• Prediction On Yanks’ Pending Free Agents

    Posted by on October 25th, 2008 · Comments (15)

    Just for the fun of it, and pretty much done on the fly without any deep thought, here are some early predictions on where the Yankees “free agents” will be playing next season:

    Bobby Abreu: San Francisco Giants
    Jason Giambi: Seattle Mariners
    Mike Mussina: Retired
    Carl Pavano: St. Louis Cardinals
    Andy Pettitte: New York Yankees
    Sidney Ponson: Long Island Ducks
    Ivan Rodriguez: New York Mets

    It will be interesting to look back at this spitball guess when these players actually do find out where they will be playing in 2009.

    What do you think of these predictions? If you don’t agree, what are yours?

    Comments on Prediction On Yanks’ Pending Free Agents

    1. MJ
      October 25th, 2008 | 11:47 am

      Abreu: Yanks
      Giambi: A’s
      Moose: Yanks
      Pavano: Cards
      Pettitte: Yanks
      Ponson: California Penal
      Pudge: Mets

      I don’t think the Yanks will let Abreu walk because I don’t think they can afford to. The market is paper-thin for OF’ers this winter and next. As it is, they have Matsui, Damon, Cabrera, and Gardner as four ill-fitting pieces in LF and CF. They can’t really afford to trot out a no-hit/no-glove OF at all 3 positions and I think they realize that.

    2. October 25th, 2008 | 12:03 pm

      Abreu wants 3 years. The Yankees would be insane to give him that. Hence, Nady will be in RF, Damon will be in LF or CF, and the third spot will be Gardner or someone else…

    3. yanksofny
      October 25th, 2008 | 12:13 pm

      Abreu: Mets
      Giambi: A’s
      Moose: Montoursville, PA
      Pavano: Cards
      Pettitte: Yanks
      Ponson: Mexican League until a scout finds him and calls cashman around june 16th
      Pudge: marlins

      I think it’s time for the yanks to cut ties with most of their free agents. Get as many picks as you can and GET YOUNGER.

    4. October 25th, 2008 | 12:15 pm

      FWIW, I could see the Mets, too, be in play for Abreu.

      And, FWIW, I could see the Rays and Jays have an interest in Giambi – maybe even the Red Sox if Lowell is messed up.

    5. MJ
      October 25th, 2008 | 12:34 pm

      Abreu wants 3 years. The Yankees would be insane to give him that.
      ————————–
      You can’t categorically rule a player out simply based on his initial demands. The market will take shape and we’ll see where we stand. I stand by my belief that the Yanks know that they can’t go into next year with a dogshit OF that includes three of Nady, Cabrera, Matsui, Damon, and Gardner.

    6. MJ
      October 25th, 2008 | 12:37 pm

      I think it’s time for the yanks to cut ties with most of their free agents. Get as many picks as you can and GET YOUNGER.
      ———————–
      First, not all these players will yield picks. Second, you don’t just get picks by letting players walk. You have to offer them arbitration first and that process has the built-in risk that a player may actually accept arbitration and thus the move backfires.

      The Yanks should cut ties with Ponson and Pavano for sure. I wouldn’t be too quick to toss out Pudge given that it’s very possible that Posada never catches again. As we saw, Molina can’t play 140 games a year. Frankly, I wonder if Pudge doesn’t have the Yanks by the short-hairs right now. I don’t particularly want him around but I also don’t know who the Yanks can peg as their everday catcher if Posada ends up becoming a full-time DH.

    7. MJ
      October 25th, 2008 | 12:40 pm

      And, FWIW, I could see the Rays and Jays have an interest in Giambi – maybe even the Red Sox if Lowell is messed up.
      ———————-
      I’m sure the Jays will kick the tires on Giambi. They love overpaying for old DH types that they can then clash with and put on waivers (Hillenbrand, Thomas). The Jays are one of the worst-run organizations in baseball.

