The Hughes Wait
Phil Hughes’ AFL season is now in the books. Let’s compare his stats from out west versus what he’s done, career-wise, at every pro-level to date:
Level IP ERA WHIP 2008 AFL 30.0 3.00 1.16 Career Rk Lge 5.0 0.00 0.80 Career A-Ball 75.3 1.80 0.89 Career High-A 49.6 2.18 0.71 Career AA 123.0 2.20 0.91 Career AAA 57.6 4.06 1.16 Career MLB 106.6 5.15 1.42
To me, Hughes’ 2008 AFL numbers are right around what he’s done at the Double-A/Triple-A level, so far, in his minor league career. And, this makes sense – considering that the AFL talent level, this year, overall, was guys who were very talented Double-A players who could have been pressed into Triple-A duty.
So, what we saw from Hughes in the AFL was no different than what we’ve seen from Hughes pitching at AA/AAA.
And, the question for Hughes still remains: When will Phil be able to translate that minor league success into something at the major league level that comes close to it? Will it be this season? The next? The one after that? Ever?
Anyone who says they know, for sure, is only guessing. In the end, with this one, the proof will be in the pudding – and not in some Arizona Fall League stats.
Hughes is not going anywhere with just two good [not great] pitches [ FB and Curveball]… i know they shut down his slider in the minors… i donno if he will ever go back to it… or how good is his changeup.. maybe he needs to take a few more mile off his changeup..
Anyone who says they know, for sure, is only guessing.
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No one’s ever said they know for sure that Hughes will be the real deal in the big leagues. All anyone’s ever said is that he’s too talented to give up on and that there needs to be a level of patience with him (as with all young players) that most Yankee fans seem to be unable to cope with.
The fact that he’s pitched well in the minors should not be a mark against him that he can’t succeed in the big leagues. It’s merely proof that there is some serious talent there. Patience and coaching should be able to bring it to the forefront and coax it out of him at the ML-level as well. It’s worth noting that only Yankee fans have truly soured on Hughes. Scouts and prospect-watchers like Baseball America have not. I find that telling.
~~No one’s ever said they know for sure that Hughes will be the real deal in the big leagues. ~~
Really? I see it at other blogs, and in comments here, from time to time.
~~The fact that he’s pitched well in the minors should not be a mark against him that he can’t succeed in the big leagues. ~~
This is what I want to know:
Where are the “Small Sample Size!” police every time some Yankees fanboy wants to have party time in their pants over the numbers that Hughes has posted in the minor leagues?
Really? I see it at other blogs, and in comments here, from time to time.
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First, do other blogs really matter?!
Second, you have to take everything with a grain of salt. I agree that there are definitely some folks out there that 100% believe that Hughes will end up in the Hall of Fame but you can’t let some of those folks make you believe that EVERYONE thinks that way. I believe the general consensus among knowledgeable Yankee fans is that there’s no such thing as a sure thing but that Hughes has the talent to be a great pitcher and it’s just a matter of being patient. If it doesn’t work out, then it doesn’t work out. But to prejudge him a failure is irrational and hasty.
Where are the “Small Sample Size!” police every time some Yankees fanboy wants to have party time in their pants over the numbers that Hughes has posted in the minor leagues?
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Is 340.6 really that small a sample size for the minors?
~~Is 340.6 really that small a sample size for the minors?~~
If a guy was injury free and taking a regular turn, that would probably amount to 2 and a 1/2 years work.
And, 2.5 years in the minors is not a very long track record to base a projection on, at least a good one, is it?
And, 2.5 years in the minors is not a very long track record to base a projection on, at least a good one, is it?
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Depends. You look at the results, and then you look at others who have performed similarly.
From the looks of it, Hughes will spend some time @ AAA next season, and he’ll get a call sometime next season if he does well. And if he does well @ SWB next season, there will be little left for him to prove there, and he’ll have to take his lumps in MLB, whether it’s with the Yanks or some other organization.
And, 2.5 years in the minors is not a very long track record to base a projection on, at least a good one, is it?
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We’re talking sample size here, not MiLB service time. 340.6 MiLB innings doesn’t seem like an insignificant amount.