Via Murray Chass today -
Hank Steinbrenner can blame the injuries. Others can blame the hitting. To see where the Yankees went wrong, however, I believe you have to look at the pitching and the decisions the team’s brain trust made about its pitching last winter.
Injuries are something every contender has to deal with. How it deals with and overcomes its injuries can determine how far a team goes.
But let’s look at two other contenders and their injuries.
The Mets have played most of the season without two-thirds of their outfield. Moises Alou won’t be back; Ryan Church may be but only after missing more than 10 weeks. Second baseman Luis Castillo has been on the disabled list for more than six weeks. Orlando Hernandez has not pitched an inning all season, and Pedro Martinez has pitched far fewer innings than the Mets had expected. Closer Billy Wagner is on the disabled list.
In Boston, Curt Schilling has been out all season; Daisuke Matsuzaka missed some time and Tim Wakefield and Bartolo Colon are on the disabled list, Colon for the past two months; Julio Lugo has missed more than a month and David Ortiz couldn’t play for nearly two months, matching the time Matsui was out of the Yankees lineup.
Injuries have not knocked the Mets and the Red Sox out of their respective division races.
But if the Yankees can’t legitimately cite injuries for their division-race deficiencies, how about their deficient hitting? The Yankees won’t get any sympathy from other contenders there either.
The Yankees have a higher team batting average than the White Sox, the Angels and the Rays and have scored more runs than the Angels and the Rays, who have dominated their divisions. The Yankees have scored nearly as many runs as the Red Sox and White Sox, averaging 4.85 runs a game to Boston’s 5.14 and Chicago’s 5.11.
…a glance at current pitching statistics tells a tale about the Yankees. In short, they are short on pitching, and that shortage stems from their off-season strategy.
In a stark departure from practices the Yankees had followed during their championship seasons, they decided they were going to win with young stallions – Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy in the starting rotation and Joba Chamberlain in the bullpen.
In championing those plans, the lead strategist, general manager Brian Cashman, eschewed the opportunity to add a superstar to the staff, a two-time Cy Young award winner, fellow named Johan Santana.
While the Yankees, despite appearances, have a better hitting team than most of the other contenders, they lag behind the others in pitching.
The Yankees are seventh in earned run average at 4.24. The Rays, the White Sox, the Angels and the Red Sox all have lower e.r.a.s, all under 4.00. In fact, the 32-point difference between sixth-place Boston’s 3.92 and the Yankees’ 4.24 is the greatest between two teams except for the teams with the two highest e.r.a.s, Baltimore and Texas.
A similar situation exists with the Yankees’ starting pitchers. They rank eighth while the Rays’ starters have the lowest e.r.a followed by the Angels fourth, the Red Sox fifth and the White Sox seventh. And the .40 difference between the White Sox and the Yankees is the greatest except for that Orioles to Rangers combination at the bottom of the rankings.
As much as the Yankees miss Wang, they would have missed him a lot less if they had Santana. Mike Mussina’s surprising performance would have been more of a luxury than a necessity. The injuries to Hughes and Kennedy and their inability to win even one game between them would not have been so devastating.
Nor would the Yankees have needed to make the bizarre mid-season move of converting young, hard-throwing Chamberlain from the bullpen to the starting rotation. There’s another area in which the brain trust messed up.
Tell you what…I’m going to go grab some lunch. You guys can discuss this while I’m out.
41 Responses to “Chass: Poor Planning Produces Poor Results For Yanks”
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August 20th, 2008 at 12:05 pm
*sigh*
RCAA TEAM TOTALS (offense)
1 Rangers 94
2 Red Sox 60
3 Orioles 34
4 Rays 33
5 Tigers 30
6 Twins 22
7 White Sox 14
8 Indians 1
9 Yankees -7
RSAA TEAM TOTALS (pitching)
1 Red Sox 85
2 Angels 71
3 White Sox 57
4 Blue Jays 54
5 Rays 46
6 A’s 40
7 Yankees 29
For the hundredth time, it’s NOT THE PITCHING
August 20th, 2008 at 12:07 pm
Nor would the Yankees have needed to make the bizarre mid-season move of converting young, hard-throwing Chamberlain from the bullpen to the starting rotation. There’s another area in which the brain trust messed up.
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That little nugget by itself invalidates the rest of the column. We’re still debating the merits of an ace-caliber SP vs. an eighth-inning setup guy?
