Oct 01
Everyone else seems to be offering “picks” for this post-season. So, I thought I would throw mine out there as well. Here goes:
Red Sox – Angels ALDS: Angels
White Sox – Rays ALDS: Rays
Dodgers – Cubs NLDS: Cubs – but it will be close.
Brewers – Phillies NLDS: Phillies
ALCS: Angels – but it will be close.
NLCS: Cubs
World Series: Cubs. Hey, that’s what I said on April 1st – and I’m sticking with it.
12 Responses to “2008 Post-Season Picks”
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October 1st, 2008 at 12:08 pm
I agree with all of those picks. Scary!
October 1st, 2008 at 12:15 pm
FWIW, I tried to make the picks using the Dayn Perry and Vinay Kumar indicators as a guide…eyeballing the stats and going by feel, etc.
October 1st, 2008 at 12:17 pm
Steve
Really bad job on your collapse logic in the previous thread.
We could say, if the yankees didn’t collapse in 04, the red so don’t win a WS, maybe don’t recover, and don’t win another one. Therefore, epstein deserves no credit for what’s happened in the last 5 years. This is the logic you are applying.
Collapses happen, yes. But that doesn’t mean that a team good enough to take advantage of that collapse deserves to be discredited
October 1st, 2008 at 12:19 pm
Pat – please, lets stay in topic within the appropriate threads. See:
http://waswatching.com/about/
October 1st, 2008 at 12:49 pm
Yeah, I did that too somewhat even though the Red Sox have better stats than the Angels there is one stat they are lacking:
The past 13 ALCS winners all had a winning road record. The Angels are the only AL team in the playoffs with a winning road record. So, that’s why I picked the Angels to go the World Series and to do that they have to beat Boston in the first round.
Some other observations:
- The Dodgers have the best pitching staff in the NL, but the Cubs are second in both pitching and hitting. Plus, I don’t think Manny is going to see much to hit and I don’t trust the kids on the Dodgers to step up.
- The Phillies surprisingly are the third best pitching team in the NL, mostly because of their exceptional bullpen. C.C. is really the Brewers only hope. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Phillies take care of the Brewers fairly easily.
- The White Sox have struggled to score lately and rely too much on the HR. I think the Rays pitching is too good for them. The great defense helps them too. The key will be if the Rays lineup hits.
October 1st, 2008 at 1:02 pm
Antone,
I largely agree with you and almost believe the Angels will win just on being due to handle the Sox. But instead I am going to appeal to blind faith and a belief that winning playoff experience counts for something, and go with the Sox over the Angels.
Either way, I agree that the ALCS will be close … and in the end, the fact is that if the Cubs and Sox make it, I cannot rejoice in a Sox victory. My parents aren’t getting any younger and I could take no pleasure if the Sox caused them heartache in this magical season. In fact I’d probably feel pretty damn guilty and want to pretend the season never happened.
So maybe it would be best if the Sox just get eliminated, if I knew the Cubs would come through …
October 1st, 2008 at 1:24 pm
Also, the health of Beckett could be a key factor in the series.
I’m a little worried about the Angels starters who pitched over their heads this season(Santana, Saunders),but they do have a better bullpen than the Sox in my mind and I kind of think this will be a bullpen series.
You can throw regular season record out the window because Yanks dominated the Indians in the regular season last year going 6-0 and then lost in the playoffs.
I think the series will go 5 games no matter who wins. I will admit though that I think the Sox look like the best team on paper and I would not be surprised to see them win it all again, but the losing road record definitely stands out to me.
October 1st, 2008 at 1:43 pm
I don’t know about the bullpen advantage – the top five of Paps, Delcarmen, Okajima, Masterson and Lopez posted outstanding ERAs after the ASB, as in something like 2.89 or lower, and the 2.89 was Javy Lopez who figures to be a purely situational guy in October. I think they’ve turned what was a weakness into a strength that can hang with anyone (assuming Delcarmen doesn’t get Bug Eye Syndrome and Okajima only starts innings
)
Steve should have looked at Baseball Prospectus’ “Secret Sauce” of strikeout pitching, defensive efficiency and a great closer as the strongest predictors of post-season success. By those measures, the Sox are 1, Cubs 2 and Angels 4 (SI’s column doesn’t mention which non-playoff team is 3):
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/writers/john_donovan/10/01/playoffs.keyfactors/index.html
October 1st, 2008 at 2:13 pm
My guess is the Blue Jays would be 3rd on that list.
Papelbon has been touched up a few more times than usual this season. I do not trust Delcarmen and Lopez. I think you will see Masterson, out there before Delcarmen. In a perfect world for the Sox, I would think it would go Masterson in the 7th, Okajima in the 8th, and Papelbon in the 9th. Or in cases when Dice-K pitches then Masterson pitches the 6th and 7th..HA!
October 1st, 2008 at 2:16 pm
Oh..and Lopez won’t be needed much against the Angels…maybe against Anderson but Teixiera is a switch hitter and Vlad is a righty, so I would imagine in a key situation that Francona will just use the best available reliever.
October 1st, 2008 at 6:52 pm
while im in the 3rd inning of a dvr’ed brewers phillies game i wonder, what about prince fielder? He’s a good hitter and is has a firey spirit, and is a great clubhouse leader…someone that will literally, hehe, get at somebody for not husseling (cano). Ya hes fat, but he could play 1st for a few years till the dh spot is free then sit there till he becomes too fat then let him go.
October 1st, 2008 at 6:53 pm
* i have also read that the brewers are looking to move him cause hes gonna be expensive in arb. I would give up a few good prospects for him.