      The Sox looking at Giambi wouldn’t surprise me. If Lowell can’t come back, they can move Youkilis to 3B full time and stick Giambi at 1B. Plus, Giambi can be insurance for Ortiz in case that bad wrist of his doesn’t heal properly.

    8. yanksofny
      October 25th, 2008 | 1:43 pm

      First, not all these players will yield picks. Second, you don’t just get picks by letting players walk. You have to offer them arbitration first and that process has the built-in risk that a player may actually accept arbitration and thus the move backfires.
      —————————————————-
      I understand the process by which free agent compensation works and how it may backfire. Maybe I should have added: Get as many picks as you can by offering arbitration to the higher end FAs that will grab the most attention

    9. OnceIWasAYankeeFan
      October 25th, 2008 | 2:37 pm

      And, FWIW, I could see the Rays and Jays have an interest in Giambi – maybe even the Red Sox if Lowell is messed up.
      ———————-

      The Sox looking at Giambi wouldn’t surprise me. If Lowell can’t come back, they can move Youkilis to 3B full time and stick Giambi at 1B. Plus, Giambi can be insurance for Ortiz in case that bad wrist of his doesn’t heal properly.

      ****************************

      You two are completely insane! Theo values run prevention way too much to ever consider Giambi for anything. He also wants to continue to get younger, not sign guys on the wrong side of 35.

      Red Sox commitments for next year total nearly 50 million dollars below their recent payroll. Look for them to make an extremely serious play for Teixeira, with Youk moved to third and Lowell moved away, possibly to the team that wanted him for more years and more money, the Phils (I’m assuming they didn’t give Feliz any sort of long-term deal but even if they did, they’d get equal defense and better offense, so why wouldn’t they want to upgrade? Of course, with his hip surgery Theo will have to lower his sights on what Lowell is worth, but he’d be more than happy to do that if he landed Teixeira).

    10. AndrewYF
      October 25th, 2008 | 2:47 pm

      The chances that Theo signs Giambi to any kind of deal are lower than the Yankees holding a “Carl Pavano Day”.

    11. October 25th, 2008 | 3:37 pm

      The Cubs are reportedly interested in Bobby Abreu but, of course, that could just be speculation. I don’t know if they could handle his defense out in Wrigley.

      I think it makes a lot of sense for the Mariners to sign Giambi. Their team swings at everything and at least he’d provide a spark in the OBP department. He could help as a vocal team leader, as well. I think the A’s may try and sign him, too.

    12. sirrah1210
      October 25th, 2008 | 4:01 pm

      Abreu – Phillies or Mets make sense; my darkhorses are the Reds and Braves

      Giambi – A’s, although I’m sure he’s probably Cash’s plan B-minus, too

      Moose – retired (misses HoF)

      Pavano – anywhere in the NL, but I’d make a couple of plays on guys like him, Colon, and Garcia if I’m the Nats, and flip them in July

      Pettitte – Yanks

      Ponson – Japan (unless he prefers Tequila to Saki…I just think he’s burned too many bridges for his level of play)

      Pudge – Who is going to pay his price? The Marlins are likely going to blow their team up again; the Nats need a catcher but are trying to stay in the bottom five for payroll…although I wouldn’t mind their 2nd round pick if he’s a type-A. The Mets maybe? I’m gonna say that he is offered arbitration by the Yanks and accepts, only to get cut or traded in ST if Posada looks like he can handle the role.

    13. butchie22
      October 25th, 2008 | 4:44 pm

      MJ, Hillenbrand was traded for Jeremy Accardo who closed last year for Toronto and is a great young arm so that was a good move by JP. Thomas was released outrightly to avoid the option and his cancer in the clubhouse attitude. An organization that produces pitchers like Marcum , McGowan, Litsch and Halladay is not that bad. They had a great offensive team in 2006, but because Ricciardi is a crappy GM he didn’t make the adjustments. BUT an organization that spends over 200 mill a year, the most money on drafting and payroll, and is aging beyond belief could be called a very bad organization. Yes, I said it Cash Man and the Yanks are a bad organization especially relative to Boston and Tampa Bay. BTW MJ, the Yankees have a gaggle of old DH types and outfielders in the extreme. That was a result of Cash Man and Co relying on big free agent contracts and his failure to build from within.