August 20th, 2008 at 12:38 pm
For the hundredth time, it’s NOT THE PITCHING
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Chass is dumb, but the team would have been better off this season with Santana instead of Hughes.
August 20th, 2008 at 12:47 pm
the team would have been better off this season with Santana instead of Hughes.
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Sure. But what about in 2011 or 2012 when Santana is being paid $22.M and $24M per year, respectively, in those seasons?
We have no way of knowing what the future holds for Hughes but teams should always try to operate with a longer view than just the season at hand. At least that’s what I think.
August 20th, 2008 at 1:08 pm
I don’t disagree with that, but it’s nowhere close to written in stone that Hughes will contribute anything in 2011 or 2012 himself.
Plus, it was imo silly to enter the season with two rookies in our rotation and Moose, whom we didn’t know would pan out, and NO BACKUP PLAN. We might have Victor Zambrano starting Saturday. Seems there was a gross overestimation of our system.
Beyond even that, the construction of this team, with many aging core players and soon to be departed FAs (I hope), maybe this was the season you take a final swing at before transitioning in 2009-2010?
August 20th, 2008 at 1:57 pm
You guys can discuss this while I’m out.
Murray Chass is an idiot? What more is there to discuss?
but it’s nowhere close to written in stone that Hughes will contribute anything in 2011 or 2012 himself.
Of course not, but it’s not going to cost the Yankees $100 million to let the Twins discover what Hughes (and Wang and Melky) can do for a few hundred thousand. And trading away good, although “unproven” minor league talent for expensive vets is a sure fire way to build a fragile, mediocre team. Lo and behold: Your 2008 Yankees.
The Yankees are scoring 200 runs less this year than they did last year with arguably the same team. Pitching ain’t their problem. A lineup that relies on 7 thirty-somethings to contribute offensively and defensively and not get hurt (because there’s no readily available back-up in the minors) is gonna disappoint nearly every season.
August 20th, 2008 at 2:17 pm
Murray Chass? Really?
Bologma!, you sound more and more like Lombardi every day.
August 20th, 2008 at 2:31 pm
Seems there was a gross overestimation of our system.
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No, the backup plans in the minors got hurt too.
Anyway, the pitching is heading along at the same clip as last year. While it’s fashionable to blame the pitching, the fact of the matter is that the team was constructed to hit its way to the postseason. The offense is the reason why the team isn’t doing as well as it should be doing.
These are the guys who’ve had a negative impact on the Yankees’ offense this year
Justin Christian -1
Jorge Posada -1
Chris Stewart -1
Chad Moeller -3
Ivan Rodriguez -3
Shelley Duncan -5
Brett Gardner -6
Derek Jeter -7
Alberto Gonzalez -7
Morgan Ensberg -8
Wilson Betemit -8
Jose Molina -18
Robinson Cano -19
Melky Cabrera -22
There’s your problem.
August 20th, 2008 at 2:41 pm
Steve,
You might want to use the Steve Phillips model here. Any time The Chassman says something you agree with, you might want to re-evaluate your position.
My suggestion: Print Raf’s first post and paste it above your monitor.
To put it another way, the only reason the Yanks made the post-season each of the last three years is because of the hitting. Cashman realized this. But he also realized that trading a huge chunk of the system, plus giving a huge extension, for a pitcher is how they got into this mess (see Jeff Weaver, Javy Vazquez, and Randy Johnson). The only way to build the organization for another dynasty, rather than another playoff appearance, is through developing your own. Santana wasn’t that. CC Sabathia is better these days any ways, and he will come at the cost of only cash.
August 20th, 2008 at 2:46 pm
Raf -
If anything, your posts prove to me how right Cashman was. He knew he could get at least what they gotten from the pitching. Sure, no one could have predicted Moose’s year, but the result is still the same. Yeah, they were planning on better years from Hughes and IPK, and that would have had them in the hunt right now, but the hitting fell off a cliff. Any one that knows the numbers, knows hitting is the most consistent from year to year. There was every reason to believe that the Yanks had plenty of offense.
August 20th, 2008 at 2:52 pm
In reading this nonsense from Chass, boy am I glad the Times got rid of him. Hopefully they go and hire someone like Marchman or Goldman.
August 20th, 2008 at 3:09 pm
agree with MJ:
“Nor would the Yankees have needed to make the bizarre mid-season move of converting young, hard-throwing Chamberlain from the bullpen to the starting rotation. There’s another area in which the brain trust messed up.”
the minute a reporter or columnist writes this, the minute his credibility, or whatever he had left of it, is thrown out the window.
next.
