The Batting With RISP Excuse

[Regarding the Yankees poor record this season, to date] When it is suggested that no one could have foreseen all the injuries and no victories from touted rookie pitchers Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy, [Yankees G.M. Brian] Cashman said, “That has nothing to do with it. It’s our … offense. We can’t hit with runners in scoring position.” [source]

We can’t hit with runners in scoring position.

I am sooooo tired of hearing this excuse from the Yankees and some of their fans.

Yes, statistically speaking, the Yankees, as a team, have done a poor job with respect to batting with runners in scoring position (RISP). To date their BA/OBA/SLG line with RISP is .259/.347/.381 (in 1,309 PA). That OPS mark of .729 for New York, with RISP, is 11th worst in the league.

But, there’s a problem with the batting with RISP stat…as it does not tell you anything about the score of the game during those Plate Appearances when the runners were in scoring position.

It treats the PA with RISP when the score is 16-0 (either way) the same as the PA with RISP when it’s the bottom of the 9th, no outs, with a runner on third, and when you’re down by a run. And, that’s stupid.

For me, I’d rather look at how a team is batting, period, when it’s a close game - say when the score is within 2 runs (either way). And, in this “Within 2 Runs” situation snapshot, this season, to date, the Yankees BA/OBA/SLG line is .270/.343/.419 (in 3,142 PA).

Now, some may see that “Within 2 Runs” OPS for New York of .761 and offer that it’s very close to the OPS mark of .729 for New York with RISP. However, there is a difference here.

That OPS mark of .761 for New York when the score is “Within 2 Runs” is 5th best mark in the league. So, when it comes to batting when the game is close, the Yankees are one of the better teams in the league, to date, this season.

Perhaps a better reason why the Yankees have done so poorly this season is their pitching.

During the first half of the season, the Yankees starting pitchers had an ERA of 4.51 (in 525.3 IP). This mark was 9th worst in the league during the first half - and just a few points from being 11th worst.

And, during the second half of this season, to date, the Yankees bullpen has an ERA of 5.83 (in 78.6 IP). That ERA is the worst mark - out of all 14 teams - in the league during the second half of the season.

If the Yankees, or their fans, what a reason/excuse for the team’s poor record this season, to date, it was the terrible pitching of Phil Hughes, Ian Kennedy, and Darrell Rasner during the first three months of the season; and, it’s been the terrible pitching of Edwar Ramirez and Damaso Marte this month.

Maybe that’s not 100% of it - in terms of where to lay the blame. But, it’s a huge part of it - and more important than how the Yankees have been batting with runners in scoring position.

Maybe Brian Cashman doesn’t want to ‘fess up to that? After all, Hughes, Kennedy, Rasner, Ramirez and Marte are all part of his pitching plan for this season. So, it’s much easier to point to a stat like batting with RISP - which looks bad…but, which tells you nothing, in reality, because it’s not reflecting when those Plate Appearances occurred.

But, to me, when it comes to the Yankees “story” this season, it’s the same as it’s been for the last four years before this one - it’s all about the pitching…and Cashman’s bad plan in terms on who to count on…for the Yankees staff.

August 14, 2008 | Filed Under The Airing of Grievances

Comments

13 Responses to “The Batting With RISP Excuse”

Raf on August 15th, 2008 12:06 am

RSAA TEAM TOTALS
1 Red Sox 70
2 Angels 63
3 White Sox 49
4 Blue Jays 44
5 A’s 39
6 Yankees 30
7 Rays 29
8 Tigers -9
9 Indians -30
10 Mariners -32
11 Orioles -35
12 Twins -41
13 Royals -47
14 Rangers -85

RCAA TEAM TOTALS
1 Rangers 64
2 Red Sox 61
3 Rays 34
4 Tigers 25
5 Twins 24
6 Orioles 16
7 White Sox 11
8 Yankees 7
9 Indians -2
10 Blue Jays -32
11 Angels -53
12 Mariners -58
13 Royals -69
14 A’s -79

It’s the offense.
Don on August 15th, 2008 2:37 am

Heck, just watching the games tells us it’s the offense.
frankinsense on August 15th, 2008 7:17 am

Yup, it’s the offense Steve. On pace to score over 200 runs less than last season. Some of that is the injuries, esp. Jorge, but also Cano, Jeter, and Melky. Couldn’t do much about the first two, but Melky should have been sent to The Office two months ago.
frankinsense on August 15th, 2008 7:24 am

Jeter has gotten old - fast. I’m not so sure he’s a lock for 3000 hits any more. 2010 is looking more and more like his last season for, gulp, $21 million. His defense has been worse too.
OnceIWasAYankeeFan on August 15th, 2008 8:06 am

Jeter has gotten old - fast. I’m not so sure he’s a lock for 3000 hits any more. 2010 is looking more and more like his last season for, gulp, $21 million.
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Does anyone seriously believe that Derek Jeter, the captain, the modern-day Mr. Yankee, on his way toward 3000 hits, will be shown the door after two more seasons??

Like Posada and Mariano and A-Rod, Derek will extort as much money as he desires and the Steinbrenners will never think twice about paying it.

Be prepared to enjoy Jeter’s decline phase - all of it, from start to finish. He will never play in another uniform.
MJ on August 15th, 2008 8:47 am

Does anyone seriously believe that Derek Jeter, the captain, the modern-day Mr. Yankee, on his way toward 3000 hits, will be shown the door after two more seasons??
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I certainly hope so. Frankly, I’d pay someone to take him.
Steve Lombardi on August 15th, 2008 9:02 am

Sorry, team totals in offense, albeit RCAA or Runs Scored, mean nothing to me. It’s all about run differential - if you pitched better, you don’t need a ton of runs to overpower your opponent and offset your weak pitching.

