Tony Brizzolara?

The question regarding the career starts of Cole Hamels and Jon Lester, as compared to Phil Hughes, posted here earlier today, got me wondering “If you look at the start of Hughes’ career, what pitchers have had the same relative performance, at the same game, in the same amount of opportunity, etc.?” So, I started playing around with Baseball-Reference.com’s Play Index and came up with the following list:

  Cnt Player            ERA+   IP   From  To   Ages   G   GS
+----+-----------------+----+------+----+----+-----+----+---+
    1 Frank Castillo      89  111.2 1991 1991 22-22   18  18
    2 Philip Hughes       86  106.2 2007 2008 21-22   21  21
    3 Jesse Foppert       84  111   2003 2003 22-22   23  21
    4 Pete Harnisch       80  116.1 1988 1989 21-22   20  19
    5 Tony Brizzolara     77  107.1 1979 1979 22-22   20  19

For those interested, here’s the logic that was used to cut this list: Spanning Multiple Seasons or entire Careers, From 1901 to 2008, From Age 21 to 22, Throws RH, (requiring ERAp<=90, IP>=100, IP<=120, ERAp>=70, and At least 90% games started), sorted by greatest ERAp

For the record, sans Castillo, all of these guys were high draft picks (and hopes) for their teams.  Here’s the background:

Frank Castillo
Drafted by the Chicago Cubs in the 6th round of the 1987 amateur draft.

Phil Hughes
Drafted by the New York Yankees in the 1st round (23rd pick) of the 2004 amateur draft.

Jesse Foppert
Drafted by the San Francisco Giants in the 2nd round of the 2001 amateur draft.

Pete Harnisch
Drafted by the Baltimore Orioles in the 1st round (27th pick) of the 1987 amateur draft.

Tony Brizzolara
Drafted by the Atlanta Braves in the 2nd round of the 1977 amateur draft.

Harnisch went on to have a decent career.  He made an All-Star team in 1991 and three times (1991, 1993 and 1998) he finished in the “Top Ten” in his league’s ERA leaders.  And, in 1991, 1992, and 1993, he finished in the “Top Ten” in his league’s strikeout leaders. 

Will Hughes be better than Harnisch?  Worse?  The same?  Nobody knows, for sure…

We’ll have to check back on this in ten years, or so, for the true answer.

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