Reason Not To Trust Ramirez & Veras?
As promised, here’s some more skinny via the Bill James Handbook 2009…
In the Relief Pitchers section, the BJH ’09 provides stats such as “Clean Outings” and “Save/Hold Percentage.”
“Clean Outings” is a game where a RP is not charged with a run (earned or not) and does not allow an inherited runner to score. On the whole, 64% of relief appearances are “Clean Outings.”
“Save/Hold Percentage” is the sum of Saves and Holds, divided by the sum of Saves, Holds, and Blown Saves.
In 2008, Mo Rivera pitched in 64 games and 51 of them were “Clean Outings.” How did some other Yankees do in this department? See the following:
Damaso Marte: 72/53
Brian Bruney: 31/22
Joba Chamberlain: 30/22
Jose Veras: 60/45
Edwar Ramirez: 55/43
In 2008, Mo Rivera had a “Save/Hold Percentage” of .98. How did some other Yankees do in this department? See the following:
Damaso Marte: .94
Brian Bruney: .93
Joba Chamberlain: .95
Jose Veras: .83
Edwar Ramirez: .67
Looking at this, it’s safe to say, Jose Veras and Edwar Ramirez are not exactly solid bets for getting the job done out of the bullpen.
I agree with this.
However, I still would rather have Edwar than Veras. Hopefully, Veras does well enough next year to garner at least some kind of trade value, and hopefully he becomes expendable as Bruney, Robertson and Melancon take on more important roles in the pen.
Wow, you’re using save/hold percentage to rate a reliever ON HIS FIRST FULL SEASON IN THE MAJORS.
Pleasee, you can do it better.
For both these guys, command is the issue. Veras has great stuff, but is sometimes wild and also get to much of the plate. Edwar has the great change up, but not good enough secondary pitches to survive without great command.
I don’t know if Veras will ever get his command. There may be a chance with Edwar.
anulxc, um, didn’t these guys pitch some in 2007 too?
Not saying you’re right or wrong in this post. But I do want to point out that you made a pre-emptive slam on Cashman for potentially not picking up Marte’s option because you don’t think Bruney has proven anything or that he can be trusted. Yet, you seem to be using these metrics to show why Edwar/Veras can’t do the job. If these metrics are valuable enough to you to believe that Edwar/Veras can’t do the job, then do you change your mind on Bruney’s ability to do the job?
anulxc, um, didn’t these guys pitch some in 2007 too?
———–
Yes, it should also be noted that Veras had an elbow injury in 2007, and Ramirez wasn’t used consistently.
Anyway, given the year to year flakiness of relievers in general, I’m not too concerned about Veras & Edwar. If they fail, two more relievers will be plugged into their spots.
FWIW, it would not shock me to see Robertson and Melancon just shove Veras and Ramirez out of the way, in terms of the Yankees pen pecking order, in 2009. That said, I do wonder if it makes sense to try and trade Veras and Ramirez, NOW, while their value *may* be at a peak – and with teams always looking for cheap and somewhat effective arms for their bullpen.
~~~Not saying you’re right or wrong in this post. But I do want to point out that you made a pre-emptive slam on Cashman for potentially not picking up Marte’s option because you don’t think Bruney has proven anything or that he can be trusted. Yet, you seem to be using these metrics to show why Edwar/Veras can’t do the job. If these metrics are valuable enough to you to believe that Edwar/Veras can’t do the job, then do you change your mind on Bruney’s ability to do the job?.~~
Health. Bruney, in his short career, has already had two major injuries. That’s a red flag for me. Also, prior to this past season, conditioning has been an issue for him as well.
FWIW, I’ll do Bruney tomorrow in my 2009 forecast series – as there’s some good debate about him.
So you have no reservations about Bruney’s talent, only his health?
Not to confuse topics here, but a $6M option on Damaso Marte seems like a pretty big insurance premium on the health of Brian Bruney.
FWIW, I think Bruney’s good enough to do the job.
You want Bruney to be your late inning left-handed specialist over Marte – even ‘tho he’s not a lefty?
You want Bruney to be your late inning left-handed specialist over Marte – even ‘tho he’s not a lefty?
———————–
Let’s differentiate the points here. If you view Marte as a LOOGY, then I don’t want any $6M LOOGY’s, even if the Yanks can afford to pay that.
And if your view is that Marte’s not a LOOGY but as a “trusted” reliever (something your previous post seemed to imply), then not only do I think Bruney can do the job, but I don’t think Marte is worth $6M in that role either.
I don’t want Bruney to be my LOOGY. I want the Yanks to find one that can do that job at less than $6M. Marte is decent and has value to the Yanks. But I don’t think he’s a sensible signing at the price you want to keep him around at.
~~~Let’s differentiate the points here. If you view Marte as a LOOGY, then I don’t want any $6M LOOGY’s, even if the Yanks can afford to pay that.~~~
Dude! Now, you’re just being plain inconsistent! Are you NOT always THE GUY who says that salary and team payroll shouldn’t matter when judging a player and or team – and that it’s all about performance and that we should not base expectations and the like on salary and payroll?
I could swear that was you – on more than one occasion I may add…
And, NOW, you’re worried about Marte being overpaid? Really?
FWIW, Marte really isn’t a LOOGY, and his usage patterns show that.
Dude! Now, you’re just being plain inconsistent!
——————–
Basing expectations on salary seems silly to me. I mean, what is $25M/worth of production anyway? 30 HR? 40 HR? 50 HR? Is it the old “I’ll know it when I see it” thing like pornography?
People that bash A-Rod for his “down” years always seem to forget that he’s still the best player on the team and one of the handful of best players in the game. He gets paid what he gets paid and as long as he’s leading the Yanks in the categories he’s supposed to be leading in, I’ve got no problems with what A-Rod makes. Don’t forget, he gets paid not only to produce but to sell the brand and to put butts in seats.
So, now that you’ve managed to turn this around on me, I’ll say that $6M for Marte makes no sense. There’s just as good a chance that he’ll suck next year as there is that he’ll be the second-best reliever on the team after Mo. Relievers are famously inconsistent from year to year. So to pay $6M for what is essentially a fungible asset seems ridiculous to me.
I’m happy to pay whatever the going rate is for exceptional performance. That means I’ll swallow the price for a Sabathia or a Teixeira or an A-Rod or a Jeter. If Marte were a stud, sure, I’d pay the man his money. I don’t consider Marte in that class of player so I don’t justify the expenditure.
It’s not that I’m worried about Marte being overpaid. It’s just that I don’t think profligate spending on non-stars — especially bullpen non-stars — makes a lot of sense.
So, you would rather have Billy Traber facing Big Papi with the game on the line – rather than a $6 million Marte?
So, you would rather have Billy Traber facing Big Papi with the game on the line – rather than a $6 million Marte?
—————–
The old “either/or” trick. Who said it’s ONLY Billy Traber OR a $6M Marte?
As an aside, here’s why your pre-emptive Damaso Marte Cash-bash on Sunday was so silly: you rule out the chance that Marte is retained for less than $6M/year. It’s possible that the Yanks sign him to a two year deal instead of picking up his 2009 option. And I’d be fine with that.
So, you would rather have Billy Traber facing Big Papi with the game on the line – rather than a $6 million Marte?
—————
If the game’s on the line, I’d rather Rivera be in there…