mike Mussina 2003 23 31 4.88 214.6 Mike Mussina 2000 23 34 4.57 237.6 David Wells 2000 22 35 5.35 229.6 Jake Peavy 2005 21 30 4.32 203.0 Johan Santana 2007 21 33 4.52 219.0 Carlos Silva 2005 20 27 7.89 188.3 Mike Mussina 1998 20 29 4.27 206.3 Odalis Perez 2002 18 32 4.08 222.3 Mike Mussina 2006 18 32 4.91 197.3 Jon Lieber 1999 17 31 4.04 203.3 Curt Schilling 2007 17 24 4.39 151.0 Randy Johnson 2005 17 34 4.49 225.6 Rick Reed 1998 16 31 5.28 212.3 Ben Sheets 2005 16 22 5.64 156.6 Curt Schilling 2006 15 31 6.54 204.0 Shane Reynolds 1999 15 35 5.32 231.6 Brad Radke 2001 15 33 5.27 226.0 Chris Carpenter 2004 14 28 4.00 182.0 Jose Lima 1998 13 33 5.28 233.3 Greg Maddux 2004 13 33 4.58 212.6 Rick Reed 2002 12 32 4.65 188.0 Andy Pettitte 2001 11 31 4.00 200.6 Mike Mussina 2008 11 20 4.63 113.3 Jamie Shields 2007 10 31 5.11 215.0 Brad Radke 2005 8 31 5.09 200.6 Shane Reynolds 1996 7 35 4.64 239.0 Jon Lieber 2002 5 21 7.25 141.0 David Wells 2003 5 30 5.05 213.0 David Wells 2004 5 31 5.05 195.6 Rick Reed 2001 4 32 4.58 202.3 Steve Woodard 1998 4 26 4.09 165.6 John Burkett 1997 3 30 4.63 189.3 Brad Radke 2003 3 33 4.29 212.3 David Bush 2006 2 32 4.37 210.0 Jon Lieber 2004 2 27 5.67 176.6 Jamie Shields 2008 1 20 4.33 129.3 Javier Vazquez 2005 0 33 4.17 215.6 David Wells 2005 -1 30 5.10 184.0 Jon Lieber 2006 -5 27 4.17 168.0 Greg Maddux 2007 -5 34 4.16 198.0 Eric Milton 2002 -9 29 4.03 171.0
As you can see, since 1996, roughly 95% of the time, when a starting pitcher posts a K/BB ratio of 4.5+, he’s going to have a good season. So, with this “command” (K/BB) rate that Mussina is featuring this season, it makes sense that he’s having a good season.
Now, the question is: Can Moose repeat this magic in 2009?
Well, according to my research, in the entire history of modern day baseball – meaning since 1900 – there’s only been one pitcher, ever, age 39 or older, to have consecutive seasons of 20+ starts with a K/BB ratio of 4.5+…and that’s David Wells (who did it from 2003 through 2005).
Can Mike Mussina match Wells’ feat – by doing what he’s doing now again next season? He might…he just might…but, it’s not a lock. If Moose was eight to ten years younger, I’d like his chances to repeat his performance. But, at his age, it’s probably a coin flip as to whether or not he can repeat this “command” again in 2009.
4 Responses to “The Magic Moose”
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July 20th, 2008 at 8:06 am
Thats exactly why you let him walk. Get the 2 draft picks ( hopefully ) and say thank you for 8 quality years.
I think he has more good years in him though. Especially in the National League.
Mussina pitching for Torre or in San Diego could be interesting.
July 20th, 2008 at 8:36 am
At this stage of his career, and given the age of his kids, I don’t think Mussina would ever play for a West Coast team. If anything, for him, I think it’s Yankees or Phillies – or, maybe, if we really wants the cash and the career wins, the Mets or Indians too. Maybe there’s a wild shot that he would pull a Cone or Wells and go to Boston. But, I don’t think the Red Sox really need him now.
July 20th, 2008 at 8:58 am
If Moose does have another good year in him, we might be talking about 280 career wins instead of the mid 260s. For a borderline HOFer, those extra dozen+ Wins are big. So I think Moose wants to go another year.
My guess is the comfort of staying on the Yankees would outweigh a few million extra, and he would give the Yankees a very good deal for one more year (ala Bernie).
So really the questions are:
How do Phil and IPK perform the rest of this year?
Is Andy a good option for 2009?
Aside from Horne, what other Kids are SPs, and will they be viable fopr 2009?
It almost NEVER hurts to have a little extra pitching. Even a 4.75 ERA/160 IP pitcher may be valuable as insurance next year.
My bet is next year Moose is wearing Pinstripes.
July 23rd, 2008 at 4:59 pm
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