Take a lot at the Angels offense. Pretty bad, huh? But, don’t they have the best record in the league?

Pitching, pitching, and more pitching…that’s what it’s all about. And, as always, Cashman cannot build a pitching staff.
Steve Lombardi on August 15th, 2008 9:11 am

Sorry to get off topic, but, I felt I should mention this somewhere…where at least some could see it…without having to make a “grand announcement.”

As some of you may know, my job was eliminated 16 weeks ago. I’ve been home during this time, looking for a new job. And, it’s been a slow process - to say the least - hence the passing of 16 weeks.

It’s now reached the point where I need to consider some additional options. To that end, I’m looking into some new career training…to run with that while I also look for a job that was in line with what I did before…

But, that’s going to mean I need additional time to work on that training, etc.

I do not expect this need to eat into my time spent writing this blog. But, it will eat into my time spent answering comments, etc. So, I will not be posting comments as often as I do now…starting today.

Note, I stress AS OFTEN. It’s not like I will never address comments - it’s just that I cannot answer as many as I do now.

Sorry, I only have so much time in the day and this other stuff means being able to feed my family and keep a roof over our heads.

Feel free to dicuss, agree, or disagree with the things that I post here…that’s great. But, just don’t take in personal if I ignore your challenge for debate, etc.

I’m not ignoring you for the sake of ignoring you, I’m ignoring you because I have serious things to attend to now.

Of course, if I manage to find a job soon, this all will likely change. But, I cannot count on that…if the last 16 weeks have shown me anything.
dgreen323 on August 15th, 2008 10:05 am

I don’t understand this argument. If the time at which you hit is so important, then why should we value pitching statistics that don’t tell us the time at which those innings were pitched. By your logic, the only ERA’s that would be pertinent are the ERA’s of our pitchers in innings that started with us within 2 runs of our opponent. That’s kind of ridiculous.

It’s been both pitching and hitting. But we came into this season relying more on our hitting because we knew we didn’t have an all-star staff mostly hitting. They’re on pace to score the fewest runs they’ve scored since 1992. Say what you like about the general stat lines or the stat lines w/ RISP, but runs are the most fundamental measure of offense. You try to maximize the number of runs you score. It’s been a strength for a very long time and this year the Yanks are merely average at scoring runs.

And you can say Cash can’t build a pitching staff, but what decisions would you have made differently? Our most reliable pitcher missing more than half the season isn’t his fault. Nor is one of the top pitching prospects in baseball unknowingly pitching much of his first month with a broken rib. Pettitte is also having one his worst seasons of his career, but it was more reasonable to bring him back for one year than go sign some overpriced mediocre start from the free agents.

The Johann deal is just about all that could’ve been differently. And if we do that, we have a pitcher who we’re locked into insane amounts of money for for 7 years, a pitcher who was already showing decline last year and who has shown to be very good, but not spectacular, in the inferior national league this year.

Instead we have Hughes, who’s back to hitting mid-90’s on his fastball, is still only 22, and looks like he will be a very good pitcher for a long time and at a much more reasonable salary than Johann.

And you can write off Ian Kennedy too, but the guy is 23 and still has the potential to be a solid, long-term back of the rotation guy at a reasonable price, which is extremely valuable in a time when a guy like Carlos Silva can get a 4 year, $48 million contract.
Raf on August 15th, 2008 10:19 am

Take a lot at the Angels offense. Pretty bad, huh? But, don’t they have the best record in the league?

Pitching, pitching, and more pitching…that’s what it’s all about. And, as always, Cashman cannot build a pitching staff.
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How ’bout them Jays & A’s? They have better pitching than the Angels, but don’t seem to be doing as well. Why is that?
Raf on August 15th, 2008 10:22 am

Good luck, Steve! Hope everything works out.
butchie22 on August 15th, 2008 10:31 am

Raf, point well taken about the Jays and As. The Jays have a similar RISP problem as the Yankees, where in quite a few of these 1 run games they do lose, they leave a small army on base. Up in Toronto, it is a big deal about the Angels not being a better team in all around hitting AND pitching. One major difference, the Angels get the hits when they count(great situational hitting). The As have lost a lot of their pitchers so they are currently in a rebuilding/AAAA mode right now. The As were contenders but are now in the back of the pack. Please no smart remarks about the Yanks being in the back of the pack either!
John ONeil on August 15th, 2008 5:07 pm

Steve,
best of luck on the job front. and thank you for this blog. I don’t always agree with you but love the exchange ideas.

and this one of those cases where I can’t agree. I can understand the desire to make sure that the pitching failures this year don’t get ignored in the resounding condemnation of the offense. but your consistent rant on how its really the pitching that deserves the principle blame this year is hard to fathom. when you then use this as a platform for criticizing cashman it rings even more hollow. You support this case with increasingly selective subsets of stats.

One of Winston Churchill’s greatest quotes: “he uses statistics like a drunk uses a lampost - for support rather than illumination.” Anyone can find a slice of stats to “support” almost any position. I find many of the stats that appear on these pages illuminating. Less actually lend genuine support to an argument.

If the question is “pitching vs. hitting, which is more responsible for the drop in yankee wins this year” this is the least productive Yankee offense in 16 years. It is not the worst pitching staff we have had in 1 year. Let’s put this to bed.

As for whether the GM could have done a better job assembling a pitching staff for this season, that is a wide open question. bring on the illuminating stats.

But when your run total drops 20 percent in a year, its hard to imagine any off season pitching moves overcoming that.