Comments on: The Power Of Four http://waswatching.com/2008/08/30/the-power-of-four/ Holy Cow! We never take cannoli from a huckleberry. Fri, 25 May 2012 22:39:35 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.2.1 By: August 30th vs. The Blue Jays : WasWatching.com http://waswatching.com/2008/08/30/the-power-of-four/comment-page-1/#comment-42979 August 30th vs. The Blue Jays : WasWatching.com Sat, 30 Aug 2008 21:19:20 +0000 http://waswatching.com/?p=6582#comment-42979 [...] file this one away in that 26% drawer. It’s games like this one as to why the Yankees are where they are this [...] [...] file this one away in that 26% drawer. It’s games like this one as to why the Yankees are where they are this [...]

]]> By: mehmattski http://waswatching.com/2008/08/30/the-power-of-four/comment-page-1/#comment-42978 mehmattski Sat, 30 Aug 2008 18:44:49 +0000 http://waswatching.com/?p=6582#comment-42978 This is a lot like one of my early posts, that you linked to in February 2007: http://www.immaculateinning.com/2007/02/dyjs-giant-data-set-of-doom.html I called what you are tracking above "Did Your Job Stat," reflecting that if the offense scores five runs, they've done their job (similarly for the pitching holding the other team below five runs). What I showed then was that teams the ability to score and prevent runs at a greater than average rate (in individual games) tend to win more games. This was more true of pitching, where allowing four or fewer runs in a game had a 65.7% correlation with win percentage. This is almost identical to the correlation between total runs scored and win percentage. I concluded that there was no greater predicting power given by run scoring/preventing "consistency" than by simply using Pythagorean Winning percentage.

This is a lot like one of my early posts, that you linked to in February 2007:

http://www.immaculateinning.com/2007/02/dyjs-giant-data-set-of-doom.html

I called what you are tracking above “Did Your Job Stat,” reflecting that if the offense scores five runs, they’ve done their job (similarly for the pitching holding the other team below five runs).

What I showed then was that teams the ability to score and prevent runs at a greater than average rate (in individual games) tend to win more games. This was more true of pitching, where allowing four or fewer runs in a game had a 65.7% correlation with win percentage. This is almost identical to the correlation between total runs scored and win percentage.

I concluded that there was no greater predicting power given by run scoring/preventing “consistency” than by simply using Pythagorean Winning percentage.

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