With Mike Cameron You Get…
I thought this might be a good time to look at Mike Cameron.
How is his bat? Here are the stats via the Complete Baseball Encyclopedia:
YEAR AGE RCAA OBA SLG OWP RC/G G 1995 22 -3 .244 .316 .203 2.38 28 1996 23 -2 .167 .091 .000 0.00 11 1997 24 9 .356 .433 .567 5.80 116 1998 25 -25 .285 .336 .283 3.15 141 1999 26 11 .357 .469 .546 6.20 146 2000 27 12 .365 .438 .558 5.80 155 2001 28 23 .353 .480 .615 6.12 150 2002 29 13 .340 .442 .572 5.34 158 2003 30 3 .344 .431 .516 5.05 147 2004 31 2 .319 .479 .512 5.35 140 2005 32 9 .342 .477 .590 6.05 76 2006 33 20 .355 .482 .601 6.21 141 2007 34 5 .328 .431 .530 4.96 151 2008 35 8 .331 .477 .553 5.65 120
As you can see, sans what were probably two fluky seasons in 2001 and 2006, Cameron is just a tick better than a league average batter (most seasons). Think: 8 RCAA and an OWP around .550 in terms of a reasonable expectation from him offensively. Now, that’s not terrible. It’s sort of like a modern-day Chris Chambliss type of season.
How is his baserunning? In the last six seasons, Cameron has attempted 145 stolen bases and was successful 77% of the time. Again, that’s not terrible. In the past, it’s been said that 75% is the line for “Go/No Go” in terms of allowing guys to steal. So, here, Cameron is right on the line.
Further, in the Bill James Baseball Handbook 2009, they look at a player’s base running in terms of going first to third, second to home, first to home, hitting into DPs, steals, caught stealing, etc., and give players a “net gain” score in terms of their work on the bases. Willy Taveras was +70 in 2008 here. And, Ichiro was +56. On the flip-side, Dioner Navarro was -39 in 2008. And, Magglio Ordonez was -35.
How did Mike Cameron do? In 2008 he scored a +5. (For the record, Melky Cabrera was +4 in 2008.) So, again, in terms of running the bases, Cameron is not terrible – but, he’s pretty much “just OK.”
Lastly, how is Mike Cameron’s fielding? In the Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2009, they give fielders “grades” which are evenly distributed between “A” and “F” based on Revised Zone Ratings (RZR) and Plays Made Out of Zone (OOZ). In 2008, Mike Cameron’s outfield play earned him a “grade” of “C.” (For a few points of comparison, last season, Shane Victorino earned an “A,” Melky Cabrera earned a “C,” Carlos Gomez earned an “A,” Grady Sizemore earned an “A,” Coco Crisp earned an “F-,” and Carlos Beltran earned an “A.”)
So, that notion that Mike Cameron is a Gold Glover in center is a myth. Need more proof?
In the Fielding Bible +/- system, last season, Mike Cameron came in at +8. That’s not terrible. But, it’s not élite. Further, in 2007, Cameron’s +/- was less than +4; and, in 2006 it was +15. To be a true, legit, off-the-charts defender in CF, you would want to see something in the area of +20 (or greater).
Again, much like his batting and running, Mike Cameron is not terrible in center, defensively. But, he’s close to being just above average as opposed to being stellar with the leather.
Therefore, in the end, with Mike Cameron you get someone whose all-around game is somewhat around average, maybe a tick better – and certainly not terrible – but he’s not (in any phase of the game) a great player.
If you need a center fielder for 2009, you could do worse than Mike Cameron. But, then again, there’s always the chance that you could do better too…
Wow. Mike Cameron is slightly above average in every single way.
Although I am upset that Gardner won’t be given a chance if this goes through, the fact that the Brewers will likely be paying a portion of his deal makes this better; I guess it kind of depends on the pitching prospect added.
If this goes through, every single outfielder and DH will be a free agent next year. Damon, Nady, Matsui, and Cameron.
I think it would be worth it to invest in a free agent replacement now and try to trade one of them now (Matsui is #1) and get Dunn on the cheap.
Damon-Jeter-ARod-Dunn-Posada-Cameron-Swisher-Nady-Cano is pretty lethal.
you can only sign so many players while lowering your payroll..
get Dunn on the cheap.
