Forget 20-win seasons, no-hitters, and/or Cy Young Awards. Let’s just look at the numbers. What do they tell us? Is Mike Mussina a Hall-of-Famer…if his career ended today?
To that end, I called upon the Complete Baseball Encyclopedia. And, here’s what I did:
1. I looked at all pitchers with at least 300 GS between 1991 and 2008. This is the span of Mussina’s career. Since players should be measured against their contemporaries, when it comes to being worthy of Cooperstown, this made sense to me.
2. I decided to concentrate on RSAA and NW.
RSAA are “Runs Saved Against Average.” It’s the amount of runs that a pitcher saved versus what an average pitcher would have allowed. And, NW are “Neutral Wins.” It’s a projection for how many wins the pitcher would have if he was given average run support, considering his actual amount of decisions (W+L). Note: Both RSAA and NW are park-adjusted – and that’s good to level the playing field.
3. Next, I decided to play with the numbers a bit – to come up with a “score” to compare the starters. To this end, I took RSAA and IP to come up with a rate of RSAA/IP. Then, I took that ratio and multiplied by NW.
Now, I know that some may see this as Sabermetricasterbation. But, I thought it would be a fun way to reward a pitcher for being effective in terms of rate of saving runs (RSAA/IP) as well as his impact on the boiled down bottom-line (NW).
In any event, here are the “Top 30″ for what I’m calling “WasWatching Cooperstown Points” (WWCP) for all starting pitchers with at least 300 GS from 1991 through last night:
RANK PITCHER RSAA IP GS NW RSAA/IP WWCP 1 Pedro Martinez 500 2729.6 391 215 0.18 39.38 2 Randy Johnson 533 3574.3 512 262 0.15 39.07 3 Greg Maddux 527 4043.6 595 299 0.13 38.97 4 Roger Clemens 502 3403.6 502 242 0.15 35.69 5 Curt Schilling 352 3191.6 431 218 0.11 24.04 6 Tom Glavine 344 3763.3 576 261 0.09 23.86 7 Mike Mussina 322 3502.6 526 247 0.09 22.71 8 John Smoltz 324 2891.6 391 186 0.11 20.84 9 Kevin Brown 283 2857.0 417 192 0.10 19.02 10 Tim Hudson 221 2017.3 303 137 0.11 15.01 11 Andy Pettitte 204 2677.0 417 194 0.08 14.78 12 Kevin Appier 214 2388.0 373 162 0.09 14.52 13 David Cone 201 2114.0 315 145 0.10 13.79 14 Brad Radke 152 2451.0 377 159 0.06 9.86 15 Chuck Finley 143 2430.3 372 160 0.06 9.41 16 Al Leiter 122 2271.3 359 158 0.05 8.49 17 Jamie Moyer 131 3019.6 470 186 0.04 8.07 18 Tim Wakefield 116 2768.0 393 177 0.04 7.42 19 Bartolo Colon 103 2008.3 312 136 0.05 6.98 20 Kenny Rogers 111 3093.3 464 184 0.04 6.60 21 Mike Hampton 82 2090.0 324 131 0.04 5.14 22 David Wells 83 3070.0 462 185 0.03 5.00 23 Jason Schmidt 79 1978.6 310 121 0.04 4.83 24 Pat Hentgen 73 2075.3 306 130 0.04 4.57 25 Kevin Millwood 67 2055.3 335 132 0.03 4.30 26 Javier Vazquez 56 2210.3 343 128 0.03 3.24 27 Darryl Kile 47 2165.3 331 136 0.02 2.95 28 Jon Lieber 33 2196.0 327 131 0.02 1.97 29 Andy Benes 26 2246.3 346 138 0.01 1.60 30 Woody Williams 19 2216.3 330 126 0.01 1.08
This is an interesting list. It’s pretty clear that a “WWCP” of 35 or better means you’re a no-brainer for Cooperstown. And, if your “WWCP” is under 20, you’re not a Hall-of-Famer.
And, it seems that the pitchers who have a “WWCP” in the 20’s is where the great debates reside – with guys like Schilling, Glavine, Mussina and Smoltz.
Now, you know that Glavine is getting into Cooperstown because he has 300 wins. And, Schilling and Smoltz will probably get in because of their post-season heroics that sit on top of their career numbers.
However, Mussina does not have the post-season resume of Smoltz or Schilling. And, he does not have 300 wins like Glavine. And, that will probably work against him – when it comes to the Cooperstown vote. And, that’s a shame – because, based on the relative regular season pitching numbers, Mussina – to date – has been right there with Schilling, Glavine, and Smoltz.