August 20th, 2008 at 3:35 pm
More specifically this is/was the major problem:
Wilson Betemit -8
Jose Molina -18
Robinson Cano -19
Melky Cabrera -22
If we even had league average players in place of Cano and Cabrera for the season I think we’d be on top of the Twins right now. Throw in some extra bad luck with pitching and some slumps for our stars and we’re 6.5 games back in the wild card.
Chass is a moron.
August 20th, 2008 at 4:15 pm
No, the backup plans in the minors got hurt too.
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Who specifically?
Yes, Chass is a moron. But our hitters failing has nothing to do with passing on Santana. Though you should consider that sending Melky along with Phil for Santana would have likely ended with a much, much better replacement (most likely Cameron).
And Hank made a point of mentioning that Cashman was worried about our hitting entering the season…
August 20th, 2008 at 4:26 pm
But he also realized that trading a huge chunk of the system, plus giving a huge extension, for a pitcher is how they got into this mess (see Jeff Weaver, Javy Vazquez, and Randy Johnson).
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Terrible examples.
August 20th, 2008 at 4:44 pm
Who specifically?
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Chase Wright, Alfredo Aceves, Alan Horne to name 3.
August 20th, 2008 at 4:52 pm
Murray Chass judges offense on team batting average. Enough said.
This team is the result of overpriced, long term contracts with aging, past their prime players. You don’t solve that problem by getting locked into additional long term contracts that will handcuff you on the backend.
That’s what the Santana deal would’ve done. It looks good this year, but as someone mentioned above, it won’t look good when you’re paying the guy $24 mil in 2012.
The problem with acquiring players like this is that you’re always paying above fair market value. They’re already on the decline. You never have them at their best, but you’re paying top dollar for them as if they’re still in the middle of or just approaching their prime.
You beat this problem by developing your own talent.
And Chass is an idiot. The Red Sox injuries: Schilling (that contract was a lifetime achievement award more than anything else, they weren’t relying on him), Dice-K (legitimate, though it was not serious, he was only gone for 15 days), Wakefield (not that huge a loss looking at his numbers), Colon (really, the Sox were depending on Colon?), Lugo (easily replaced by Jed Lowrie, a testament to the Sox farm system), and Ortiz (the lone serious injury that really has hurt them). Overall, nothing near the impact of all the Yanks’ injuries.
And as for the Mets, Alou (only played about 70 games last year), Church (was never supposed to be a vital part of the team to begin with), El Duque (he’s like 52, how could you rely on him?), Luis Castillo (unsurprisingly easily replaceable), Pedro (hasn’t pitched much at all the last 2 years, if they were relying on more than 100 innings from him then that’s just poor foresight). Additionally they’re in the weaker league, in a weak division. The Yanks would still be in that race if they were in the NL East too.
August 20th, 2008 at 4:58 pm
Horne wasn’t dependable to begin with.
Aceves was signed out of the Mexican League this year and started in single A.
Chase Wright? Really?
August 20th, 2008 at 5:07 pm
This team is the result of overpriced, long term contracts with aging, past their prime players. You don’t solve that problem by getting locked into additional long term contracts that will handcuff you on the backend.
That’s what the Santana deal would’ve done. It looks good this year, but as someone mentioned above, it won’t look good when you’re paying the guy $24 mil in 2012.
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Does Santana fit in the “aging, past their prime” category? If so, I’d imagine you’re against signing CC, who’ll only be a year younger. Did the Mets pay above fair market value for him?
August 20th, 2008 at 5:14 pm
Horne was the EL pitcher of the league in 2007, had he stayed healthy, there would’ve been a good chance you would’ve seen him this year, and probably would’ve challenged for a rotation spot next year.
Aceves blew through the system, and would’ve seen time in NY had he not tweaked his groin.
Have you seen the year Wright was having in the minors? He would’ve gotten the call too.
Dan Geise was starting and doing well, Jeffery Marquez, not so.
August 20th, 2008 at 5:23 pm
Horne was the EL pitcher of the league in 2007, had he stayed healthy, there would’ve been a good chance you would’ve seen him this year, and probably would’ve challenged for a rotation spot next year.
Aceves blew through the system, and would’ve seen time in NY had he not tweaked his groin.
Have you seen the year Wright was having in the minors? He would’ve gotten the call too.