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I agree with that. The Yankees need some serious pop in the lineup. A 3-4-5 of Nady, Arod, Posada (or throw Cano or Swisher in if you want) is no good. Dunn adds amazing power, great obp, at a not terrible price.
Also, Steve. Your analysis was good, but made no specific mention to the Yankees at all. I know you love Gardner, so I’m wondering what you think about Cameron. Is he really much better than Melky? Than Gardner? Or do you not want this trade to come to fruition?
But, then again, there’s always the chance that you could do better too…
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Really? How do you figure? Who do you trade for and who do you have to trade away?
At this point, Mike Cameron really does seem to be the best the Yankees can do, and if all they have to give up is the massive black hole of suck that is Melky Cabrera (I’ll always love you Melky!) then all the better.
A cheaper and maybe more productive option may have been Marlon Byrd:
2007: .307/.355/.459/113 OPS+
2008: .298/.380/.462/123 OPS+
Steve how does Byrd’s defense in CF compare to Cameron’s? I’m thinking it’s probably worse but just curious what the exact numbers are. Thanks.
A cheaper and maybe more productive option may have been Marlon Byrd
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I know very little about Marlon Byrd so I am going to say this as a question: is there a reason why Byrd has never played more than 135 games in a season or had a season with more than 495 AB’s (2003)? Do his teams consider him a part-time player or is he just always hurt?
In either case, I think my questions give me pause about adding him. He’s either productive but chronically injured or he’s never been viewed as much more than a fringy starter.
I know very little about Marlon Byrd so I am going to say this as a question: is there a reason why Byrd has never played more than 135 games in a season or had a season with more than 495 AB’s (2003)? Do his teams consider him a part-time player or is he just always hurt?
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I think it’s more because teams gave up on him after he was such a disappointment not living up to all the hype he got as a major prospect. So teams have the perception that he shouldn’t be out there every day, but maybe after the last two years he deserves to be. I could be wrong about that too, but also I don’t think you’d have to play him every day. Damon, Swisher, and whoever the 4th OF is(Melky, Gardner) could all start in CF every so often. I think when Byrd plays he would be productive though.
Antone, is Byrd a free agent or would the Yanks have to get him in a trade?
I’m not going to trash the Cameron deal, but with Steve’s breakdown it’s obvious that Cameron is an average to slightly-below average cf. Chances are the combination of Melky/Gardner would also be a below average option in center, maybe worst, maybe better…we just don’t know for sure. I guess we know what we’re getting with Cam so I understand the move.
I believe a trade, but rumor is that he is available. He made $1.8 mil last year and it says it was a one year deal, but he’s not listed as a free agent, so I’m kind of confused as to what is going on with him contract wise. I know he has been named as CF option who is available in a trade. I’m still wary of his defense in CF and I have no way to get the advanced data that Steve is using.
Steve’s breakdown it’s obvious that Cameron is an average to slightly-below average cf
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Actually, I believe Steve said “[t]herefore, in the end, with Mike Cameron you get someone whose all-around game is somewhat around average, maybe a tick better.”
This move is a positive one because Gardner/Melky were two fringy 4th OF types whereas Cameron is simply an average starter. Even if it’s a modest step upwards, that’s a step in the right direction. The Yankee OF went from absolutely awful to simply average now. That’s not a good thing but it’s better than it was when we were talking about Damon/Nady as bookends around Melky/Gardner.
I believe a trade, but rumor is that he is available. He made $1.8 mil last year and it says it was a one year deal, but he’s not listed as a free agent, so I’m kind of confused as to what is going on with him contract wise.
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It means he’s an arbitration-eligible player. Cot’s Baseball Contracts (http://tinyurl.com/63hxqr) lists him as having just a shade under 6 years of service time so he’s only under control for one more year before he’s a free agent.
I wonder what it would take for the Yanks to get him. Frankly, I don’t see why the Rangers would trade Byrd away when they already risk losing Milton Bradley from the same OF.
Well they do have Hamilton and David Murphy in the OF and I think they want to create a spot for Nelson Cruz, who raked the ball last season.
I was just looking at the Cot’s site too. Noticed that Wang and Nady are on there for 2009.
