Ol’ Man Moose Math
Mike Mussina is 39-years old this season. And, he’s thrown 172.1 IP to date this year. Just for the fun of it, I asked the Complete Baseball Encyclopedia to show me the best seasons, in terms of RSAA, for pitchers in the A.L., since 1973, with at least 170 IP and an age of 39 or older. Here’s the top ten for that cut:
Pitcher YEAR RSAA IP Dennis Martinez 1994 29 176.2 Charlie Hough 1987 28 285.1 Dennis Martinez 1995 28 187.0 Jamie Moyer 2003 27 215.0 Tom Seaver 1985 25 238.2 Kenny Rogers 2005 23 195.1 Nolan Ryan 1991 21 173.0 Nolan Ryan 1989 21 239.1 Mike Mussina 2008 21 172.1 Jamie Moyer 2002 21 230.2 Charlie Hough 1988 21 252.0
As you can see, Moose is having a magical season, this year, for an old-timer starting pitcher in the A.L. during the D.H. era.
Dennis Martinez catches my eye here. From ages 33 through 38, Martinez threw 1366.1 IP and had 108 RSAA.
From ages 33 through 38, Mike Mussina threw 1124 IP and had 38 RSAA.
So, when you see Dennis Martinez throw 176.2 IP and have 29 RSAA, at age 39, it’s not like he was coming out of the blue with a good season as an older pitcher. But, in a way, Mussina’s effectiveness this season is a big jump from what he’s done in the six years combined.
However, that’s not really the best way to look at it. It’s better to look at Moose season-by-season. Here, he was great in 2003, just average in 2004 and 2005, great in 2006, and then below average in 2007.
So, how will Mike Mussina pitch in 2009, at age 40? No one can predict that – and be sure. There’s just nothing out there that will tell you, either way, lock-solid, in terms of a pattern or consistent trend.
I wonder if the Yankees are concerned about this – related to their school of thought around bringing Mike Mussina back next year?