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This is the backup plan?
25 year old, oft injured Alan Horne, who has serious command issues is probably the only one of these three who could have been considered before the start of the season as part of the backup plan.
Like I said, Aceves hadn’t thrown an inning for us before we elected to go into the season depending on two rookies. If he was part of the backup plan than that’s an indictment right there.
You mean the Chase Wright who was demoted to AA? I’d rather have Rasner.
August 20th, 2008 at 5:32 pm
I’d rather have Rasner.
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Who was also part of the backup plan, along with Kartsens
August 20th, 2008 at 5:35 pm
Like I said, Aceves hadn’t thrown an inning for us before we elected to go into the season depending on two rookies.
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Two rookies who also blew through the system last year, and appeared to be ready.
August 20th, 2008 at 5:37 pm
“Jeff Weaver, Javy Vazquez, and Randy Johnson”
Bologma – when you say that those are “terrible examples”, you show yourself to be pulling your arguments our of your ass. They’re not perfect, but they explain alot – what Cashman has learned and how we got into this mess.
Weaver – wasn’t in the same class, but folks at the time thought he was about to come into his own. But, fine, it’s a bad example. Still, the Yanks traded Lily for the privilege.
Vazquez – coming off a 139 ERA+ season at the age of 26 with 241 Ks in 237 innings. For the privilege, the Yanks gave up very serviceable prospects in Juan Rivera and Nick Johnson.
Unit – perhaps the best comparison in terms of expected results, big yearly contract extension, and the quality of prospects dealt. Unit had had a huge season the year before – 177 ERA+, 2nd in CY – and the Yanks paid dearly. Navarro would have been starting for the Yanks this season. And Vazquez has been league average every year since. Meanwhile Unit did what exactly?
Across those three trades, the Yanks lost three players (Lily, Rivera, and Navarro – four if you count the double whopper of Vazquez) who are playing important roles on playoff bound teams. More importantly, all of those players would have been huge improvement to what they trotted out there this year for significant periods.
Cashman has learned from his mistakes. God bless him. Looking forward to Sabathia AND the next five years from Hughes and IPK, and at least three more from Melky.
August 20th, 2008 at 7:23 pm
Santana showed that he was on the decline last season. His slider doesn’t have as much bite as it used to and his fastball lost velocity. Thus his numbers came back down to earth last season. Is there any question that he is on the downward side of his career arc right now?
Sabathia has only improved each of the last 3 years. Additionally it would only cost us money, not money + 4 prospects including one of the best in baseball. Knowing that we need help at the front end of the rotation, the smarter move is to wait for CC rather than pay the same money plus prospects for Johan.
August 20th, 2008 at 9:18 pm
But how do you *know* Sabathia is going to sign with us? At least with Santana, you knew that if the trade was completed, he was yours. That is worth something. And like I said, Sabathia’s deal is probably going to be much larger than Santana’s.
August 20th, 2008 at 9:20 pm
Rasner-Who was also part of the backup plan, along with Kartsens
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Not much of a plan.
August 20th, 2008 at 9:23 pm
“Like I said, Aceves hadn’t thrown an inning for us before we elected to go into the season depending on two rookies.”
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Two rookies who also blew through the system last year, and appeared to be ready.
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My point exactly; misjudgment on Cashman’s part. And an overestimation on his part regarding the backup plan.
August 20th, 2008 at 9:56 pm
Across those three trades, the Yanks lost three players (Lily, Rivera, and Navarro – four if you count the double whopper of Vazquez) who are playing important roles on playoff bound teams. More importantly, all of those players would have been huge improvement to what they trotted out there this year for significant periods.
Cashman has learned from his mistakes. God bless him. Looking forward to Sabathia AND the next five years from Hughes and IPK, and at least three more from Melky.
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Please, don’t tell me I’m pulling stuff out of my ass, especially when you follow it up by stretching the argument as far as you can to suit your need.
If anything, watching Vazquez and Weaver fail for the Yankees should make you understand the challenges that Hughes and Kennedy face, who haven’t proved much of anything at he major league level.
And the players we gave up? Hardly the “huge chunk of the farm system” you claim them to be. Are they a “huge improvement on what we trotted out there this year”? Juan Rivera who has never played a full season? Who’s been through two teams since? Navarro, who four years and two teams later is just now having a decent year with the bat? Who was blocked by Posada? If only Cashman knew then what he does now he could have saved them all for 2008!
