• Is The Yankees Offense Really An Issue?

    Posted by on August 28th, 2008 · Comments (1)

    Using the “Streaks Analyzer” at Baseball-Reference.com, I decided to look at the Yankees season – prior to this three game set that they just played against the Boston Red Sox – to see how the Yankees have played (in terms of wins, losses, runs scored and allowed) in blocks of ten games.

    By this, I mean, I wanted to see the Yankees results in Games 1 through 10 of this season, and then during Games 11 through 20, etc., continuing in ten game snapshots right through Game #130 – which was the last game that the Yankees played before this Boston series. Here’s the breakdown:

    G # S	G # F	W	L	WP	RS	RA	Delta
    1	10	5	5	.500	31	39	-8
    11	20	5	5	.500	54	54	0
    21	30	4	6	.400	44	48	-4
    31	40	5	5	.500	40	32	8
    41	50	6	4	.600	53	50	3
    51	60	5	5	.500	50	58	-8
    61	70	7	3	.700	55	34	21
    71	80	6	4	.600	54	44	10
    81	90	5	5	.500	41	35	6
    91	100	7	3	.700	47	29	18
    101	110	5	5	.500	55	51	4
    111	120	4	6	.400	54	64	-10
    121	130	6	4	.600	54	47	7
    

    So, here, you have 13 blocks/streaks of ten games. Note that in 8 of the 13 ten game blocks, the Yankees only played .500 ball or worse. And, in 3 of the 13 blocks of ten games they played .600 ball. Lastly, in just 2 of the 13 blocks did they play .700 ball. This explains why the Yankees overall record is what it is this season.

    Check out those five blocks (out of 13) where New York played winning baseball:

    G # S	G # F	W	L	WP	RS	RA	Delta
    41	50	6	4	.600	53	50	3
    61	70	7	3	.700	55	34	21
    71	80	6	4	.600	54	44	10
    91	100	7	3	.700	47	29	18
    121	130	6	4	.600	54	47	7
    

    In each of these ten game blocks/streaks, the Yankees scored more runs than they allowed – and that, obviously, helped the Yankees win more games here than they lost.

    Now, look at those 8 blocks (out of 13) where New York was just .500 or less:

    G # S	G # F	W	L	WP	RS	RA	Delta
    1	10	5	5	.500	31	39	-8
    11	20	5	5	.500	54	54	0
    21	30	4	6	.400	44	48	-4
    31	40	5	5	.500	40	32	8
    51	60	5	5	.500	50	58	-8
    81	90	5	5	.500	41	35	6
    101	110	5	5	.500	55	51	4
    111	120	4	6	.400	54	64	-10
    

    Note that in three of these eight blocks of ten games played, the Yankees actually scored more runs than they allowed. So, in reality, the only ten game streaks where the Yankees offense was an issue this season (again, prior to the Boston series) were the following:

    G # S	G # F	W	L	WP	RS	RA	Delta
    1	10	5	5	.500	31	39	-8
    11	20	5	5	.500	54	54	0
    21	30	4	6	.400	44	48	-4
    51	60	5	5	.500	50	58	-8
    111	120	4	6	.400	54	64	-10
    

    That’s 5 blocks out of 13 – or, 50 out of 130 games. That’s roughly 39% of the time.

    Granted, this is just one way to slice the pie. But, it’s an interesting pattern to use. And, it may just suggest that a lack of offense may not have been the Yankees big problem this season.

    In any event, when you look at the Yankees W-L results, spread out in this manner, you do see this:

    In their first 60 games this season New York’s record was: 30-30
    In their next 40 games of the season, New York’s record was: 25-15
    And, in their next 30 games of the season, New York’s record was 15-15.

    So, outside of that run during Games 61 through 100, the Yankees have played a lot of .500 ball this year – leading into this Red Sox series.

    Comments on Is The Yankees Offense Really An Issue?

    1. John ONeil
      August 29th, 2008 | 9:07 am

      Steve,

      More of the same effect I commented on in an earlier post http://waswatching.com/2008/08/16/the-last-40-games/#comments. Score 5 of more runs – win 80%. Score 4 or less – win 30%.

      While I admit I was pumped when it was happening, the July burst happened too late to really change the Yanks playoff hopes but too soon to push us formally into rebuilding mode. I don’t know if we could have unloaded any dead weight at the trading deadline or received any decent prospects in the bargain. Giambi had more market value than Griffey (though I doubt he’d have waived his no trade)and Abreu should have fetched something.

      And I am happy with the Nady/Marte trade. I was surprised by the Farnsworth move. I thought Girardi had figured out how to get in Kyle’s head and turn him around. It was obviously a Cashman call, based on the fear of losing Molina to injury and being stuck with Moeller. As is, it ended up hurting both teams. Farnsworth lost whatever mojo he gained under Girardi and I-Rod turned into Melky Cabrera at the plate in NY.

      I guess I hate being in “no mans land” – close enough to theoretically get there but too far to realistically make it. The worst of both worlds.

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