      Once I Was, as much as I respect Theo and Co they cannot blow away the Yankees on Teix or anybody else. If the Yankees want him or anybody else with 800 mill coming in next year(from the stadium alone) a blank check will be presented. Once I was The Red Sox would have to eat Lowell’s entire salary at this point…so Teix will cost 23 plus Lowell’s 13 mill? I don’t think the Red Sox would make such an irrational move monetarily. IN addition, they would have to make a trade for my injured/troubled player for yours.You want Jose Guillen on the Red Sox? He’ll make Manny look like a model citizen! And doesn’t Lowell have a no trade clause? Feliz is at Philly for two years for 8.5 mill. Philly wants to resign Burrell, not add an injured player that was last year’s news. Boston should look to move Masterson to the starting squad , sign Lowe, and get Fuentes. Their weakness was their relief pitching and they should finally say goodbye to Wakey.Theo can send me a check for my no-brainer suggestions….

      Steve good call on Pavano, I think that he either lands in Toronto(where his old Marlins pitching coach is) or in St Louis. Everybody is saying that Abreu will be on the Cubs and that would be a good fit, except that the wall is brick there! If you thought he was adverse to walls now, just wait….. Giambi still can produce a little bit and Beane is rebuilding. Giambi will “get paid’ this year. Tampa and Toronto seem more likely to get him based on his production. Don’t be surprised to see Ponson back in the middle of the year again when Burnett has a blister or he is suffering from sunburn or sensitivity from the booing. Moose might be back if they don’t get CC, AJ or Lowe. Yeah, I know about the retirement talk BUT money talks.

    14. OnceIWasAYankeeFan
      October 25th, 2008 | 7:26 pm

      You’re no-brainer suggestions aren’t terribly knowledgeable.

      Number one, no one on the Red Sox gets a no-trade, unless you are very special (Dice-K, and I am not even certain he got what he wanted, I know he got a “you can’t option me to the minors” deal; and Varitek in 2004, when they did some creative language to give him a no-trade clause before he would have earned it as a ten/five player). Lowell does not have a no-trade and while its obviously true his injury hurts his value, he is hardly someone whose contract would have to be completely eaten to move him. That person is Julio Lugo. Why wouldn’t the Phils want him? They were willing to give him four years and more money, this is only two more years and less.

      As for Teix, you bet your butt that Theo will be in on him. We can’t compete? Yeah, if the Yankees go to 8 years/25 million a year, Theo won’t follow them down that path. but 6/20? That isn’t a problem at all, and when you get right down to it, among the teams that are competing for Teix, which one came the closest to the World Series this year? Which one has won a World Series or two in the last few years?

      Believe me, if it matters to Teix, its an argument that for the first time in memory, works for the Red Sox better than it does for the Yanks. And it sets the Sox apart from the Angels, the Dodgers or anyone else that has the revenue to be in the running.

      Furthermore, its obvious that the Yankees are more concerned with Sabathia than Teixeira, and they obviously should be concerned about a guy who can only play first when they can expect a lot of elderly players having first baseman’s mitts in their lockers in the future.

      And finally, where do you come up with “injured/troubled player” swap? Theo is going to forget why he instituted “character” as a factor in trades/free agent signings? If he has to accept a couple of low-grade prospects, he’ll do it if he has Teix in the bag. There won’t be a better offensive infield in the majors than Teix/Pedroia/Lowery/Youk, and three of the four are Gold Glove or above-average defensively.

    15. January 18th, 2009 | 11:39 am

      [...] going to a team like the Dodgers if they don’t re-sign Manny. Or, maybe Abreu goes to a team like the Giants if they don’t, say, trade for Xaiver Nady or Nick [...]

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