If those three get into Cooperstown…Moose should be there with them…if there’s any justice in the selection process. However, we know that’s not always the case, is it?
So, maybe, when it comes to Mike Mussina, the question should be “Will He Be A Hall-of-Famer?” as opposed to “Is He A Hall-of-Famer?” There’s a pretty good case in favor of the latter – but the former is anyone’s guess.
12 Responses to “Is Mike Mussina A Hall-Of-Famer?”
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August 8th, 2008 at 10:48 am
Good work, Steve!
2001, 2003 & 2004 work against Moose.
But 2001 is a perfect example of his career. He had an all around better season than Clemens, but Clemens was the one who got the Cy that year.
August 8th, 2008 at 10:56 am
Great analysis Steve. It is posts like this that make this the best Yankees blog to me.
It will be interesting to see what happens when Moose goes up for election, especially on the internet and with all the sabermetrics fans, etc. to see if he falls into the Jim Rice backlash category or the Tim Raines, Bert Blyleven should be a hall of famer category.
This year has definitely helped his case but next year will probably determine for sure. If he wins another 15 games next season, then he would have 280 plus wins.
If Mussina wins 20 this year and K-Rod doesnt break the save record, then he might have a good shot at the Cy Young. Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay might have something to say about that though.
August 8th, 2008 at 11:17 am
Great study Steve.
I was wondering if you could look at this from a more historical perspective. For example, out of the previous 20 year span, how accurate of a predictor was WWCP? How many pitchers from that era made it into the HOF? Also who were the leaders and how did they compare to the modern day leaders in WWCP?
Thanks!
August 8th, 2008 at 11:39 am
I looked at all SP with 300+ GS from 1969 through 1990, and here’s the top 30 in WWCP:
Tom Seaver 23.51
Bert Blyleven 22.19
Jim Palmer 20.46
Steve Carlton 17.43
Phil Niekro 17.43
Gaylord Perry 17.19
Dave Stieb 15.99
Ferguson Jenkins 13.67
Rick Reuschel 13.14
Nolan Ryan 12.11
Dennis Eckersley 11.38
Ron Guidry 10.62
Steve Rogers 9.74
John Candelaria 9.57
Don Sutton 9.08
Frank Viola 7.94
Tommy John 7.77
Jerry Koosman 7.61
Charlie Hough 7.28
Bob Welch 7.07
Frank Tanana 6.21
Luis Tiant 6.21
Jon Matlack 6.21
Jack Morris 6.18
Vida Blue 5.35
Burt Hooton 5.12
Catfish Hunter 4.90
Mickey Lolich 4.33
Dennis Leonard 3.47
Ken Holtzman 2.98
But, you have to keep in mind that some of these guys also had stats before 1969 and after 1990 that would not be reflected in their WWCP shown here.
August 8th, 2008 at 11:51 am
For example, Seaver’s WWCP above is 23.51
But, when you look at his whole career, it’s 26.36
August 8th, 2008 at 11:57 am
FWIW, here’s the top 100 in WWCP for all pitchers with 300+ GS. These are the career totals:
Roger Clemens 52.86
Walter Johnson 51.10
Lefty Grove 50.52
Greg Maddux 40.33
Pedro Martinez 39.39
Pete Alexander 37.77
Randy Johnson 37.66
C. Mathewson 30.59
Tom Seaver 26.36
Carl Hubbell 25.01
Bob Gibson 23.78
Curt Schilling 23.34
Hal Newhouser 23.23
Mike Mussina 22.71
T. F. Brown 22.69
Bert Blyleven 21.66
Whitey Ford 21.66
Cy Young 21.53
Tommy Bridges 21.51
Warren Spahn 21.47
John Smoltz 20.93
Tom Glavine 20.74
Kevin Brown 20.35
Stan Coveleski 20.24
Phil Niekro 20.08
Jim Palmer 19.96
Gaylord Perry 19.91
Ted Lyons 19.52
Eddie Plank 19.23
Ed Walsh 18.48
Bob Feller 18.37
Steve Carlton 17.68
Dizzy Trout 17.59
Ferg. Jenkins 17.52
Rube Waddell 17.44
Dazzy Vance 17.01
Lefty Gomez 16.85
Red Faber 16.45
Juan Marichal 16.39
Urban Shocker 16.31
Bret Saberhagen 16.27
Jack Quinn 15.35
Kevin Appier 15.26
Sandy Koufax 15.23
Dave Stieb 15.08
Tim Hudson 15.01
Billy Pierce 14.98
David Cone 14.87
Andy Pettitte 14.78
Don Drysdale 14.61
Jimmy Key 14.34
Wes Ferrell 14.18
Eppa Rixey 14.05
Dutch Leonard 14.02
Robin Roberts 13.89
