What’s The Problem With Derek Jeter’s Bat?
On December 3, 2007, I brought Derek Jeter’s batting decline, with respect to his power at the plate, to attention via an examination of the number of “lucky” homeruns that he hit in 2007 and then looking at his legit homers compared to his Plate Appearances.
At that time, some commented that this was a “…a useless stat. Utterly 100 percent useless.”
Later, on June 10, 2008, I once again looked at Jeter’s declining power numbers – this time looking at his production from 2008 (at that point in time).
Now, thanks to the new website StatCorner.com [HT: BBTF], we can look at even more stats with respect to what’s going on with Derek Jeter and his bat this season. Here’s the first data set for discussion:
Year wOBA P/PA GB% FB% LD% 2002 .319 3.68 50.5% 20.8% 22.7% 2003 .333 3.66 50.1% 19.5% 21.9% 2004 .334 3.50 44.6% 29.6% 18.3% 2005 .355 3.81 57.5% 19.2% 18.5% 2006 .369 3.58 60.7% 17.1% 21.1% 2007 .391 3.72 55.7% 20.1% 21.6% 2008 .345 3.75 57.1% 22.1% 17.1%
As per the guys at StatCorner.com:
wOBA or weighted on base average is a statistic developed by and used with the permission of Tom Tango. He gives a detailed rundown of it here. In a nutshell, wOBA uses linear weights on certain batting events to come up with a metric that is more statistically sound than OPS and is scaled onto an OBP scale. According to Tango “An average hitter is around 0.340 or so, a great hitter is 0.400 or higher, and a poor hitter would be under 0.300.”
And, P/PA is pitches per Plate Appearance, GB% is a the percentage of batted balls that are grounders, FB% is fly balls and LD% is line-drives.
As you can see, this season Jeter is pretty consistent in terms of his P/PA as compared to recent seasons. And, his wOBA, while just average is not out of line with what we’ve seen from Jeter from 2002 through 2005. If anything, 2006 and 2007 are the odd seasons for Derek here – not 2008.
Further, Jeter’s GB%/FB%/LD% spread over the last four seasons – including this one – seems to be, on the whole, somewhat consistent.
Here’s our next data set for Jeter:
Year Sw% Mis% Ct% 2002 48.2% 19.8% 80.2% 2003 48.0% 17.8% 82.2% 2004 50.4% 17.5% 82.5% 2005 45.5% 17.3% 82.7% 2006 47.0% 16.7% 83.3% 2007 47.0% 13.3% 86.7% 2008 47.9% 14.4% 85.6%
Sw% is how often Jeter swings at pitches – and Mis% is how often he misses when swinging and Ct% is how often he makes contact.
Here, once again, we see a consistent spread. In the last four season, Jeter’s not swinging more often – nor is he missing or making contact more or less than usual.
Strange, huh? Jeter’s seeing the same number of pitches, dealing with them the same way, producing the same types of batted balls, etc. – yet, clearly, his power numers are down.
Actually, when you look at Derek Jeter’s “power” in terms of HR% and SLG% minus Batting Average, there’s an interesting curve in his career. His numbers over the last three or four years, now, are closer to what his numbers where during his first two seasons in the big leagues.
It’s like 1996-1997 and 2006-2008 are here and 1998-2005 are there.
This could just be the natural growth and decline phases of a major league hitter. But, then, why are Jeter’s wOBA numbers somewhat consistent over the last seven years?
So, maybe it’s something else? After all, Jeter’s “power” has seemed to go away around the same time as when MLB came up with a PED policy that included suspensions.
Yeah, I know, that’s outrageous, factually deprived, baseless, etc. – all those things that people like to say when you suggest that PEDs could be at play and you really don’t have a smoking gun.
Forget that I even mentioned it…
Let’s just say that Derek Jeter is doing what he always does, at least recently, while in the batter’s box, but the percentage of balls that Jeter has hit in the air (meaning line drives, flyballs, etc.) that go for a homerun has now gone down for the last three years in a row – because that’s fact.
To me, this comes down to a lack strength – albeit due to age or something else. And, that’s the problem with Derek Jeter’s bat these days…he’s just not as physically strong as he used to be and therefore cannot get the ball over the wall.
Sure, you could say that it’s an injury situation this year. Jeter did have that hand problem back during the end of May – and perhaps it’s nagging? But, then again, that doesn’t explain the lack of power in 2006 and 2007.
In any event, bottom-line, unless Jeter gets that muscle (which he’s been missing for three years now) back, somehow, what you see now is what you should expect going forward: a .290+ batting average, some walks, and no pop.