August 20th, 2008 at 11:03 pm
My point exactly; misjudgment on Cashman’s part. And an overestimation on his part regarding the backup plan.
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Whatever the case, the pitching is at around the same clip as it was last year;
2008: 4.45 R/G, 100 ERA+
2007: 4.80 R/G, 99 ERA+
The offense, OTOH
2008: 4.82 R/G, 104 OPS+
2007: 5.98 R/G, 118 OPS+
Pitching hasn’t been the problem this year.
August 20th, 2008 at 11:07 pm
And the pitching wasn’t very good last year. Better pitching, better team.
August 20th, 2008 at 11:19 pm
And the pitching wasn’t very good last year. Better pitching, better team.
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As has been the case since 2004, the team is built around the offense.
Better offense, better team.
August 20th, 2008 at 11:34 pm
And what could we have done to improve the offense? Nothing remotely close to what Santana would have provided.
August 20th, 2008 at 11:53 pm
And what could we have done to improve the offense? Nothing remotely close to what Santana would have provided.
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If a team built around hitting isn’t hitting, why is the pitching being blamed?
Even if Santana were to be traded to the Yanks it doesn’t change the fact that the team that was supposed to hit its way to the postseason hasn’t hit.
The problem isn’t Santana, the problem is Jeter, Cano, Cabrera & Molina not hitting the way they should.
August 21st, 2008 at 12:02 am
The pitching isn’t being blamed, the person who could have improved it and chose not to is.
August 21st, 2008 at 12:32 am
The pitching isn’t being blamed, the person who could have improved it and chose not to is.
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“To see where the Yankees went wrong, however, I believe you have to look at the pitching and the decisions the team’s brain trust made about its pitching last winter.”
The pitching isn’t the problem.
August 21st, 2008 at 12:37 am
Even if the team hit like they were supposed to, the pitching should have improved been improved.
August 21st, 2008 at 10:15 am
Even if the team hit like they were supposed to, the pitching should have improved been improved.
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And it would’ve been in the context of Hughes & Kennedy. It was a gamble, just like trading for Santana was a gamble.
And what could we have done to improve the offense? Nothing remotely close to what Santana would have provided.
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Barry Bonds was and is looking for work…
August 21st, 2008 at 10:41 am
It was a stupid gamble to fill out the rotation with Kennedy and Hughes.
It was a misjudgment on his part to have such a weak backup plan; Ponson, Rasner, Igawa, ?Victor Zambrano?
He relied too heavily on the belief that the prospects he drafted would be able to repeat Kennedy and Chamberlain’s meteoric acsention. He basically fell in love with his own plan without seeing the bigger picture; that prospects will sometimes flame out or take years to fulfill their potential.
And aside from the pitching, he entered the season with a really old lineup *knowing* many of them were likely to decline or get injured. And this is straight from the horse’s mouth.
Just a complete crap job by Cashman entering this season.
August 21st, 2008 at 11:31 am
Kennedy & Hughes were to be #4-5 starters in the rotation (behind Wang, Pettitte & Mussina), with Chamberlain coming into the rotation as either of the two comes close to their innings cap, or if Mussina has a repeat of 2007. They stumble, Chamberlain gets moved into the rotation, and Rasner, Kartsens, Igawa, Geise, Horne, etc, etc, etc were all available on the farm just in case.
Prospects flame out, so do veterans.
And as said before, the pitching isn’t the problem with this team.
As for the “really old lineup” it was expected that Rodriguez & Posada would decline, they were coming off career years. No one saw the Posada injury coming, no one saw Jeter’s decline (or off year) coming. No one saw Cano & Cabrera doing as poorly as they have. Giambi & Damon were the injury risk, they’re hurt more often than not.
The problem is Jeter, Cano and Cabrera. Cabrera’s gone, so Jeter and Cano need to figure out whatever it is that’s keeping them at playing at the level they normally play.
August 21st, 2008 at 11:55 am
Players typically decline past 30, having 6 of them in the lineup over 34 was not a good idea, nevermind that Matsui, Damon, and Giambi all had a history.
Jeter is 34, a decline should have been expected.
36 year old catchers are prime injury candidates, no suprise there.
Cabrera went backwards in 2007, and even further backwards now. Would have been nice if he went on his way for Santana and we signed Cameron.
Cano does need to figure himself out.
I’m sorry you didn’t see the decline coming, Cashman did.