It’s Not Just About A Lack Of Clutch Hitting
Did you know that…in nine of their last sixteen games the Yankees pitchers have allowed 7+ runs to score in a game?
What’s the Yankees record, this season, when they allow 7+ runs in a game? It’s 6-24.
Yeah, six and twenty-four. It’s really hard to win a game when you allow 7+ runs in the contest. Even the good teams cannot overcome such a hurdle.
The Red Sox, this season, are 2-21 when they allow 7+ runs in a game. The Angels, this season, are 3-18 when they allow 7+ runs in a game. The White Sox, this season, are 7-19 when they allow 7+ runs in a game. The Twins, this season, are 2-22 when they allow 7+ runs in a game.
When you look at this, it’s almost amazing that the Yankees have won 6 games where they’ve allowed 7+ runs.
Yes, the Yankees are losing, lately, because of a lack of clutch hitting – but that’s not the only reason. Their pitching has let them down too. In fact, in their last 16 games, the Yankees team ERA is 6.65 and they’ve allowed batters to post this BA/OBA/SLG line against them: .305/.368/.500 (in 627 PA).
In some ways, this Yankees team is the perfect storm of ineptitude. Their architect must be very proud.
Yankees are losing because lack of hitting. A team that was supposed to slug their way to a division title or the wild card cannot afford to have lousy production from 3 spots. Last year, they averaged 5.98 R/G, this year it’s 4.78. Pitching wise, they averaged 4.8 R/G, this year it’s 4.47
The pitching’s going to have its ups and downs, but the offense is the culprit behind this disappointing season.
IIRC, before last night, the Yankees scored 19 runs more than an average team would have scored, this season. And, last year, they scored 172 more runs than an average team. So, yes, without question, the Yankees offense is not the same.
But, wasn’t the Yankees pitching supposed to be better this season with Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain and Ian Kennedy being here for the full season? Clearly, that plan failed. And, the only reason why the Yankees R/G allowed numbers are the same this year is because guys like Mike Mussina, Edwar Ramirez, Jose Veras, Dan Giese and Sidney Ponson have pitched way better than anyone could have expected. Without that “gift” from thin-air, the Yankees R/G number would not be that pretty.
When you look at it on a game by game basis, and not on the average, the Yankees probably have 6 or 7 more games where they’ve allowed 7+ runs than what you would expect from a good team. And, that’s why they’re ten games out of first…along with the lack of hitting.
It’s not just about the hitting, IMHO.
Um, Wang had a completely flukey injury that no one could have expected. And no, you can’t just say “oh, every team loses their number 1 starter”, because they don’t.
Look at it this way. The 2008 Yankees are a great example of a WORST CASE SCENARIO TEAM. Besides Mussina, and some bullpen-mates, what Yankee has escaped injury or surpassed reasonable expectations? And yet they are still, albeit barely, in contention for the playoffs. You say the Yankees are sooo lucky that Mussina and some of the bullpen has done so well. But you completely and utterly ignore every other single thing that has gone wrong and all the same time.
The architect you love to hate should be relieved that the team he built was strong enough to withstand pretty much everything that could go wrong. I can’t think of any other team in the major leagues that has had to deal with the issues the Yankees have had this season. Although I guess that’s really the benefit of having a $200 million payroll, it’s a little bit of insurance for every single thing going wrong.
*It’s not just about the hitting, IMHO.*
Of course it is. That’s the way the team has been built since 2004. There’s no denying that.
*Without that “gift” from thin-air, the Yankees R/G number would not be that pretty.*
And without Jeter, Cano, & Melky, among others, doing as poorly as they have, the R/G number would be prettier…
Regardless, the numbers are what they are. The pitching has improved from last year, however incrementally. Whether it’s a (dis)credit to Cashman is another matter entirely. Having said that, I’d rather wait until after the season, to make that claim (that the pitching has improved), as the wheels can fall off the staff from August through Sept.
Guess Cashman is pretty lucky finding Small, Chacon, Ponson, Edwar, Veras, Geise, etc, etc, etc over the past few years…
Anyway, the nature of the game is that you’re going to win/lose close ones, you’re going to win/lose blowouts, you’re going to win/lose slugfests.
If you want to look at it from a game by game basis, you have to look at them within the context of the standings and what other teams have done. In those games where they’ve allowed 7+, did they lose, gain, or maintain ground?
Although I guess that’s really the benefit of having a $200 million payroll, it’s a little bit of insurance for every single thing going wrong.
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I don’t know about that. A lot of that $200M has more to do with the starting lineup, than the depth; take a look at the 2007 team
Salaries
Jason Giambi $ 23,428,571
Alex Rodriguez $ 22,708,525
Derek Jeter $ 21,600,000
Andy Pettitte $ 16,000,000
Bobby Abreu $ 15,000,000
Johnny Damon $ 13,000,000
Hideki Matsui $ 13,000,000
Jorge Posada $ 12,000,000
Mike Mussina $ 11,070,423
Mariano Rivera $ 10,500,000
~~The architect you love to hate should be relieved that the team he built was strong enough to withstand pretty much everything that could go wrong. I can’t think of any other team in the major leagues that has had to deal with the issues the Yankees have had this season. ~~
Do you call going one game over .500 in 113 games against teams not called the Seattle Mariners “withstanding”? That’s some job of withstanding, eh?
~~If you want to look at it from a game by game basis, you have to look at them within the context of the standings and what other teams have done. In those games where they’ve allowed 7+, did they lose, gain, or maintain ground?~~
Raf – look at it this way:
The Yankees have played about 7 more games this season than the Red Sox, Twins, Angels and White Sox have – where their pitching has allowed 7+ runs in the game.
