Using the “Streaks Analyzer” at Baseball-Reference.com, I decided to look at the Yankees season – prior to this three game set that they just played against the Boston Red Sox – to see how the Yankees have played (in terms of wins, losses, runs scored and allowed) in blocks of ten games.
By this, I mean, I wanted to see the Yankees results in Games 1 through 10 of this season, and then during Games 11 through 20, etc., continuing in ten game snapshots right through Game #130 – which was the last game that the Yankees played before this Boston series. Here’s the breakdown:
G # S G # F W L WP RS RA Delta 1 10 5 5 .500 31 39 -8 11 20 5 5 .500 54 54 0 21 30 4 6 .400 44 48 -4 31 40 5 5 .500 40 32 8 41 50 6 4 .600 53 50 3 51 60 5 5 .500 50 58 -8 61 70 7 3 .700 55 34 21 71 80 6 4 .600 54 44 10 81 90 5 5 .500 41 35 6 91 100 7 3 .700 47 29 18 101 110 5 5 .500 55 51 4 111 120 4 6 .400 54 64 -10 121 130 6 4 .600 54 47 7
So, here, you have 13 blocks/streaks of ten games. Note that in 8 of the 13 ten game blocks, the Yankees only played .500 ball or worse. And, in 3 of the 13 blocks of ten games they played .600 ball. Lastly, in just 2 of the 13 blocks did they play .700 ball. This explains why the Yankees overall record is what it is this season.
Check out those five blocks (out of 13) where New York played winning baseball:
G # S G # F W L WP RS RA Delta 41 50 6 4 .600 53 50 3 61 70 7 3 .700 55 34 21 71 80 6 4 .600 54 44 10 91 100 7 3 .700 47 29 18 121 130 6 4 .600 54 47 7
In each of these ten game blocks/streaks, the Yankees scored more runs than they allowed – and that, obviously, helped the Yankees win more games here than they lost.
Now, look at those 8 blocks (out of 13) where New York was just .500 or less:
G # S G # F W L WP RS RA Delta 1 10 5 5 .500 31 39 -8 11 20 5 5 .500 54 54 0 21 30 4 6 .400 44 48 -4 31 40 5 5 .500 40 32 8 51 60 5 5 .500 50 58 -8 81 90 5 5 .500 41 35 6 101 110 5 5 .500 55 51 4 111 120 4 6 .400 54 64 -10
Note that in three of these eight blocks of ten games played, the Yankees actually scored more runs than they allowed. So, in reality, the only ten game streaks where the Yankees offense was an issue this season (again, prior to the Boston series) were the following:
G # S G # F W L WP RS RA Delta 1 10 5 5 .500 31 39 -8 11 20 5 5 .500 54 54 0 21 30 4 6 .400 44 48 -4 51 60 5 5 .500 50 58 -8 111 120 4 6 .400 54 64 -10
That’s 5 blocks out of 13 – or, 50 out of 130 games. That’s roughly 39% of the time.
Granted, this is just one way to slice the pie. But, it’s an interesting pattern to use. And, it may just suggest that a lack of offense may not have been the Yankees big problem this season.
In any event, when you look at the Yankees W-L results, spread out in this manner, you do see this:
In their first 60 games this season New York’s record was: 30-30
In their next 40 games of the season, New York’s record was: 25-15
And, in their next 30 games of the season, New York’s record was 15-15.
So, outside of that run during Games 61 through 100, the Yankees have played a lot of .500 ball this year – leading into this Red Sox series.
One Response to “Is The Yankees Offense Really An Issue?”
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August 29th, 2008 at 9:07 am
Steve,
More of the same effect I commented on in an earlier post http://waswatching.com/2008/08/16/the-last-40-games/#comments. Score 5 of more runs – win 80%. Score 4 or less – win 30%.
While I admit I was pumped when it was happening, the July burst happened too late to really change the Yanks playoff hopes but too soon to push us formally into rebuilding mode. I don’t know if we could have unloaded any dead weight at the trading deadline or received any decent prospects in the bargain. Giambi had more market value than Griffey (though I doubt he’d have waived his no trade)and Abreu should have fetched something.
And I am happy with the Nady/Marte trade. I was surprised by the Farnsworth move. I thought Girardi had figured out how to get in Kyle’s head and turn him around. It was obviously a Cashman call, based on the fear of losing Molina to injury and being stuck with Moeller. As is, it ended up hurting both teams. Farnsworth lost whatever mojo he gained under Girardi and I-Rod turned into Melky Cabrera at the plate in NY.
I guess I hate being in “no mans land” – close enough to theoretically get there but too far to realistically make it. The worst of both worlds.