Post-2003 Yanks Starting Pitching Scorecard
Playing around with Baseball-Reference.com’s Play Index Pitching Season Finder, I asked it to show me, since 2004, how many Yankees pitchers have posted a season where they appeared in at least 28 games, with 90% of them being starts, and had an ERA+ of 110 (or greater) on the season. Here’s that list:
From To Ages Seasons +-----------------+----+----+-----+-------+ Chien-Ming Wang 2006 2007 26-27 2 Mike Mussina 2006 2008 37-39 2 Andy Pettitte 2007 2007 35-35 1 Randy Johnson 2005 2005 41-41 1 Seasons/Careers found: 4.
That’s it. In the last five years the Yankees have only had four starting pitchers to have “very good” seasons – and, in total, these four have authored six such seasons.
Think about that for a moment. Assume that, in a perfect world, you had 5 starting pitchers in your rotation and each of them never missed a turn. That means you would have 5 “starting seasons” per year. Now, multiply that by five seasons (from 2004 through 2008). That’s twenty-five.
So, in this department, the Yankees have gone 6 for 25 – or a percentage of 24%. Sounds bad, right?
Well, check out the Boston Red Sox, using the same filters, since 2004:
From To Ages Seasons +-----------------+----+----+-----+-------+ Curt Schilling 2004 2006 37-39 2 Tim Wakefield 2008 2008 41-41 1 Daisuke Matsuzaka 2008 2008 27-27 1 Jon Lester 2008 2008 24-24 1 Josh Beckett 2007 2007 27-27 1 Pedro Martinez 2004 2004 32-32 1 Bronson Arroyo 2004 2004 27-27 1
Seasons/Careers found: 7.
Boston, over this time, has posted 8 such seasons (from 7 pitchers). So, the Red Sox are at 32%.This makes me think that we should lower that ERA+ bar. What happens if we move it to an ERA+ of 100 (or greater)? Here are those results:
From To Ages Seasons +-----------------+----+----+-----+-------+ Chien-Ming Wang 2006 2007 26-27 2 Mike Mussina 2006 2008 37-39 2 Andy Pettitte 2007 2007 35-35 1 Jaret Wright 2006 2006 30-30 1 Randy Johnson 2005 2005 41-41 1 Seasons/Careers found: 5.
From To Ages Seasons +-----------------+----+----+-----+-------+ Tim Wakefield 2004 2008 37-41 4 Daisuke Matsuzaka 2007 2008 26-27 2 Curt Schilling 2004 2006 37-39 2 Bronson Arroyo 2004 2005 27-28 2 Jon Lester 2008 2008 24-24 1 Josh Beckett 2007 2007 27-27 1 David Wells 2005 2005 42-42 1 Pedro Martinez 2004 2004 32-32 1 Seasons/Careers found: 8.
Well, there it is, huh? Since 2004, the Yankees have had just 7 “solid” seasons from a starting pitcher (coming from 5 starters) whereas the Red Sox have had 14 “solid” seasons from a starting pitcher (coming from 8 starters).
This puts the Yankees at 28% for a success rate whereas the Red Sox have a success rate of 56% over the same period of time. Do the math on that one – it’s double.
So, if you want to know why the Red Sox have two World Series rings since 2004 and the Yankees have zero, part of the reason is the fact that Boston (and their front office) has lapped the Yankees (and their front office) in terms of identifying and retaining quality starting pitching.
And, unless the Yankees organization can close this front office efficiency gap with respect to filling out a starting rotation, don’t expect New York to catch up to Boston, any time soon, in that ring tally board.
And, unless the Yankees organization can close this front office efficiency gap with respect to filling out a starting rotation, don’t expect New York to catch up to Boston, any time soon, in that ring tally board.
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I doubt that to be the case, especially since the Sox didn’t win rings in 05, 06, and 08.
Then again, if we’re counting the rings, I suspect the Sox have a ways to go to catch up…
And yet, I wouldn’t want any one of those four (!) era+ 100+ from Wakefield. That guy is a bum and likely to get hit hard in the playoffs. I mean, since we’re talking about trying to get to the WS. Wakefield is a bum and Becket only has 1 such season. So maybe we shouldn’t even go after CC, right Steve? Let’s just try to find as many Wakefields as we can, because I guess he is a better pitcher than Becket or anyone else the team’s can throw out there.
