Here’s a math puzzle, of sorts, for those who enjoy this type of thing.
Don’t worry…this is not one of those “If two trains leave Chicago, one headed due east at 60 MPH and the other headed…” type of puzzles. At least, I hope it’s not.
I was just looking at the Yankees month-by-month record – in terms of wins, losses, runs scored per game (RS/G) and runs allowed per game (RA/G). The breakdown is as follows:
Month W L RS/G RA/G April 14 15 4.31 4.59 May 14 12 4.77 4.58 June 16 12 4.89 4.07 July 15 10 5.20 4.20
Clearly, the Yankees offense has improved, each month, little by little. And, the Yankees pitching, the last two months, has been better than it was during the first two months of the season.
But, drilling down, what’s been going on lately, in Yankeeland…say, over the last 13 games?
I’m picking the last 13 games since it’s been a “Jekyll & Hyde” time for the Yankees. New York has lost 4 of its last 5 games. But, in the 8 games before that, New York won all eight contests.
First, let us look at the Yankees bats in the last 5 games. Their BA/OBP/SLG line in these games is: .301/.366/.503 (in 202 PA). And, in the 8 games before these five their BA/OBP/SLG line was: .307/.397/.461 (326 PA).
O.K, so, the Yankees have been hitting in their last 13 games. How about their pitching?
In their last 5 games the Yankees pitchers have allowed the following BA/OBP/SLG line: .356/.397/.623 – along with an ERA of 8.80 (in 44 IP). And, in the 8 games before these five their BA/OBP/SLG allowed line was: .223/.278/.271 – along with an ERA of 1.56 (in 75 IP).
Hey, maybe this math problem isn’t so hard, after all?
After all, in New York’s last five games, Sidney Ponson, Mike Mussina, Darrell Rasner and Andy Pettitte have all been pounded. And, the only game the Yankees won here was the solid outing by Joba Chamberlain.
Maybe the bigger math question is: Will this bad-starter trend stop for the Yankees any time over the next three days? And, if not, will it stop at all?
3 Responses to “Fun (?) With Math”
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August 1st, 2008 at 4:05 pm
I’m picking the last 13 games since it’s been a “Jekyll & Hyde” time for the Yankees.
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Wouldn’t it be “Goofus & Gallant?”
August 1st, 2008 at 6:51 pm
If the starting pitching looks dicey now, what happens when Joba hits Tom Verducci’s “Rule of 30″ limit? The unofficial rule, followed by a lot of clubs, is that the risk of injury in the year after goes up dramatically when a developing pitcher is forced to pitch 30 more innings than they pitched the year before. I know that was a concern with moving Joba into the starting role on opening day.
Well he turns into a 30+ pumpkin in 62 innings – maybe 8 – 10 starts from now – which is sometime in the early, mid-September range. Do the Yanks sit him down in a division race? Do they pitch him as the #1 starter through the playoffs? I haven’t heard anyone talking about this as of yet. But if the surprising performance of Mussina turns out to be over and Pettitte’s 2nd half look more like yesterday and not his traditionally strong finish, the Yanks will be totally dependent on Joba. Hard to imagine them resting him.
Of course if Moose and Andy throw many more games like this week, everyone will be resting come September.
I for one would really hate to see that and not just because we’d miss the playoffs. I went into July hoping for either a 17-8 month or a 8 -17 month but not something in between. A 17-8 run puts us in the thick of the race and proves we can beat good teams. An 8 -17 colapse would have made us sellers at the deadline. As is, we were tracking towards the former, were buyers not sellers at the deadline and then nose dived. 15-10 is not bad and with Boston and Tampa pulling back, we are in the race . But when it was 14-6 last Saturday, finishing 15-10 doesn’t feel as good.
August 1st, 2008 at 11:41 pm
Great points John.