Chuck Finley 13.52
Lon Warneke 13.50
D. Eckersley 13.36
Rick Reuschel 13.09
Nolan Ryan 12.79
Dolf Luque 12.44
Jim Bunning 12.43
Eddie Cicotte 12.32
Virgil Trucks 12.21
Bob Lemon 12.19
Carl Mays 11.82
Joe McGinnity 11.71
Waite Hoyt 11.68
Mel Harder 11.61
Larry French 11.60
Luis Tiant 11.25
Wilbur Cooper 10.74
Red Ruffing 10.69
Larry Jackson 10.66
Ron Guidry 10.62
Bucky Walters 10.58
Hippo Vaughn 10.52
Tommy John 10.43
Frank Viola 10.22
Bob Shawkey 9.94
Babe Adams 9.91
Brad Radke 9.86
Ed Reulbach 9.79
Steve Rogers 9.74
John Candelaria 9.07
Jerry Koosman 9.06
F. Fitzsimmons 9.04
Jim Kaat 8.96
Ed Lopat 8.88
Claude Passeau 8.82
Milt Pappas 8.41
Charlie Root 8.26
Murry Dickson 8.18
Curt Simmons 8.16
Ned Garver 8.11
Don Sutton 8.04
Burleigh Grimes 7.99
Kenny Rogers 7.82
Orel Hershiser 7.80
Al Leiter 7.75
Still makes a nice case for Mussina.
August 8th, 2008 at 11:59 am
Another factor in Moose’s favor, I think, is that he spent his ENTIRE CAREER in the AL East, annually one of the toughest divisions in baseball. Of course, he had the benefit of being on the Yankees from 2001-on, but the Red Sox have always been a formidable offensive opponent.
Having a career ERA of 3.69 and WHIP of 1.19, while pitching your entire career in the AL, not to mention the AL East…that’s pretty darn good.
August 8th, 2008 at 12:00 pm
Baseball-Reference tracks a few of Bill James’ HOF predictors. One is the Hall of Fame monitor, which looks at career stats:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/hof_monitor.shtml
In that, a likely hall of famer has 100 points, a sure-fire one has 130 points. Mussina is at 117, and trails Glavine, Smoltz, Schilling, and even John Franco. Another is the Hall of Fame Career Standards, based on scoring the statistics a bit differently:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/hof_standard.shtml
Here an average hall of famer has a score of 50, and Mussina is a 52, this time ahead of Glavine, Smoltz, and Schilling.
So it appears that at present, Mike Mussina is a borderline hall of famer, based on comparisons to men already in the Hall. But I agree that if Glavine, Smoltz, and Schilling get in, you have to get Mussina in as well. Perhaps he won’t be in on the first few ballots, but I can see his candidacy picking up steam, a la Bruce Sutter.
It is stupid to judge a pitcher on wins, but twenty wins this season will probably help a lot.
August 8th, 2008 at 1:09 pm
~~Another factor in Moose’s favor, I think, is that he spent his ENTIRE CAREER in the AL East, annually one of the toughest divisions in baseball.~~
But, RSAA and NW take that factor out of it – and makes it all relative…
..and, still, the numbers are in Moose’s favor.
August 8th, 2008 at 1:26 pm
Moose still has a realistic shot at 300 wins. He’s 39 and currently has 265 wins. If he could have another season like this year, or stretch his career out like Glavine and Maddux, he could get there.
August 8th, 2008 at 2:57 pm
>> But 2001 is a perfect example of his career. He had an all around better season than Clemens, but Clemens was the one who got the Cy that year. >>
I think age might have had something to do with the award that year — I suppose it’s more impressive when a guy in his upper 30’s does well as opposed to someone in his lower 30’s.
Which, ironically, is exactly why Moose could be in the running for the Cy *this* year if he continues to do well through to the end of the season.
August 8th, 2008 at 3:57 pm
To me, Smoltz isn’t even borderline. The combination of wins and saves plus 3000 K’s makes him a no-brainer.
Count me as shocked at Moose’s success this year but as it continues on, I can no longer think in terms of being a fluke, and while I hate stat-padding, especially on a questionable measure like ‘wins’, it gets harder and harder for me to argue against Mussina’s candidacy if he keeps this up another year.
And you can only imagine how hard it is for me to say that.