It’s No Win For Phil Hughes In AFL
Earlier today, Phil Hughes started a game in the Arizona Fall League (AFL) and went 5 innings – allowing just one hit, no runs, while also walking five and getting seven strikeouts. Of course, the headline at Yankees.com regarding this story reads “Hughes dominates in AFL season debut.”
In any event, here’s the deal for Hughes in the AFL this winter: He cannot win.
I’ve seen the rosters of the teams in the AFL. In the current print edition of Baseball America, along with the rosters, they list the “highest level” of pro-ball for each player in the AFL. And, according to my rough eye-ball estimation, about 90% of the players in the AFL have not played above Double-A yet in their career.
So, what is Phil Hughes proving when he pitches well in the AFL this winter? Is he proving that he can retire Double-A hitters? Heck, we already know that – check his minor league record. Now, sure, granted, these teams are like mini-all-star teams of Double-A players – and that’s tougher than facing a “regular” Double-A team. However, beating up on a mini-all-star team of Double-A players still tells you nothing about a pitcher’s ability to retire a team full of major league hitters.
So, this is why Phil Hughes “cannot win” in the AFL this winter. If he pitches well, or, if he “dominates” (as Yankees.com likes to fanboy it), he’s simply doing what he’s supposed to be doing when he faces Double-A batters…and what he did back in 2006 when he made 21 starts in Double-A. On the flipside, if Hughes gets battered around in the AFL this winter, it’s not great news for him, or the Yankees, considering the level of batters that he’s facing.
In summary, if Hughes does well, it’s not news. And, if Hughes does poorly, it’s just bad news. There’s no winning here for Phil.
Well…almost no winning. There’s still the element of getting some work in, making a regular turn in a rotation, building arm strength, and not getting hurt in the process. Now, if Hughes can do that in the AFL, that’s a win – of sorts. And, that’s probably the most important thing to watch when it comes to Hughes pitching in the AFL – and not how few hits or runs he allows…especially when he’s pitching to kids who are two years behind him in their baseball resumes.
You should make Hughes your 2009 “bet” like your Jason Giambi one.
BTW, you kind of got mentioned (and somewhat insulted) on FireJoeMorgan if you didn’t know. (See the October 10th entry.)
I’ll think about a bet for Hughes…let’s see how he gets through the winter and the first few weeks of camp next year…before I promise anything.
Thanks for the heads-up about FJM
Let’s keep that last paragraph in mind for the inevitable shaky AFL outing, and not immediately assume the end is near for Hughes.
I don’t think Phil Hughes is in Arizona to prove anything. He’s just there to get innings. I believe that’s the same reason why Humberto Sanchez and Kevin Whelan and Jeff Marquez are there as well.
All of them spent time on the DL and need innings.
Hopefully hes using this time to work on his secondary pitches which were awful last yr
I don’t think Phil Hughes is in Arizona to prove anything. He’s just there to get innings.
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Exactly.
Not for nothing, but there was a post on RAB that said this:
I just looked through the rosters, and 121 total pitchers have been assigned to the AzFL this year. Exactly 12 are younger than Phil.
~~~I just looked through the rosters, and 121 total pitchers have been assigned to the AzFL this year. Exactly 12 are younger than Phil.~~
How many are older?
How many are younger than Joba Chamberlain? How many are older?
How many are younger than Chad Billingsley? How many are older?
How many are younger than Felix Hernandez? How many are older?
Well, as Felix is two months older than Phil, Joba is 9 months older than Phil, and Billingsley is nearly 2 years older than Phil, I’d imagine the answer to all 3 questions would be:
Not as many as are younger than Phil.
And it’s still an irrelevant standard anyway, as not all pitchers develop at the same rate, and not all pitchers that are overpowering very early in their careers stand the test of time.
As to a more relevant point, it’s true that something like 85% of the hitters have not gone further than AA, but 80% of them are still older than Phil is.