Sherman: 5 Things For Yanks To Fix
Today, Joel Sherman offers “FIVE CRITICAL MISTAKES YANKS MUST FIX FOR ’09.” Here they are:
WHEN YOU CAN GET A PRIME-AGED ACE, MOVE HEAVEN, EARTH AND – CERTAINLY – PHIL HUGHES TO GET HIM – My biggest reason for advocating the acquisition of Johan Santana has not changed since the offseason. The Yanks had been looking for just this kind of No. 1 starter. They had gone exotic (Hideki Irabu, Jose Contreras), old (Kevin Brown, Roger Clemens, Randy Johnson) and on belief they could grow one in their lab (Jeff Weaver, Javier Vazquez, Carl Pavano). Aside from Clemens in his first Yankees incarnation, these were pretty much expensive busts.
THE PROSPECTS YOU HAVE TO KNOW THE BEST ARE YOUR OWN – There are many reasons the Yankees recently had a dynasty. But right atop the list was that one-time GM Gene Michael did a great job of separating the keepers (Bernie Williams, Derek Jeter, Andy Pettitte, Mariano Rivera and Jorge Posada) from the disposable.
Joe Girardi, Tino Martinez, Jeff Nelson, Paul O’Neill and David Cone were among the key pieces to the dynasty that were obtained by dealing farmhands. Believe it or not, the people who ran the Yankees farm system in 1995 were as obsessed with not trading top pitching prospect Marty Janzen as any Yankees official was in keeping Hughes out of a Santana trade last offseason. If you are asking, Marty who? Exactly.
THESE ARE THE YANKEES; EARN YOUR WAY INTO A SIGNIFICANT ROLE – Hughes and Kennedy had not done enough to earn no-questions-asked roles in the 2008 rotation, and the bigger mistake was believing not one, but two neophytes could step right into a rotation.
LONG-TERM CONTRACTS GO ONLY TO THOSE WHO PLAY HARD AND CONCENTRATE FULLY – Again, why did the Yanks not know Cano better? They had seen him wander mentally for three seasons in the majors and several years in the minors before investing long-term in him.
HOW DO YOU DE-EMPHASIZE THE HIGHEST-PAID, BIGGEST STAR ON YOUR TEAM? – It was nice mythology built around how Alex Rodriguez and the Yankees decided to come back together last offseason. And, yes, the word is “mythology.” Mainly because Rodriguez claimed he returned only because what he wanted most was to be a Yankee. The reality – besides money and the trappings of fame – is that A-Rod has no idea what he wants.
The true Yankee did not stick around for either the Home Run Derby or the whole All-Star Game at Yankee Stadium, go to Bobby Murcer’s memorial in Oklahoma City (like Jeter and Pettitte did) or show up at a reasonable time for Old-Timer’s Day.
I cannot disagree with any of these points.
The first four are situations that can be tied to Brian Cashman. The last one, A-Rod, was all Hank Steinbrenner. If Cashman returns after this season, I don’t think the first four will be addressed. So, if this is what it will take to fix the Yankees, don’t expect the Yankees to be fixed in time for next year.
My god, can everyone who was for the Santana trade please stop with the I told you so’s. The decision not to make this trade was never about 2008. Obviously, the Yankees had a better chance of winning in 2008 with Santana rather than with two starters who have hardly any major league experience under their belt. Everyone, including the people who were against the trade, knew this.
The decision not to make this trade was about the long term. It was about having the rights to a possible top of the rotation starter (and by that I mean #1 or #2) and back of the rotation starter for at least the next 6 years. Having those two things is more valuable than having an ace pitcher that is just past his prime and has already shown signs of decline for the next 7 years.
And this is in no way an insult to Johan. He’s had a great season, though you must also take into account that it’s been in a pitcher’s park in the weaker league. He got knocked around a bit in the 2nd half last year in the AL. He’s lost velocity on his fastball and doesn’t throw his slider nearly as much as he did. It was this combination of pitches that made him otherworldly from 2004-2006.
So given the choice of making this deal now, or just going hard after a similarly dominant pitcher a year later, one that will only cost you money and not your best prospects, it’s still a no-brainer to me to be patient and go for the free agent. The only way it wouldn’t be is if you put this year above all else, and you’re willing to dig yourself into a deeper hole in the long term. One where you have to continue to lock yourself into overpriced, lengthy contracts with older players who are just about to, if they haven’t already, begun their decline.
You must be patient with young pitching or else you will never develop it. Most young pitchers are not Joba. One example that comes to mind this season is another Santana, Ervin. He came up in ’05 at the ripe age of 22. The Angels thought very highly of him, but he was at best average and at worst well below average for his first three seasons. But this year he’s put it all together and shown ace stuff. Easily a #2 starter, with clear ace potential as soon as next season.
If you never give guys time, you will never have a 25 year ace who is locked into your team for as long as you want him to be. You’ll just end up overpaying for the same guy when he’s 30.
By the time he was 22, Ervin had 133.2 IP in the bigs with -7 RSAA.
To date, through age 22, Hughes has 94.2 IP with -9 RSAA.
That’s close. But, the next season, at age 23, Santana threw 203 IP for the Angels with 2 RSAA. That was the tell that he could be a future ace.
Are we going to see Hughes throw 200 IP next year and be at least league average?
Can anyone say that, for sure?
Relied on THREE prospects … you forgot about Joba? That worked out. But of course, the idea is to trash Cashman.
I strongly disagree with the Santana point time and time again. Sherman does this for a living? Santana has a 7 ERA at Fenway, was giving up more and more homeruns and if a trade was made the Yanks needed to get a Hunter or a Rowand (add 15 mill extra in payroll) to play center. Giving up a gaggle of prospects and adding 40 mill in payroll to a 209 million dollar payroll is bad business AND baseball sense. The Yanks’ problem this year wasn’t pitching it was RISP AND scoring runs relative to past years.
~~Relied on THREE prospects … you forgot about Joba? That worked out. But of course, the idea is to trash Cashman.~~
And, two failed, terribly. So, Cashman’s batting .667 in terms of failing on that call.
If the offense hits the way they had been hitting for the last 4-5 years, then we’re not having this conversation. The pitching is performing the way it has been the last few years.
Once again, the problem with this team is that the offense is offensive.