Couple things I found:
Jermaine Dye, Mike Cameron, Marcus Thames, and Marlon Byrd are all available via the trade market, for teams needing a right-handed hitting outfielder.
Sullivan wonders if swapping John Mayberry Jr. for Greg Golson gives the Rangers the outfield depth to trade Marlon Byrd (perhaps because Golson is capable of playing center field).
Definitely seems available.
I was just looking at the Cot’s site too. Noticed that Wang and Nady are on there for 2009.
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That’s true about the Rangers. Like I said, it seems like maybe the Rangers see him as more of a 4th OF type. Based on the offensive stats, I’d agree that he’s certainly hitting enough. Either way, the Cameron deal seems to be alive so I’ll live with it and say that Cashman did a good job turning a bottomed-out Melky into a 1-year stopgap at league average or slightly better.
Didn’t know that about Nady. I have a borderline irrational hatred of him in the same way Steve hates Phil Hughes. The mere sight and thought of Nady drives me insane. What a scrub he is.
I knew that about Wang. I remember last year they gave him a 1-year deal right around the time they extended Cano.
I have serious doubts about a fielding evaluation system that has Coco Crisp as “F-” based on zone factor and “plays outside of zone”. Look, we can all see that his arm is a weakness, and his bat has never maintained what he did in his last two years in Cleveland. But anyone who has watched the man play knows that his status as a major leaguer is his ability to get after ‘em in CF. His range is outstanding, and I defy anyone to claim otherwise.
But anyone who has watched the man play knows that his status as a major leaguer is his ability to get after ‘em
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That’s what legions of Jeter-lovers say too. I’m not among them, mind you. I agree that we’ve gotten to a point where you can make stats say almost anything but I would probably guess that there’s a difference between having good range and taking bad paths to the ball? I have no idea, I’m just guessing here.
To be honest, I’ve never put a ton of stock into the defensive metrics. I don’t really understand how they’re calculated so I stick to the offensive ones I understand.
I have serious doubts about a fielding evaluation system that has Coco Crisp as “F-” based on zone factor and “plays outside of zone”
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I was shocked when I saw that grade. I definitely don’t think much of defensive ratings either. They are good to look at, but I would trust my eyes more than anything. That’s why I laugh when people say Bobby Abreu is a -20 which offsets his +35 offense or something to that extent. He’s horrible out there, but come on he creates way more runs with his bat then anything he gives up defensively.
how does Byrd’s defense in CF compare to Cameron’s?
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Judging by the RZR numbers on the Hardball Times site, Byrd’s defense over the last few years seems to be comparable to Cameron’s, maybe a tick worse.
Byrd also has more flexibility, as he’s put in innings at all three outfield positions over the last few years, but the Yankees don’t really need that.
In all, they look like similar players to me. Byrd’s cheaper. Cameron’s more of a sure thing, in terms of games played. Plus we don’t know whether San Diego’s going to pick up some of Cameron’s salary or what it would take to get Byrd.
I would be happy with Byrd, but since Cameron seems like the Yankees’ choice, I’m happy with Cameron.
Didn’t know that about Nady. I have a borderline irrational hatred of him in the same way Steve hates Phil Hughes. The mere sight and thought of Nady drives me insane. What a scrub he is.
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He’s not as good as what most Yankees fan seem to think of him, but he is a productive player, so I wouldn’t call him a scrub.
2005:104 OPS+
2006:102 OPS+
2007:107 OPS+
2008:128 OPS+
You are certainly allowed to hate him though, haha
Judging by the RZR numbers on the Hardball Times site, Byrd’s defense over the last few years seems to be comparable to Cameron’s, maybe a tick worse.
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Thanks Justin!
Last year, Mike Cameron’s UZR was 9.7 (approx 10 plays more than the avg CF’er), while Byrd’s was 7.2, so yes, they were kind of similar.
Of course, by this account, Cameron was better than just above average on defense. There are so many defensive metrics floating around that you can’t really trust one. If you look at them all, and then also consider the conventional wisdom, Mike Cameron is still a slightly above average to a well above average center fielder. That’s pretty good.
What’s more, I think he remains an notch above average with his bat (compared to all hitters, not just CF’ers). At that position, Camerson is still a pretty valuable player, especially on a one-year contract.