And also, if you look at the 2005 season, Chacon, Small, and Wang combined for 38 starts at an ERA+ well over 100. And it’s nice that your arbitrary cut-off of “28 Starts” doesn’t include Jon Lieber’s 2004 when he started 27 games and had an ERA+ over 100. Or that K Brown pitched 22 games with an ERA+ over 100. (And El Duque threw 15 good games that year, too.)
The point is, even if we didn’t have someone throwing at least 28 starts, the Yankees did get decent production from fill-ins such as Chacon, Small, Lieber, Duque, even Brown. Of course, I’m not saying we should try to sign people like this, but if we are rating Cashman and the Yankees, what is important is that they DID produce. These players and their good ERA+’s did help us get to the playoffs. Even if Steve wants to use arbitrary cut-offs to prove how important Tim Wakefield is, the Yankees got their pitching production too.
Jaret Wright? Really?
good pt new guy
newguy – since 2004, the Red Sox have 281 RSAA and the Yankees have -8 RSAA. That’s a difference of 289 RSAA over the five years, in favor of the Red Sox.
So, if you want to look at “combined efforts” instead of “individual efforts,” there it is.
By far, the Red Sox have had better pitching than the Yankees since 2004 – any way you slice it.
By far, the Red Sox have had better pitching than the Yankees since 2004 – any way you slice it.
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And pre 2004?
Anyway, since 2004, the Red Sox have finished ahead of the Yanks twice; 07 & 08, which tells me over the span of a season this study doesn’t mean much.
By far, the Red Sox have had better pitching than the Yankees since 2004 – any way you slice it.
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Oh I don’t doubt that. Unfortunately, that is why they have won 2 WS recently and we missed the playoffs for the first time since 1918 or something like that. That said, I do question the value of something has Tim Wakefield as the most valuable pitcher between the two teams over the last 5 years.
Pre-2004?
IIRC, Cashman didn’t have total control of the team at that time, did he?
~~I do question the value of something has Tim Wakefield as the most valuable pitcher between the two teams over the last 5 years.~~
Four seasons, hardly missing a turn, and being at least league average. What’s wrong with that? How many Yankees have done it four times in the last 5 years? Zero.
IIRC, Cashman didn’t have total control of the team at that time, did he?
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Doesn’t answer the question.
If the Sox have had better pitching than the Yanks before 2004, it doesn’t explain why they haven’t won before 2004.
Four seasons, hardly missing a turn, and being at least league average.
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One other thing, wouldn’t it be 5 seasons for Wakefield?
They always lacked for pitching, since well before 2004. Its what Theo attempted to fix, and he has clearly done a better job of it than Cashman has.
As to Wake, hey, I don’t relish seeing him in the post-season but as a guy who pretty reliably eats innings at a better than league average ERA, there has to be some value there.
They always lacked for pitching, since well before 2004. Its what Theo attempted to fix, and he has clearly done a better job of it than Cashman has.
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And that I will not argue. If you want to say that’s the reason the Sox have won, then I have to dispute that, given 05, 06 & 08.
And it still doesn’t change the fact that the bullpen blew leads in games 4 & 5 in the 04 ALCS.
How many times has C.C. performed to these numbers in his career?
How many times has Garland and Meche performed to these numbers (I chose those two pitchers because you’d said you’d be happy with them in this thread: http://waswatching.com/2008/12/01/cashman-balls-in-ccs-court/ )
And it still doesn’t change the fact that the bullpen blew leads in games 4 & 5 in the 04 ALCS.
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Also doesn’t change the fact that the offense was the reason the Yanks missed the playoffs.
sanair – since 2004:
C.C. Sabathia 5 times
Jon Garland 3 times
Gil Meche 2 times
Note: Meche has done it as much as any Yankee and Garland has done it more than any Yankee…since 2004.
~~One other thing, wouldn’t it be 5 seasons for Wakefield?~~
The query results gave him 4.
The query results gave him 4.
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Yes, that is correct, I read his stats wrong
It’s pretty obvious our pitching hasn’t been where we’ve wanted it to be over the past few year, but how many truly great pitchers have been available since then. Not many, not as a free agents. Would you have given up hanley for beckett. I don’t think i would have. and i don’t believe dice-k as 100+ guy…too many walks, the league will catch up to him. Our youth will get us there. we just need to be patient. we shouldn’t be signing a ton of long pitch contracts, just one. Our young guys need to grow up. I think It will change in the next few years.