To me, Smoltz isn’t even borderline. The combination of wins and saves plus 3000 K’s makes him a no-brainer.

Count me as shocked at Moose’s success this year but as it continues on, I can no longer think in terms of being a fluke, and while I hate stat-padding, especially on a questionable measure like ‘wins’, it gets harder and harder for me to argue against Mussina’s candidacy if he keeps this up another year.

And you can only imagine how hard it is for me to say that.

>> But 2001 is a perfect example of his career. He had an all around better season than Clemens, but Clemens was the one who got the Cy that year. >>

I think age might have had something to do with the award that year — I suppose it’s more impressive when a guy in his upper 30’s does well as opposed to someone in his lower 30’s.

Which, ironically, is exactly why Moose could be in the running for the Cy *this* year if he continues to do well through to the end of the season.

Moose still has a realistic shot at 300 wins. He’s 39 and currently has 265 wins. If he could have another season like this year, or stretch his career out like Glavine and Maddux, he could get there.

~~Another factor in Moose’s favor, I think, is that he spent his ENTIRE CAREER in the AL East, annually one of the toughest divisions in baseball.~~

But, RSAA and NW take that factor out of it – and makes it all relative…

..and, still, the numbers are in Moose’s favor.

Baseball-Reference tracks a few of Bill James’ HOF predictors. One is the Hall of Fame monitor, which looks at career stats:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/hof_monitor.shtml

In that, a likely hall of famer has 100 points, a sure-fire one has 130 points. Mussina is at 117, and trails Glavine, Smoltz, Schilling, and even John Franco. Another is the Hall of Fame Career Standards, based on scoring the statistics a bit differently:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/hof_standard.shtml

Here an average hall of famer has a score of 50, and Mussina is a 52, this time ahead of Glavine, Smoltz, and Schilling.

So it appears that at present, Mike Mussina is a borderline hall of famer, based on comparisons to men already in the Hall. But I agree that if Glavine, Smoltz, and Schilling get in, you have to get Mussina in as well. Perhaps he won’t be in on the first few ballots, but I can see his candidacy picking up steam, a la Bruce Sutter.

It is stupid to judge a pitcher on wins, but twenty wins this season will probably help a lot.

Another factor in Moose’s favor, I think, is that he spent his ENTIRE CAREER in the AL East, annually one of the toughest divisions in baseball. Of course, he had the benefit of being on the Yankees from 2001-on, but the Red Sox have always been a formidable offensive opponent.

Having a career ERA of 3.69 and WHIP of 1.19, while pitching your entire career in the AL, not to mention the AL East…that’s pretty darn good.

FWIW, here’s the top 100 in WWCP for all pitchers with 300+ GS. These are the career totals:

Roger Clemens 52.86
Walter Johnson 51.10
Lefty Grove 50.52
Greg Maddux 40.33
Pedro Martinez 39.39
Pete Alexander 37.77
Randy Johnson 37.66
C. Mathewson 30.59
Tom Seaver 26.36
Carl Hubbell 25.01
Bob Gibson 23.78
Curt Schilling 23.34
Hal Newhouser 23.23
Mike Mussina 22.71
T. F. Brown 22.69
Bert Blyleven 21.66
Whitey Ford 21.66
Cy Young 21.53
Tommy Bridges 21.51
Warren Spahn 21.47
John Smoltz 20.93
Tom Glavine 20.74
Kevin Brown 20.35
Stan Coveleski 20.24
Phil Niekro 20.08
Jim Palmer 19.96
Gaylord Perry 19.91
Ted Lyons 19.52
Eddie Plank 19.23
Ed Walsh 18.48
Bob Feller 18.37
Steve Carlton 17.68
Dizzy Trout 17.59
Ferg. Jenkins 17.52
Rube Waddell 17.44
Dazzy Vance 17.01
Lefty Gomez 16.85
Red Faber 16.45
Juan Marichal 16.39
Urban Shocker 16.31
Bret Saberhagen 16.27
Jack Quinn 15.35
Kevin Appier 15.26
Sandy Koufax 15.23
Dave Stieb 15.08
Tim Hudson 15.01
Billy Pierce 14.98
David Cone 14.87
Andy Pettitte 14.78
Don Drysdale 14.61
Jimmy Key 14.34
Wes Ferrell 14.18
Eppa Rixey 14.05
Dutch Leonard 14.02
Robin Roberts 13.89
Chuck Finley 13.52
Lon Warneke 13.50
D. Eckersley 13.36
Rick Reuschel 13.09
Nolan Ryan 12.79
Dolf Luque 12.44
Jim Bunning 12.43
Eddie Cicotte 12.32
Virgil Trucks 12.21
Bob Lemon 12.19
Carl Mays 11.82
Joe McGinnity 11.71
Waite Hoyt 11.68
Mel Harder 11.61
Larry French 11.60
Luis Tiant 11.25
Wilbur Cooper 10.74
Red Ruffing 10.69
Larry Jackson 10.66
Ron Guidry 10.62
Bucky Walters 10.58
Hippo Vaughn 10.52
Tommy John 10.43
Frank Viola 10.22
Bob Shawkey 9.94
Babe Adams 9.91
Brad Radke 9.86
Ed Reulbach 9.79
Steve Rogers 9.74
John Candelaria 9.07
Jerry Koosman 9.06
F. Fitzsimmons 9.04
Jim Kaat 8.96
Ed Lopat 8.88
Claude Passeau 8.82
Milt Pappas 8.41
Charlie Root 8.26
Murry Dickson 8.18
Curt Simmons 8.16
Ned Garver 8.11
Don Sutton 8.04
Burleigh Grimes 7.99
Kenny Rogers 7.82
Orel Hershiser 7.80
Al Leiter 7.75

Still makes a nice case for Mussina.

For example, Seaver’s WWCP above is 23.51

But, when you look at his whole career, it’s 26.36

I looked at all SP with 300+ GS from 1969 through 1990, and here’s the top 30 in WWCP:

Tom Seaver 23.51
Bert Blyleven 22.19
Jim Palmer 20.46
Steve Carlton 17.43
Phil Niekro 17.43
Gaylord Perry 17.19
Dave Stieb 15.99
Ferguson Jenkins 13.67
Rick Reuschel 13.14
Nolan Ryan 12.11
Dennis Eckersley 11.38
Ron Guidry 10.62
Steve Rogers 9.74
John Candelaria 9.57
Don Sutton 9.08
Frank Viola 7.94
Tommy John 7.77
Jerry Koosman 7.61
Charlie Hough 7.28
Bob Welch 7.07
Frank Tanana 6.21
Luis Tiant 6.21
Jon Matlack 6.21
Jack Morris 6.18
Vida Blue 5.35
Burt Hooton 5.12
Catfish Hunter 4.90
Mickey Lolich 4.33
Dennis Leonard 3.47
Ken Holtzman 2.98

But, you have to keep in mind that some of these guys also had stats before 1969 and after 1990 that would not be reflected in their WWCP shown here.

Great study Steve.

I was wondering if you could look at this from a more historical perspective. For example, out of the previous 20 year span, how accurate of a predictor was WWCP? How many pitchers from that era made it into the HOF? Also who were the leaders and how did they compare to the modern day leaders in WWCP?

Thanks!