Some stats via the Complete Baseball Encyclopedia…that explain what happened to the Yankees offense in 2008…
First, here are the A.L. team leaders in RCAA from 2007:
Rk Team RCAA 1 Yankees 160 2 Tigers 88 3 Rays 62 4 Red Sox 61 5 A's 36 6 Mariners 14 7 Indians -20 8 Rangers -21 9 Blue Jays -23 10 Angels -25 11 Twins -30 12 Orioles -81 13 White Sox -149 14 Royals -152
And, here they are in 2008:
Rk Team RCAA 1 Red Sox 103 2 Rangers 95 3 Rays 37 4 Twins 24 5 Indians 23 6 Orioles 18 7 Yankees 16 8 Tigers 13 9 White Sox -27 10 Blue Jays -42 11 Angels -43 12 Royals -65 13 Mariners -80 14 A's -109
So, how did the Yankees go from 160 RCAA in 2008 to 16 RCAA in 2008? That’s a drop of 144 RCAA.
Looking at some individual Yankees RCAA marks from 2007 and 2008 tells the story. Here are the differences in RCAA, between 2007 and 2008, for nine Yankees players (who were on both teams):
Jason Giambi 20 Johnny Damon 20 Melky Cabrera -6 Hideki Matsui -15 Derek Jeter -21 Jose Molina -22 Robinson Cano -29 Alex Rodriguez -38 Jorge Posada -48
Clearly, Giambi and Damon were much better in 2008 than they were in 2007 – in terms of RCAA. And, you could say that their improvement offset the drops in production for Melky Cabrera, Hideki Matsui and Jose Molina.
However, that leaves Derek Jeter, Robinson Cano, Alex Rodriguez and Jorge Posada. Combined, these four had a negative swing of 136 in RCAA from 2007 to 2008. There’s the reason behind your team drop of 144 RCAA.
If someone wants to know why the Yankees offense disappeared in 2008, the answer is simple:
Jorge Posada got hurt. Alex Rodriguez, while very good in 2008, did not come near approaching his production from 2007. Robinson Cano was terrible. And, Derek Jeter hit more like a league average batter than a superstar.
And, guess what? If Posada cannot comeback in 2009, and if Cano continues to stink in 2009, and if A-Rod does not hit like a monster in 2009, and if Jeter repeats his 2008 in 2009, then the 2009 Yankees will be just as offensively challenged in 2009 as they were in 2008.
9 Responses to “What Happened To The Yankees Offense In 2008?”
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November 16th, 2008 at 12:01 pm
While this is sort of fair, it doesn’t really take into account their 2007 year. Sure, Arod might have dropped by 38 RCAA, but only because I’m sure that two years ago he had one of the highest RCAA ever. We can’t expect that monster season from ARod every time out. I think that, realistically, we should *expect* him to have a season somewhere in between his 2007 and 2008 seasons. A-Rod had the 2nd highest drop off but unlike Jeter, Cano and Melky, it’s NOT because he had a terrible year this year. It’s just because he wasn’t as historically good as he was two years ago, something that we cannot expect from him. For Cano, Jeter, (and maybe Melky) all we have to hope for is that they are above league average.
A-Rod still won the Silver Slugger and still had a great year stats wise. You can try to look for A-Rod to blame, but then you have to recognize that to match his RCAA, he would’ve had to have another near-record breaking year. Cano needs to climb back to league average and Jeter needs to prove that he is better than league average. We don’t have to worry about that with A Rod.
November 16th, 2008 at 2:24 pm
FWIW, I don’t blame A-Rod for not having 80-something RCAA in 2008. The 40+ that he had were very, very, good. More so, I would blame the Yankees for not realizing that much of the 160 RCAA that they had in 2007 was due to A-Rod’s monster season…and not preparing better for his return to human levels by having better pitching to offset what should have been an expected drop in offense.
November 16th, 2008 at 2:39 pm
preparing better for his return to human levels by having better pitching to offset what should have been an expected drop in offense.
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I saw plenty of games that if the yankees scored 5 or sometimes even 4 runs they would have had wins. The pitching wasn’t bad considering the hand we had and its only going to be better this year. They need another professional hitter. Trading for nick swisher is not the answer here, they need a big bat (not abreu)
November 16th, 2008 at 3:12 pm
and not preparing better for his return to human levels by having better pitching to offset what should have been an expected drop in offense.
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The problem wasn’t so much Rodriguez, as Matsui, Posada, Melky, Jeter, & Cano. Especially Melky & Cano. I think I pointed out sometime last season that the Yanks were getting a negative RCAA from 3-4 spots in their lineup (C, SS, 2b, CF)
Rodriguez had a season for the ages in 07, and was expected to decline (as was Posada), but bounceback years by Giambi & Damon were supposed to mitigate it.
November 16th, 2008 at 4:05 pm
Raf – If one of the keys to the Yankees being a “900 run offense” was a decent season from Melky Cabrera, then the team had their head up their fanny when they came up with that plan…
November 16th, 2008 at 6:20 pm
Let’s stop oveanalyzing this.
Melky’s bad year was not a key reason for the offensive decline. Nobody was counting on him for a big season. They hoped he would improve some, and he didn’t, but nobody was making big predictions for him after his up and down 2007.
The reasons for the team losing 180 runs of offense from 2007 to 2008, are, in order of importance:
1) Jorge Posada’a career year in 2007 being replaced not by an average Posada year in 2008, but by an average Jose Molina year. This alone has to be somewhere around 60-70 runs of the dropoff.
2) A-Rod’s dropoff from a monster season to a slightly below average season, for him, exacerbated by his subpar performance in key spots. This was probably about 40-50 runs.
3) Cano’s collapse from being a good plus hitter to being an awful hitter for the 1st month, and an average hitter the rest of the year. This was probably about 30 runs of the drop.
The three of them account for about 75-80% of the difference between the two teams. The 1st two were predictable, the 3rd wasn’t.
All 3 were essentially unavoidable, unless the Yanks had the foresight, and the material, to trade for Brian McCann to back up Jorge Posada at catcher in the off-season.
Jeter’s year, probably related to a hidden injury, would be the next most important factor. Matsui’s injury was also important, as he was actually off to an improved start before he got hurt, and was ineffective when he forced his comeback.
November 16th, 2008 at 7:53 pm
Great post Evan3457
November 16th, 2008 at 10:53 pm
Don’t think anyone was counting on Melky to have a superstar year, but I think the Yanks were looking (hoping?) he’d be around league average. I don’t think anyone was expecting him to be as bad as he was
But I’m sure the Yanks were counting more on Matsui, Posada, Jeter & Cano than Melky.
Point stands that if you’re getting a negative RCAA from 4 starters in your lineup, you’re not going to score many runs.
November 17th, 2008 at 1:45 pm
Let’s face it…the Yankees are getting older and older. A lot of these players are no longer in their prime. Some like Melky and to a lesser extent Cano are coming back to earth. This must be the Yankees’ greatest adjustment in the off season with the loss of Giambi AND Abreu. Quite honestly, all this talk about CC, AJ and Lowe really worries me BECAUSE they were down in runs scored last year and need to shore up the offense. If the Yanks don’t get Teix, I can see this team fighting for a 4th place spot again. Swisher is not the answer and the Yanks are getting back Posada BUT a year older Posada in his late 30s and that’s not a good thing.