The Yankees and Red Sox each have 38 games left to this season. The Tampa Bay Rays have 39 games left to play.
If the Rays go 20-19 in their remaining games, playing just one game over .500 for the rest of the season, then the Yankees would have to go 30-8 in their remaining games to pass Tampa in the standings.
So, basically, once the Yankees lose 8 more games this season, barring a collapse by the Rays, New York will have ensured themselves of not finishing in first place this season.
What about the Wildcard? Can the Yankees catch the Red Sox?
If Boston goes 19-19 in their remaining games, playing just .500 for the rest of the season, then the Yankees would have to go 25-13 in their remaining games to pass the Sox in the Wildcard standings.
So, if Boston plays .500 from here out, New York would need to play .658 to pass them in the standings. (That’s just about needing to win every 2 out of the 3, for the Yanks.)
I do not believe there’s a chance for the Yankees to catch the Rays now – all things considered. And, based on the numbers, it’s going to be extremely hard to catch the Red Sox. Maybe Hank was right to waive the white flag?
10 Responses to “Stating The Obvious?”
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August 18th, 2008 at 1:05 pm
Both are still on but we would have to show consistency that has never been sown. And would probably have to sweep both teams in a series.
August 18th, 2008 at 1:59 pm
If the Yankees win the season series with Boston, they would have to go just 24-14 to beat out the Red Sox for the playoffs under your scenerio Steve. Just thought I would throw that out there considering it is a possibility. I would be more surprised if the Red Sox went only 19-19, then if the Yankees went 24-14 the rest of the season.
Boston does have 10 more games with Toronto though and they always seem to have problems with the Blue Jays. They also have 6 more games with the Yanks and 6 with TB. It’s possible they could go only 11-11 in those 22 games.
The rest of their schedule is 6 with BAL, 3 with CHI, 4 with CLE, 3 with TEX. I would be surprised if they split with these teams but it’s not impossible.
The Yanks have 9 with TOR, 6 with BOS, 6 with BAL, 6 with TB, 4 with CHI, 3 with LAA, 3 with SEA, 1 with DET. Would be tough for them to go 24-14 against that group.
Looks like Toronto is going to be a key player down the stretch.
Tampa’s schedule down the stretch is pretty tough:
LAA(3), NYY(6), BOS(6), TOR(6), CHI(3), MIN(4), BAL(7), DET(4)
They are definitely going to have to earn their division title, no doubt about that.
August 18th, 2008 at 2:02 pm
We are leaving one team out of the mix: the Jays. At the end of this series with Toronto, I believe that the Yanks will be tied with Toronto. Remember the Yanks are facing Doc Halladay and AJ Burnett who are Yankee killers par excellence, then Purcey pitches the middle game who has been doing well. The Jays also crushed Beckett yesterday and Wells and Rios are back so things are a little different from the last series. If anything, Toronto will determine whether the Yanks are the wild card team and possibly the Jays might have a run with their great pitching ( and Yankee fans remember that run back in 89 that Cito Gaston and Co went on to win the division). The Os own the Yanks this year make no bones about it. They match up well against the Yankees BUT are not as good as Toronto is. They have to be on all cylinders playing the Os, because they can hit. Also Millah(sic) can’t stop killin’ the Yanks.
Look, the Sox and Rays are great teams and in some sense are better than this year’s Yanks BUT they match up decently with them. In some weird way, they match up better with Tampa and Boston than Toronto and Baltimore. They should not take anything for granted and actually play all these games like playoff games, because their season depends on it.
Hank was right to waive the flag internally, but externally it sends a bad message to the fans. Some fans still think they have a chance so they shouldn’t be buried yet but the writing is on the wall.
As for the Rays, I mean barring some miracle the Yanks, the Red Sox or even for the Jays for that matter are not dethroning Tampa at this point. The Red Sox have the best chance, BUT even with Longoria, Crawford and Percival out these young kids are still going strong. Right now, the defacto playoff rep for the AL east are the Rays and they have been in first for a while.It’s almost September and I bet that Big Papi is having some regrets about what he said right now…….
August 18th, 2008 at 2:32 pm
It’s always possible, but I don’t see the Yankees pulling off their end in either scenario without a significant change to the team. Barring dramatic changes, I think Boston has to take an Olympic-quality dive (<.500 ball) for the Yankees to have a shot. Of course, a dive like that is not unprecedented.
August 18th, 2008 at 3:49 pm
I’m just searching for anything positive here but I noticed the Red Sox are only 30-37 against teams with winning records. 25 of their final 38 games are against teams with winning records and Texas has been hovering around .500 all season so it could be 28 out of 38.
August 18th, 2008 at 6:47 pm
A lot of negativity here. 29-9 in their final 38?
Why not?
August 18th, 2008 at 10:43 pm
A lot of negativity here. 29-9 in their final 38?
Why not?
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Uh, because they haven’t shown the slightest hint of the talent and luck necessary to play .763 ball over nearly a quarter of a season?
August 19th, 2008 at 9:01 am
Unfortunately I agree with the Sox fan….
August 19th, 2008 at 10:40 am
The talent is certainly there. The luck hasn’t been.
This is not a 774-run team. The Yanks have some runs coming to them. And the lineup gets longer tonight with Matsui’s return. He’s also the team’s best situational hitter.
One would think a long-time Red Sox fan would be especially careful about dismissing the Yankees.
August 19th, 2008 at 1:27 pm
A team that hits like this over 3/4 of the season most definitely does not have the talent necessary to go on that kind of run. Whatever chance they had petered out after their little burst at the ASB.
And what exactly are the odds that Matsui remains healthy long enough to make a significant difference? Every other time he has ramped up his activity, his knee has swelled up. He’s not using a brace because its uncomfortable. The doctor recommended surgery. Let’s just say I am extremely doubtful that his knee, which still needs surgery as the Post blog writer keeps mentioning, will last very long, playing regularly.
And finally, as a long-time Red Sox fan, I am dismissing the Yankees chances of winning the division. I didn’t say they are out of the wild card hunt.