I’ve seen some suggest that Nick Swisher will be an asset for the Yankees, defensively, at first base next season. So, I decided to look into it a bit more.
First, I checked the Bill James Handbook 2009 – for the Fielding Bible Awards and (Fielding) Plus/Minus Leaders.
How many votes/points did Nick Swisher get in the Fielding Bible Awards? He got zero. (For the record, Carlos Delgado got two points.)
How did Swisher do in the Plus/Minus Leaders? Well, he didn’t make the leader board at first base. And, he was not among the trailers. So, he had a score of less than +6 and higher than -10. So, he was probably close to average, at best.
How about another book’s view?
In the Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2009, they give fielders “grades” which are evenly distributed between “A” and “F” based on Revised Zone Ratings (RZR) and Plays Made Out of Zone (OOZ). But, you have to play the equivalent of 80 games at a position to get a grade – and Nick Swisher did not (last season).
However, the Hardball Times Baseball Annual does tell us that Swisher played 462 innings at first and had a ZR of .759 and 3 OOZ (in 2008).
The Tiger’s Miguel Cabrera played 1,204 innings at first last season and had a ZR of .757 and 25 OOZ. If you pro-rate Swisher’s ZR and OOZ, it’s close to Cabrera’s marks. And, on last season’s stats, the Hardball Times Baseball Annual gave Cabrera a “D” – for his work in the field at first. Again, not a good sign for those counting on Swisher’s defense (next season at first).
Lastly, we have UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating) stats now available on FanGraphs.com. UZR is the number of runs above or below average a fielder is in both range runs and error runs combined.
In 1,645.2 career innings at first base, Nick Swisher had a UZR of -6.2 (and that works up to a UZR of -5.1 per 150 games played). That’s below average folks. If you don’t think so, look at Jason Giambi. Last season, at first, the “Big G” had a UZR/150 games of -2.5. Yeah, three runs (or just about) below average compared to five runs below average for Swisher.
So, those are your comps here for Swisher (in terms of his value with the leather). Nick’s closer to the Carlos Delgado, Miguel Cabrera, Jason Giambi defensive class of first basemen than he is to the Mark Teixeira, Kevin Youkilis and Casey Kotchman type of defender. He’s much, much, closer to the former than the latter.
9 Responses to “Nick Swisher’s Defense At First Base”
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December 15th, 2008 at 11:59 pm
Nick Swisher was -5 in 2008 in the BIS +/- numbers, which ranked him 24th among regular 1st basemen (he was scored a regular even though he played about 1/3 of a season at 1st, 462 innings.
In 2007, he was -1 in 347 IP, not enough innings to be ranked.
In 2006, he was -1 in 700 IP, and ranked 19th.
The 3 season together make about 1500 innings, or a little more than a full season, and he was an aggregate -7.
This is not a good rating. It is a mediocre to poor rating.
On the other hand, Jason Giambi was -16 in 480 IP in 2006, good (bad?) enough for 34th in the rankins. He was +1 in 2007, but in only 120 innings, not enough to be ranked as a regular. Last season, he was -18 in nearly 900 innings, and again was 34th in the rankings. (Remember, there are only 30 major league teams, so he ranked behind some backups.).
Giambi was an aggregate -33 in roughly 1500 innings, some 26 fewer plays than Swisher in just about the same number of innings.
Swisher is mediocre, but Giambi was horrendous, and with a throwing arm so poor that he was afraid to make throws. For what it’s worth, Giambi’s average BIS rating on bunt plays looks to be about a C, and Swisher’s is about a B+.
In short, the BIS ratins say Swisher should be about 20-30 plays better than Giambi, not because Swisher is great, or even good, but because Giambi was terrible.
I estimate a defensive gain of between 5-10 runs at first with Swisher in there.
December 16th, 2008 at 9:05 am
Evan3457 – thanks for this additional data!
December 16th, 2008 at 9:59 am
Evan, 5-10 a season donot make. 24th among regular first baseman? Wasn’t he moved there by Ozzie and Williams because he had become such a butcher in the outfield? Swisher is a nice player BUT no Teixeira. As I’ve said in my previous post about Swish, he should be a super sub on this team not part of the starting lineup. His defensive capabilities are suspect and his production was no where near Giambi’s last year. For the vast majority of Giambi’s tenure, he was not a first baseman but rather DH. Tino, Doug, Nick, and Co did a much better job at first and that should be a standard as opposed to Giambi.
December 16th, 2008 at 10:13 am
Well, looks like i’ll put my foot in my mouth after this one. I’ll openly admit that i’ve posted about how happy I was with the idea of Swisher at 1b because of what I thought was superb defense. Evan makes a point about how Swish can save runs at 1b, but with all of the data Steve supplied it may be more of a testament to how poor Giambi is rather than how skilled Swish is at 1b.
December 16th, 2008 at 2:19 pm
Swish can save runs at 1b, but with all of the data Steve supplied it may be more of a testament to how poor Giambi is rather than how skilled Swish is at 1b.
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Also may explain why the Yanks prefer to have Nady in RF instead of Abreu.
December 16th, 2008 at 8:38 pm
Butchie:
Plainly, Swisher is no Teixiera. He will be 5-10 runs better than Giambi, in my opinion (Texiera would likely be somewhere around 20-25 runs better, I think).
However, he will cost about 25-50% of what Teixiera costs in the years left on his contract, and the Yanks may be able to afford a Sheets or a Ramirez because of that difference, and still stay under a payroll cap that most fans feel should not exist, but which Hal and Cashman are obviously operating under.
Swisher will also not block Posada or A-Rod being moved to first, or a potential move of Montero there if and when he proves incapable of being a major league catcher.
December 16th, 2008 at 8:45 pm
Nice to see that someone is not listening to the nonsense coming out of the front office that he is a solid defensive 1B.
For what it’s worth, his zone rating in center is actually pretty good.
I wonder if there’s an available 1B that would let us shift him to center…
December 16th, 2008 at 10:27 pm
matcohen -
Swisher’s career UZR/150 games as a CF is -10.3
He’s terrible in CF.
December 16th, 2008 at 10:59 pm
Evan with regards to defense no matter how we cut it Teixeira has an edge. He’s a Gold Glover and I’ll take 30 projected runs over 5.
In reference to price performace ratio, the Yanks need to shore up a mediocre and aging offense. Someone like Teix would be part of the long term solution. Swish’s impact is that of a role player and minimite and is paid accordingly. Teix is a very good player who can become great given the right lineup. Teix will be overpaid and for good reason. He is coveted by many teams for being a three dimensional player which Swish is not. In essence, you get what you pay for. Teix is only a small piece of resolving the Yankee offensive and defensive woes whereas Teix’s impact would be much greater and more expensive.
As for having the flexibilty to move Posada ,Jeter,or Arod let’s not get caught up in aging sacred cows. Posada can DH and Jeter can move to center. By the time Posada leaves , Arod can become DH or field shortstop again(that was opening a Pandora’s box).Case closed on that one…. we can debate that another time because it would take an entire other thread!
Lastly, even though I rail against the Yankees spending , there seems no way in stopping them from going overboard. You hear a lot of people saying that 88 mill came off the payroll, next year you will hear that 40 mill will come off(Pettitte, Damon, and Matsui) and they will add accordingly. But as with the adjustments this year so far, the new players might come in spots that are not a 1a priority. Even though there is a miini-depression going round, guess what? The Yanks are swimming in money and without any real cap in sight they will spend like drunken sailors.