Steve, considering that you have shown all these stats for Jeter are in line with previous seasons, other than HR%, would you say that Jeter has been some what unlucky this season since his BABIP is much lower than it has been in the past 4 years:
Year BABIP
2002 0.305
2003 0.333
2004 0.285
2005 0.328
2006 0.376
2007 0.356
2008 0.305
I think this means that only his power is in decline and he is not in decline overall. Would you agree with that?
Also, I noticed some stats on that site are not legit, unless you think A-Rod hit .269 in 2004 or that it’s possible to have a higher overall BA than a BABIP. For example, it says A-Rod hit .310 last season(it was actually .314) but that he hit only .274 on BABIP, which is impossible.
http://www.statcorner.com/batterAJAX.php?id=121347
http://www.baseball-reference.com/r/rodrial01.shtml
Interesting, THT has A-Rod’s BABIP for last year at .309
I’ll e-mail the guys at StatCorner to see if they can explain this.
Oops, I guess it is possible. I didn’t realize that HR’s didn’t count as in play. Which is kind of dumb if you think about it. I would rather know what a guy is hitting when he hits the ball period, so just all of his hits and then his at bats minus K’s.
~~~would you say that Jeter has been some what unlucky this season since his BABIP is much lower than it has been in the past 4 years~~~
According to this study,
http://tinyurl.com/ez5az
expected BABIP should equal LD% plus .120.
So, I would say that Jeter was not “unlucky” this season with BABIP. More so, I would say that he was lucky the last four years in BABIP.
Here’s the delta between BABIP, that you stated, and his expected BABIP:
2002 -.042
2003 -.006
2004 -.018
2005 .023
2006 .045
2007 .020
2008 .014
Here, his BABIP this season is 14 points higher than what should be expected.
~~I’ll e-mail the guys at StatCorner to see if they can explain this.~~
FYI, here’s their answer…which was sent very quickly:
“As mentioned at the top of our stats glossary page, everything’s compiled from play-by-play files and so at this point (this is the main we call it a beta), there’s some tiny wonkiness on the counting stats overall, usually a very small amount and almost universally just on AB/PA/IP totals. It is something we hope to have fully corrected within the week.”
— so, if the number are off, it’s not by much…
Eh, I dunno .269 AVG vs .286 AVG for ARod in 2004 is pretty far off in my eyes. They might want to fix that ASAP.
After looking it over, Jeter’s LD% has dropped 4.5% this season, so that is probably the reason for the drop in BABIP. That might be something to look at for next season to see if goes back up into the 20% range or stays down in the 17-18% range.
interesting that he sees the same number of pitches/pa, it feels like he swings at a lot more first pitches this year…guess its just me
~~I dunno .269 AVG vs .286 AVG for ARod in 2004 is pretty far off in my eyes~~
17 points. But, it could all be relative – if everything is off by 17 points…
I’ll have to relook at this study, another day, when I have some more time…using the stats from THT…
Could be relative but would be better if we knew for sure.
You probably can just wait until the end of the season and revisit it, since it’s less than 2 months away.
Funny how everyone disappears around here after the Yankees don’t play well.
~~Funny how everyone disappears around here after the Yankees don’t play well.~~
Think about that. When the Yankees aren’t losing 12 or 18, many come by here to tell me how negative I am, and that I’m an idiot, and not a true fan, etc.
But, now that many of things I said are coming true – like about Hughes, Kennedy, etc. – it’s pretty hard to play that game of calling Steve names, etc.
Basically, by playing so poorly, the Yankees have taken the sport out of it for the Steve-bashers.
But, now that many of things I said are coming true – like about Hughes, Kennedy, etc. – it’s pretty hard to play that game of calling Steve names, etc.
—————————
Bullshit. What did you say that is coming true? That Hughes stinks? That Cashman’s a bad GM? Don’t be so quick to pat yourself on the back.
You revel in being “right” (loosely defined) and it’s quite unbecoming.
Further, in keeping to the point of this thread, why would you even hint at PED use with Jeter? Even if done in jest, it’s just not necessary. Everyone is under suspicion, sure, but it doesn’t help to do the wink-wink routine because you only add fuel to that unfortunate fire.
Why does Jeter stink this year? Because he’s 34 years old and that’s about the time that everyday shortstops start to stink. Despite being a die-hard Yankee fan, I’m not a very big fan of Derek Jeter’s. If the Yanks wanted to move him out to pasture, you won’t hear objections from me. The only problem is that the team has no suitable replacement on the horizon and good shortstops that can hit don’t exactly grow on trees.
Despite being a die-hard Yankee fan, I’m not a very big fan of Derek Jeter’s.
_____________________________________________
Is this even possible? haha
If you don’t like Jeter who DO you like? Seriously.
~~why would you even hint at PED use with Jeter?~~
Well, there’s this little voice that I have inside my head that keeps saying “Jeter? He’s got an Edge!”