Even if they Yankees had the great offense of last year that you cite: 5.98 R/G…
they’re going to lose those 7 games. Seven > 5.98
Make those seven games into wins instead of losses – and the Yankees position this season would be a lot better now, no?
Ooh, so we can now remove teams the Yankees have had success against? Lesse what happens when you do that to the Red Sox…oh look, they went 6-1 against KC and 2-0 against Cleveland, and 6-3 against Seattle, and 5-2 against Detroit, I think we can all agree are four pretty awful teams. So when you take that away, The Great Red Sox Run By The Genius Theo Epstein are merely four games over .500. And that team is just off a WS berth, the only really bad thing happen to it is Ortiz’s year (not to mention every single other thing that has gone MORE THAN RIGHT for them: Drew, Pedroia, Youkilis, Lester, Wakefield, Dice-K, Casey), and heck, most of the team is in its prime!
This is a fun game, isn’t it?
Steve- Would it be possible to get the breakout of those same stats for the last 16 games between the starters and the relievers?
Also, how many times this season have the Yankees scored 3 runs or less? My guess is it is more than the 30 times they have given up 7 or more.
Even if they Yankees had the great offense of last year that you cite: 5.98 R/G…
they’re going to lose those 7 games. Seven > 5.98
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Maybe I didn’t make myself clear, but that 5.98 was an average. Some games they’re going to score more/less runs than 5.98.
One of those games where the pitching allowed 7+, maybe the hitting scores 7+ and wins/loses.
Maybe I’m not reading it correctly?
Steve- Would it be possible to get the breakout of those same stats for the last 16 games between the starters and the relievers?
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It’s a start;
http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/tgl.cgi?share=1&team=NYY&year=2008&t=p#104:119:sum
AndrewYF – I’m focusing on the Yankees. I could care less if the Red Sox are a good team or not.
Let’s get back to the Yankees. You say they lost their ace and that’s why they stink this year.
But, are the Yankees really without an ace? Isn’t Mussina pitching like an ace?
Or, did you expect BOTH Wang and Mussina to pitch like aces this season – and that was the key to the Yankees winning?
Stats aside, Ponson and Giese have not been that bad. Yes, the relievers are coming back to earth. Unsabremetrically speaking, a lot of these superstars are entering the twilight of their careers. Giambi, Jeter and Cano(even thugh he’s a newbie,he’s acting like he’s a veteran on the downhill) are not having the best time of their lives hittingwise. In essence, it is a perfect storm of sometimes better than OK starting pitching and bad RISP hitting.
It gets even worse. I had heard a radio luminary talk about how the Yankees will soon have a week off facing the Os and Toronto. This dimwit should realize that the Os own the Yankees this year. Toronto? They are almost even in the season series AND Cito Gaston will make sure that AJ Burnett and Doc Halladay face the Bombers. A week off? Sounds like having a vacation in Beirut, only during the Lebanese Civil War!
~~~Steve- Would it be possible to get the breakout of those same stats for the last 16 games between the starters and the relievers?~~~
If I’m going my math right…
since 7/27, the Yankees pen has thrown 47.3 IP and allowed 43 earned runs. And, since 7/27, Yankees starters have thrown 90 IP and allowed 59 earned runs.
So, in the last 16 games:
Yankees SP ERA: 5.90
Yankees RP ERA: 8.18
So, in the last 16 games:
Yankees SP ERA: 5.90
Yankees RP ERA: 8.18
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I have one comment for that ugly mess: GO RAYS! j/k
Courtesy of B-R;
Bullpen
April/Mar, 3.70
May, 3.55
June, 3.95
July, 3.19
August, 8.01 (!)
Starters
April/Mar, 5.17
May, 4.50
June, 3.82
July, 4.41
August, 4.52
I guess Torre’s overuse/abuse of the bullpen has caught up to them in August.
Couldn’t resist.
Steve,
Over the course of a season, you can find a 15 or 20 game sample size to prove almost any point. Unfortunately the 16 game stretch you selected happens to be the last 16 games and comes at a time when we cannot really afford to break down. I also agree with Raf – our pitching performance to date can head south from here and wipe out the success so far.
Having said that, you are smoking something to suggest that it is not hitting that is hurting this team. Look at the numbers – runs per game down 20%. Runs allowed dropped 7%.
If you were told in the beginning of the year that Wang would miss more than half the season and Hughes and Kennedy would make maybe 20 starts (if that)and win less than 5 (5 less at this point), but the Yanks would allow less runs, you’d laugh out loud.
If you were told that we’d lose Posada and Matsui for most of the season, and were asked to estimated the impact in lost runs, I doubt you’d say 20%. 20% is a huge difference.
The source of our offensive woes is more due to major drops from key performers. Jeter’s career runs created/game is 6.7. This year, its 4.5. Cano last year 5.8. This year 3.7. Melky 4.3 now 3.3. Better than expected years from Damon and Giambi can’t make up for those numbers. And A-Rod’s numbers look like his career averages, but we all can see from observation that they are not coming when they are needed, like they were last year.
Almost any prediction that the 2008 Yankees would win more than 90 games was based on the assumption that a team scoring 900+ runs will win 90 games even with a less than stellar staff.
900 runs?? They won’t touch 800. Last time a Yankee team didn’t score 800 runs. 1992 – the glory days of Hall, Tartabull and Stankiewicz.
So even after blowing another game tonight, the Yanks unbelievable drop in runs scored will be remembered as the reason why we fell short this year.