88 Wins For Yanks In 2008?
I was just looking at the Yankees remaining schedule this year. Applying reasonable logic to the schedule – in terms of who they play and where the games are played (in addition to factoring in the level of play New York has shown this season) – I could see the Yankees going 25-19 in their remaining 44 games this season.
This would give the Yankees an overall record of 88-74 on the season…
…which is just about what I predicted back on March 27, 2008 when I wrote:
I’m predicting that the Yankees will win 92 games this season.
Of course, they could win a few more than that – if some things break their way. But, even if things are just close to “normal” for them, in terms of reasonable expectations, they should win at least 92 games (in 2008).
Now, I expect 37% of those wins to be credited to the pitching records of Andy Pettitte and Worm Killer Wang. So, if something should happen to one or both of them, well, then all bets are off.
If one of the two goes down for half the season, then the Yankees only win about 87 games this season.
And, as we know, Wang went down after 15 starts this season – meaning that he’s going to end up missing half the season.
87 wins… 88 wins… That’s close enough for me.
Now, back in June, according to this survey, most Yankees fans said that they would not consider a season of 87 wins to be a failure for the team. It will be interesting to see if they feel the same way about this on October 1st. (Don’t worry, we’ll do a poll on this at that time too!)
87 wins sounds just about right. Good call. With the questionable field play( yesterday’s Cano/Betemit lax play in the 9th that lead to the win), so-so RISP hitting and lack of a youth movement that actually produces it’s a miracle that they’ve won as much as they have. 87 wins is not a failure to these fans? Wait until the Yanks don’t make it to October. I can see a pre pro-rated payroll of 400 mill next year as a reaction to 87 wins and no playoff berth!
Steve…don’t you think the Yanks would win more than 87 games if Wang was healthy and everyone else healthy as well? Did you factor in injuries in your prediction?
If you didn’t then I still think 87 wins is too low because they are on pace for that many wins even with all these injuries. This is a 92-94 win team with Wang and everyone else healthy. I think the fact that they will win 87-88 with injuries proves that somewhat because we cant’t know FOR SURE.
I would not consider this a failure because to be honest when Wang went down I thought they were toast then, so I’m happy to see them have at least somewhat of a chance. I see it more as a disappointment then a failure.
~~Steve…don’t you think the Yanks would win more than 87 games if Wang was healthy and everyone else healthy as well?~~
Sure. That’s why I predicted 92 wins at the start of the season…and said it would be less if Wang and/or Pettitte got hurt.
Man, I need to stop reading your posts at work with internet explorer really small because then I miss things!
I predicted here, and at RLYW, 88 wins – prior to the start of the season.