• Yanks Dead? Regret Signing A-Rod?

    Posted by on August 29th, 2008 · Comments (7)

    Seth Everett and Lori Rubinson, on SNY’s Geico SportsNite, discuss the questions. Here’s the video:

    The A-Rod debate got me thinking. We know that the Yankees, to date, are 8-43 this season when they are trailing in a game after four innings. And, we know that A-Rod has only driven in three runs, all season, after the 7th inning of a ballgame. Think those two stats are connected?

    For the record, the Rays are 16-37 this season when trailing after four innings. And, the Angels are 15-34. So, while the Yankees look bad here – they’re really about 7 to 8 wins away from being good in this split. But, how much of that 7 to 8 win gap is because of their clean-up hitter not cleaning up in the late innings?

    Comments on Yanks Dead? Regret Signing A-Rod?

    1. Raf
      August 29th, 2008 | 11:15 am

      But, how much of that 7 to 8 win gap is because of their clean-up hitter not cleaning up in the late innings?
      ————–
      Good question. More, less or the same than Jeter, Melky & Cano having lousy seasons?

    2. August 29th, 2008 | 11:43 am

      The league average when trailing after 4 innings is .185, so the Yankees are about a game and a half below average. Following innings 5-8, the Yankees have an about average come-from-behind rate. Then, in the ninth inning, their one win out of 53 ninth inning deficits is below average by three wins.

      Anyway, how many more games would feature a late-game deficit if the A-Rod weren’t on the team? Why does it matter whether his contribution comes in the first inning or the seventh? If the Yankees don’t sign A-Rod, they have to go with league average or worse, since the options a third just weren’t there. (A trade for Miguel Cabrera would have ended badly, as he’s proven he’s incapable of playing third anymore.)

      Without A-Rod, the Yankees score fewer runs and win fewer games. I don’t see what’s so hard to understand about this!

    3. August 29th, 2008 | 11:51 am

      In addition, why not show the Yankees’ winning percentage when leading after a certain inning. I’ve also included league average:

      4th: .870 (AVG: .774)
      5th: .963 (AVG: .815)
      6th: .948 (AVG: .851)
      7th: .983 (AVG: .903)
      8th: 1.000 (AVG: .956)

      In addition, the Yankees are 15-4 in extra innings. Most of this is probably due to the Yankees’ top notch bullpen. But some credit has to go to an offense that extends leads, right?

    4. August 29th, 2008 | 12:12 pm

      15-4?

      According to my stats, the Yankees are 6-2 in extra inning games this season.

      Where are you getting your stats? Are you sure that any of them are correct?

    5. August 29th, 2008 | 12:58 pm

      My stats came from here:

      http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/inning_summary.cgi?team_id=NYY&year_game=2008

      The 15-4 number is indeed incorrect, I made a dumb mistake and added up all of the extra inning records. Of course, all games tied after 9 innings are included in the later stats. 6-2 is correct, and is better than average as well. The other numbers are correct, and show that the Yankees are much better at keeping leads than other teams.

    6. hopbitters
      August 29th, 2008 | 3:09 pm

      Anyway, how many more games would feature a late-game deficit if the A-Rod weren’t on the team? Why does it matter whether his contribution comes in the first inning or the seventh?

      Without A-Rod, the Yankees score fewer runs and win fewer games. I don’t see what’s so hard to understand about this!

      -

      Me neither, but this same conversation keeps happening anyway.

    7. Don
      August 30th, 2008 | 2:56 am

      Of course the Yankees would have added a quality bat to replace A-Freud, and had tons of money remaining. Instead, we have nine more years of this circus to go – those declining years should be some fun. Calliope music, please.

      What has this team won with him? All you Alex fans, have you really enjoyed his five seasons here? When it is more about him than the team?

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