O.K., seriously, anyone who’s power numbers dropped, that much, after MLB but in the PED policy, has to be at least wondered about, no?
Even someone of the “star” status of Jeter.
~~Bullshit. What did you say that is coming true? ~~
Here’s one, to start..
http://tinyurl.com/62mbgt
Do you really want me to dig up all the URLs? Will that make you feel better?
Is this even possible? haha
If you don’t like Jeter who DO you like? Seriously.
—————————————–
It’s quite possible. It’s real, in fact. Jeter’s “my shit don’t stink” attitude turns me off. I don’t buy into the Captain Intangibles nonsense, either.
Who do I like? I like A-Rod, Rivera, Pettitte, Damon, Posada, and even Moose grew on me the past two seasons as he embraced a leadership role among the young pitchers.
Jeter may be the first guy in the dugout to give you a high five but then he shuns you in the clubhouse. That’s bullshit in my book. Don’t get me wrong, I respect certain parts of Jeter’s game and I’m glad he’s been a Yankee. But his personality rubs me the wrong way. I wasn’t alive to see DiMaggio but I hear they’re very similar. And Joe D. didn’t exactly give everyone the warm-and-fuzzies.
Here’s another for MJ:
http://tinyurl.com/6fs9ee
http://tinyurl.com/62mbgt
———————————–
You were proven correct how?
http://tinyurl.com/6fs9ee
———————————-
Yep, Toronto and the Mariners. Great picks, Steve. Keep ‘em coming with those URL’s. I’m loving it.
My comment is awaiting moderation? Is this for real? I’ve been a regular commenter on this site since October 2005 and I’ve never once, NEVER ONCE, gotten personal with you.
You want to start treating me like the guys who make a daily point to insult you? Gotta say, that’s weak.
No offense but don’t you think it’s a little irrational to try to judge someone you don’t even know by their attitude on the field? I mean we rag on Schilling and Papelbon but that’s because they are D-Bags off the field and Jeter is nothing but classy off the field.
His shit dont stink attitude..yeah like ARod doesnt have one of those too but you like him.
Sit down and enjoy watching Jeter play, don’t worry about his so called attitude, let his teammates worry about that. It didn’t seem to be an issue when they were winning all those World Series now did it?
MJ do you realize that you have a shit dont stink attitude yourself? Maybe you hate Jeter because you see a little bit of yourself in him that you dont like…haha
1) No offense but don’t you think it’s a little irrational to try to judge someone you don’t even know by their attitude on the field?
2) MJ do you realize that you have a shit dont stink attitude yourself? Maybe you hate Jeter because you see a little bit of yourself in him that you dont like…haha
————————————
Two comments by the same person. You’re telling me I’m wrong to have an opinion or an impression of someone that I don’t know and yet you’re doing the same with me. Unless we know eachother, which I don’t think is the case, how would you figure that I have a “my shit don’t stink” attitude?
I’m terribly sorry if I insulted you Antone. I didn’t realize that you and Jeter were that close.
MJ…sorry to tell you but watching someone on TV is not even close to the same form of communication as commenting with people on a blog…you come across that way through your own words…you don’t have any words to judge Jeter by..you are just judging by actions that you see and you take them your on way….your right I don’t know you but I have more communication with you than you do with Jeter….
And no you didn’t hurt my feelings..sorry..that’s why I was laughing at the end of my last comment…it was clearly said jokingly…because I don’t know you like that.
My comment is awaiting moderation? Is this for real?
———–
Sometimes it happens, it has happened to me too. It’s nothing.
To add to that, chances are it happened when you submitted several comments within a certain time frame; do it frequently, it may get caught in the spam filter.
~~~My comment is awaiting moderation? ~~~
Raf nailed it. It’s the Akismet SPAM filter thing. Not me. FWIW, I just approved the comment. I bet it got nailed because you were posting a lot of comments in a short period of time and the one grabbed also had two URLs in it.
MJ, now, to the point you had in that comment…
~~~Toronto and the Mariners~~~
Hey, obviously, I don’t know other teams as well as I know the Yankees…
But, I was right about the Yankees!
~~~You were proven correct how?~~~
That the Yankees were stupid to have that plan of an Old Guy with Two Really Young Guys in the Rotation with Really Young Guy in the Pen As Well.
That the Yankees were stupid to have that plan of an Old Guy with Two Really Young Guys in the Rotation with Really Young Guy in the Pen As Well.
———————————-
Don’t see how you were proven correct. Your statement is too general. It’s like saying the sun rises every Friday morning in August.
Furthermore, you don’t account for the fact that the “Really Young Guy in the Pen As Well” was not only dominant in that role but in his next role as well. You made a statement, you didn’t present an argument.
But if you think you “won” then that’s great for you. From now on, every August 14th will be “Steve’s Right Day.”