5 Responses to “The Last 40 Games”

1. John ONeil Says:
   August 16th, 2008 at 5:46 pm

   Ugly baseball.

   While we’re discussing math, here are some numbers comparing ‘07 to ‘08 through 122 games. The ‘07 Yanks were 68-54; this year’s crew 64-58. Why are we 4 games behind last year?

   We have talked about total runs scored, runs allowed, RISP, ERA, batting when within 2 runs, etc. Many of these stats are either sums or averages. They can be distorted by big numbers (i.e. 18 runs vs TEX). Wins are binary – you either get one or you don’t.

   What if we look at games where the Yanks score 5 or more runs as a measure of meaningful offense and games where they allow 4 or less runs as meaningful pitching? There is a high correlation to winning using these benchmarks. Comparing the last two season for the first 122 games, the Yanks won between 78% and 82% of games they score 5 or more runs. They won 80% of games they allow 4 runs or less.

   Through 122 games last year, how do the ‘07 Yanks compare to the ‘08 Yanks:
   2007 2008 Diff
   Games with 5+ RS 76 57 -19
   Games with 4- RA 67 69 + 2

   Pitching is a little better but that should account for 2 wins at most. The big change is the 19 less games that the Yanks scored 5 runs. When the yanks score 5 runs, they win approximately 8 of 10. When they score 4 or less this year, they win 3 of 10.

   So using these numbers, if they had scored 5 or more in these 20 games (like last year), they’d have won 16 of 20. Scoring 4 or less, they won 6. That is a big swing – 10 games. At 74 wins instead of 64, the Yanks are tied with the Rays.

   In fact, given the enormous drop in run production, it is amazing that the ‘08 Yanks are only 4 runs behind last years team.

2. Steve Lombardi Says:
   August 16th, 2008 at 10:02 pm

   Good stuff. Thanks for sharing!

3. John ONeil Says:
   August 17th, 2008 at 1:09 am

   thanks. in that last line I meant “4 wins” behind last year’s team – not 4 runs.

4. John ONeil Says:
   August 17th, 2008 at 1:10 am

   thanks. in that last line I meant “4 wins” behind last year’s team – not 4 runs.

   I can confirm they booed A-rod for wiffing late in the game. Waiting for the boos for Derek “DP” Jeter – he hit into yet another with the base loaded in the bottom of the ninth.

5. MJ Says:
   August 17th, 2008 at 9:41 am

   I can confirm they booed A-rod for wiffing late in the game. Waiting for the boos for Derek “DP” Jeter – he hit into yet another with the base loaded in the bottom of the ninth.
   —————————————
   Sad to hear that fans are back to booing A-Rod.

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