Of course, I also would rather have Marlon Byrd, but he is cheap and still under control, so there is no way Texas would simply give him up for as little as Melky.
He’s not as good as what most Yankees fan seem to think of him, but he is a productive player, so I wouldn’t call him a scrub.
2005:104 OPS+
2006:102 OPS+
2007:107 OPS+
2008:128 OPS+
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Considering his OPS+ in NY was 105, I’d say the case has been made that he’s decidedly average and that his 144 OPS+ in Pittsburgh was fluky more than anything else.
How one year of Nady in RF vs. one year of Abreu in RF led to the decision to go with Nady was made is beyond me. Abreu’s been 114 and 120 OPS+ the past two seasons in NY.
How one year of Nady in RF vs. one year of Abreu in RF led to the decision to go with Nady was made is beyond me.
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Two words: money and defense.
If Nady kept up his performance in NY it might look less flukey but it seemed as though he had a good start after the trade and then was decidedly mediocre the rest of the way.
Put it this way, I think the Sox got the superior Pittsburgh outfielder.
Considering his OPS+ in NY was 105, I’d say the case has been made that he’s decidedly average and that his 144 OPS+ in Pittsburgh was fluky more than anything else.
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He is pretty average but at the same time he is no Juan Pierre. He will probably put up something like .260-.270/20-25 HR/70-80 RBI this season. I don’t think he’s that much better than Abreu in the OF either. He seems kind of stiff out there.
One thing I noticed about Nady is that his SLG has gone up every year of his career. That could be a good sign that he might at least be able to duplicate last season SLG wise.
Put it this way, I think the Sox got the superior Pittsburgh outfielder.
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Sure. But it didn’t cost the Yanks their Manny-equivalent either.
Two words: money and defense.
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True enough about the money. I don’t really “get” the defensive metrics so I’ll just take it on faith that Abreu is actually that bad in RF. He doesn’t look good out there but I don’t get how the drop from Abreu to Nady offensively really makes up for it either.
But, like I said before, I can’t stand Nady so I’m not the most objective person on the subject either. I just cringe when I think about this career-average dullard as a critical cog in a rapidly-decaying offense.
Given that the metrics say Abreu’s awful, my eyes say he’s awful, and his reputation is far from stellar, I think it’s pretty safe to say that he is, in fact, pretty bad.
Nady is supposed to be about average, and my eyes agree.
Whether the gap in defense makes up for the gap in offense, I’m not sure, but I do think that defense has a tendency to be undervalued sometimes. Which is to say, I’m inclined to think that, yeah, offense plus defense, Nady and Abreu are a push.
All that said, Nady is a really boring sort of guy, which is kind of disappointing, considering his awesome name.
Which is to say, I’m inclined to think that, yeah, offense plus defense, Nady and Abreu are a push.
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I really just don’t see how. I’m sure there’s some stats that says you’re right but I just don’t see how average defense in RF makes up so much ground. If we were talking about CF or SS I could see it. But in RF?
Anyway, it doesn’t matter. Whether rational or not, I choose to dislike Nady and I sincerely hope his stay in NY is a very short one. I hope he’s gone after 2009 and the Yanks don’t suffer the consequences this year for having this average pile of garbage.
…I sincerely hope his stay in NY is a very short one. I hope he’s gone after 2009…
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I agree with you there. Nady in his peak is a pretty good player. Nady in his decline is not someone you want in your starting lineup.
So I think we’re looking at, I don’t know, three years of “this average pile of garbage” at most. And hopefully fewer.
Last year, Abreu had a 120 OPS+ to Nady’s 128 OPS+ (and 108+ as a Yankee, which is a smaller, less significant sample). Nady is also a better OF’er, who is cheaper and gives the Yankees better righty balance. Most importantly, Abreu will be 35, while Nady will be 30. A rapid decline for Abreu is far more like than for Nady.
All things considered, the difference isn’t great.
to Nady’s 128 OPS+ (and 108+ as a Yankee, which is a smaller, less significant sample)
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But isn’t the OPS+ he posted in Pittsburgh just as small and insignificant sample size as the several years of data we have on Nady already? If he put up 144 and 108 split between two teams and one was way out of line with his career and the other was right in line with his career, I don’t see how you can argue that we should ignore one but not the other.
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