The Numbers Guy: A-Rod, Clutch Hitter
WasWatching.com reader “dgreen323″ recently asked me to comment on Carl Bialik’s WSJ The Numbers Guy Blog entry entitled “Alex Rodriguez, Clutch Hitter.” Here are the highlights of what Carl had to say:
I prefer using a stat called leverage index, which helps quantify “the possible change in win probability,” as baseball stat guru Tom Tango describes it.
I also eschewed batting average and runs batted in for OPS, which is on-base percentage plus slugging percentage.
[Alex Rodriguez] career OPS in high-leverage situations is .975. In medium-leverage, it’s .960. And in low-leverage, it’s .972. That’s consistent with the American League as a whole during his career, when each year batters in high-leverage situations hit somewhere between 1% worse and 6% better than they did in low-leverage situations.
In 2004, [Rodriguez] hit 19% better in high-leverage situations than in low-leverage ones. In 2005 and 2006, he hit 17% worse. Last year, he hit 15% better. And this year, he’d hit 32% worse, through Monday.
By this measure, A-Rod’s clutch hitting has been a career-worst this season. (Though his OPS in high-leverage situations is still better than the league as a whole; he’s just that much better than average.)
But according to Bowling Green State University statistician Jim Albert, the effect isn’t statistically significant: All we can say is that, based on this season, we’re 95% confident that A-Rod’s true clutch hitting is somewhere between 66% worse than his hitting in unimportant situations, and 2% better. The problem is small sample size: In a typical season with the Yankees, Mr. Rodriguez only gets about 130 plate appearances in clutch situations.
Now, A-Rod and his stats in various leverage situations is something that I’ve written about here back in April. So, I have respect for using stats such as these to make a point.
However, lately, watching Alex, something else has come to my mind. It’s a study that Bill James introduced back at the end of last season – addressing clutch hitting. And, back then James said that:
“Clutch” is a complicated concept, containing at least seven elements:
1. The score,
2. The runners on base,
3. The outs,
4. The inning,
5. The opposition,
6. The standings,
7. The calendar.Sometimes people look at things like batting average with runners in scoring position, batting average with runners in scoring position and two out, batting average in the late innings of close games. Those things are all interesting, but Tampa Bay playing Texas in April is not the same as San Diego playing Los Angeles in September.
And, when it comes to A-Rod, or anyone for that matter, I think you have to consider points five through seven in Bill James’ clutch measure.
Sure, A-Rod might an OPS of .787 in High Leverage situations this season. And, his sOPS+ in this split may be, at this moment, 111 – meaning that his OPS is 111% (in this situation) compared to the OPS for rest of baseball.
But, while the “leverage” slice tells us that Alex may be doing well in these “game” situations, it’s not telling us if he is padding his stats here in games once the Yankees were out of it, and/or, in games against teams that are not that strong. So, in a sense, the stats tells us how he does it the big spot in the game – but it’s not telling us if he’s doing it in the big spot of the “big game.”
And, as fans, isn’t that what we want to see from our big bat? We want to see him come through in the big spot in the big game…and not just when there’s nothing on the line with respect to winning and losing that game.
Just some food for thought in regard to looking at A-Rod and the question of his ability to come through in the “clutch.” Before you can say he does it, or not, you have to be clear on what’s really “clutch,” or not, first.
The wizards at Baseball Prospectus spent a full chapter on this (about 20 pages and 10 charts worth) in BASEBALL BETWEEN THE NUMBERS; but I didn’t find their conclusions all that compelling. I will say that when it comes to “clutch hitting” most of us tend to frame our thinking around certain presuppositions. One being that a clutch hit is an RBI producing hit—like Joe Carter’s game winning HR in game Six of the ’93 Series. But who got the hit that moved the tying run into scoring position and put the winning run on base ahead of Carter? Wasn’t Paul Molitor’s single a “clutch hit” in the context of when it occured? Or are all clutch hits RBI hits and, therefore, can only happen in successful RBI situations? After all, Molitor didn’t homer to win the game.
Steve,
Fair response. But your last comment: “And, as fans, isn’t that what we want to see from our big bat? We want to see him come through in the big spot in the big game…and not just when there’s nothing on the line with respect to winning and losing that game.”
First, it’s deceiving and inaccurate to characterize this article as saying that he comes thru when there’s nothing on the line. That’s not at all what it says and by saying that, you’re just going back to the flawed argument of your own human perception and ignoring the stats.
And what’s more important, to come thru in one spot, in one game, or to consistently come through throughout the season. The second one is more important to getting wins. And the article shows that his OPS in high leverage situations is right in line with his spectacular career averages. And with the Yanks, he’s had 2 years above his average and 3 below.
Overall, for his career these numbers are going to be right in line with his career line, which is as good or better than just about anyone who’s ever played the game. And as long as those people who simply don’t like him give him no credit when he gets all the big hits (see last year), and just say “i told you so” when he doesn’t, the perception of those people will always be that he’s “unclutch.”
~~it’s deceiving and inaccurate to characterize this article as saying that he comes thru when there’s nothing on the line. ~~
Did I say that?
More so, what I’m trying to say is…with OPS in High Leverage situations, it counts games in April against the Royals, and games in September against the Rangers – when you’re 11 games out of first, as the same as games in July against the Red Sox, or games in August when you’re three games back in the WC chase…
and, that’s the issue with using OPS in H.L. situations…it doesn’t tell you anything about the “big” nature of the game.
And, I believe, if you ask many who are down on A-Rod, they will state that’s their beef with him…that he comes through when it’s time to pad his stats…but not when you need him the most.
Let me get this straight – you want a measure of “clutch” that zeros in on an ever smaller sample size? Forgive me but that’s nuts.
A season is made up of 162 individual games. What A-Rod does in a “late and close” situation against KC in April does count the same, because if he comes through in enough of those games that you don’t want to recognize as “clutch” then his team will be in a much better position to reach the playoffs at the end of 162 individual chances to be “clutch”.
~~Let me get this straight – you want a measure of “clutch” that zeros in on an ever smaller sample size? Forgive me but that’s nuts.~~
It’s Bill James theory/approach, not mine.
Is Bill nuts too?