November 2008 Survey Question #3
Posted by Steve Lombardi on November 17th, 2008 · Comments (13)
Please consider taking the following poll:
Which would YOU want to see happen this off-season with respect to the Yankees offensive plan?
Thanks in advance. And, please feel free to add comments on your opinion in the comments section below.
Just an interesting stat for you (from fangraphs.com):
Bobby Abreu swings at pitches out of the zone only 16.6% of the time which is 8th best in the majors while Nady swings at pitches out of the zone 31.3% of the time which is 26th worst in the majors for qualifying players. Nady’s 31.3% is worse than Cano’s 30.7% for comparison.
Sure, Abreu’s range isn’t fantastic (although his arm is good) but Abreu is really going to be missed offensively if he’s not brought back…
yankees27th, if the Yankees hadn’t brought on Swisher, I was concerned at the fact that there would be many impatient batters in the Yankees’ lineup without Abreu.
But Swisher took 4.5 pitchers per at bat on average last season, which is the highest since ESPN started keeping track of that statistic. Abreu won’t be missed nearly as much as some people seem to think.
I didn’t know that about Swisher, but Swisher’s discipline isn’t an excuse for the rest of the team to swing away at pitches out of the zone.
Abreu won’t be missed nearly as much as some people seem to think.
—————————
I liked the Swisher deal because the Yanks got something for nothing. But Swisher isn’t Abreu, even if they are both patient at the plate. I don’t have access to Lee’s RCAA stats but I can’t imagine that Bobby doesn’t have Swish beat.
Defensive suckitude notwithstanding, I think the Yanks will miss Abreu’s bat. I don’t think the Yanks should give Abreu a three-year deal but I think they’d be foolish to just sever ties with him without at least staying in the game. I’d rather overpay and give him two years than let him walk.
Think about it this way: Matsui and Damon are as good as gone after this season. Why not sign Abreu to an over-market, two year deal? The money you’re overpaying for Abreu in 2009 gets mitigated by the $26M coming off the books when Damon/Matsui are gone.
The reason is because Abreu is a DH. You simply cannot play him in the field and expect him to be a well-above average player.
Also, the Yankees would have to give him something like $35 million for two years. Abreu is getting $45 million, 3 years from somebody. It would be incredibly foolish for the Yankees to meet his demands, especially since they have nowhere to play him. The draft picks and financial flexibility you gain by letting him go is more valuable than whatever you think he could produce over Nady/Swisher (which, really, isn’t much, if at all).
The important difference between Swisher and Abreu at the plate is that if he doesn’t walk or hit a homer, there’s a pretty good chance Swisher takes a right turn and goes back to the bench, while Abreu is a consistent .300 hitter, in addition to having the same patience and power.
As a Sox fan I look forward to facing Swisher in a clutch situation and not Abreu. I don’t know how many times I’ve watched Bobby take a few pitches, foul a few off, then lash a single into left to plate a run. With Swisher, I’ll just hope that the pitcher doesn’t make a mistake where he can hurt you. Otherwise, there’s much less to fear.
I liked the Swisher deal because the Yanks got something for nothing. But Swisher isn’t Abreu, even if they are both patient at the plate. I don’t have access to Lee’s RCAA stats but I can’t imagine that Bobby doesn’t have Swish beat.
=============
lol pretty much what i said in the cooler post
Once -
The simple fact that you actually value batting average lets me know that you don’t know how to value hitters.
If Swisher hits .250/.350/.450, and Abreu hits .300/.350/.450 (pretty reasonable expectations), then Swisher is the more valuable hitter.
And this doesn’t even take into account baserunning (which Abreu has become horrendous at) and defense (likewise). Or contractual obligations, or upside.
It’s a no-brainer.
.250/.350/.450 is better than .300/.350/.450?
Seriously, you want to assert that with the same slugging and on base numbers, a .250 hitter is more valuable than a .300 hitter?
this has nothing to do with baserunning or defense, its about what they do with a bat in their hands – and you believe a guy who hits 50 points lower, with other numbers equal, is better.
Wow. Just wow.
i believe what Andrew is trying to say is that swish’s iso power would be better, and he would be working more walks.
Nick Swisher has one season of 100 walks. Abreu did it for like 9 years in a row.
Abreu averages 104 walks per 162 games.
Swisher, 91.
More walks, higher BA = better OBP, which Abreu clearly has: .405 to .354 lifetime.
Tell me again why a higher BA signifies a less valuable hitter?
Corey got it right. A .250 hitter with the same OPS as a .300 hitter has more walks than singles, but also more extra-base hits. Walks are less valuable than singles, but extra-base hits are much more valuable than singles. Thus, a .250 hitter can be better than a .300 hitter, and therefore batting average is, by far, the most overrated and overused statistic in baseball.
Please try to remember that Abreu would be extremely hard-pressed to post a .400 OBP. Abreu will be 35, and has shown unmistakable signs of decline. His ability to take a walk has clearly declined, and will continue to decline. He hasn’t taken 100 walks since 2006. His power has also settled around a .170 IsoP, which is very solid, but not anything great. Using career averages to tell me a 35-year old player will undoubtedly be better than a 28-year old player is disingenuous, at best.
Swisher is going to be 28 years old in 2009. Absolutely no one should be surprised if he manages to post his 2006 numbers again, especially with the protection of the Yankees’ lineup. Offensively, he can replace Abreu. Defensively, he will far, far surpass Abreu. His upside is also much higher than Abreu’s, his contract is cheaper, he’s under control through 2011 (with a $10 million option for 2012). Signing Abreu for 3 years, $45 million would be a terrible mistake for the Yankees to make.
I can’t believe we’re actually trying to convince ourselves that a bad defensive RF that still produces at the plate (Abreu) is worth dumping in favor of a mediocre defensive RF that is equally mediocre at the plate (Nady).
If the Yanks had better options in the OF then, sure, let Abreu go. But a Damon-Cabrera-Nady OF makes me want to puke.