• Some Smart Team Will Sign Pettitte

    Posted by on December 15th, 2008 · Comments (12)

    Everyone knows about Earned Run Average (ERA). But, there are other ways to look at what a pitcher has done in terms of preventing runs. In fact, there are two stats that do a better job than ERA – because they look at what the pitcher should be charged with (as opposed to what happened in the game). These stats are:

    Component ERA (or ERC). This is a baseball statistic invented by Bill James. It attempts to forecast a pitcher’s earned run average (ERA) from the number of hits and walks allowed rather than the standard formula of average number of earned runs per nine innings. ERC allows one to take a fresh look at a pitcher’s performance and gauge if his results are more or less than the sum of its parts. [Source]

    …and…

    Fielding Independent Pitching (or FIP). This is a measure of all those things for which a pitcher is specifically responsible. The formula is (HR*13+(BB+HBP-IBB)*3-K*2)/IP, plus a league-specific factor (usually around 3.2) to round out the number to an equivalent ERA number. FIP helps you understand how well a pitcher pitched, regardless of how well his fielders fielded. FIP was invented by Tangotiger. [Source]

    In 2008, the Yankees Andy Pettitte had an ERA of 4.54. However, his ERC was 4.45 and his FIP was 3.74 (and both these marks were below his ERA). This tells us that Pettitte’s ERA last season was inflated due to poor defensive support (and perhaps some bad luck – if you believe in that).

    Give Andy Pettitte a physical. If he passes, and you have a sound defensive ballclub in the field, you should consider signing him. With some defensive support, you’ll get 30+ starts and 200+ IP from Pettitte (because he almost always pitches in 30 games and throws at least 200 innings every season) and he’ll probably allow just about 4 earned runs per 9 innings pitched. If your team has some offense, he’ll probably win about 15 games for you in the process. Heck, over the last 13 seasons Andy Pettitte was won 14+ games 11 times. The only other pitcher to do that during that time was Greg Maddux.

    Sure, he’ll be 37-years old next season. And, he’s coming off an injury. That’s why you give him a physical. But, again, if he passes, some team would be very smart to give Pettitte a contract. The man can still pitch – and win – assuming he has a decent team behind him.

    Comments on Some Smart Team Will Sign Pettitte

    1. Raf
      December 15th, 2008 | 11:20 pm

      Yankees D Does Pettitte No Favors
      http://tinyurl.com/5kwyv6

    2. AndrewYF
      December 15th, 2008 | 11:22 pm

      So you’re saying the Yankees should now offer 3 years?

    3. yankees27th
      December 16th, 2008 | 1:34 am

      I’m just wondering…What was his FIP in the first half and what was it in the second?

    4. MJ
      December 16th, 2008 | 8:33 am

      I’m sure injury, luck, and fielding impacted Pettitte last year. I want Pettitte back. But I don’t think that he gets to dictate the terms to the Yanks and I think $16M is too much to pay. If the Yanks gave him a 1Y/$13M deal that would be appropriate. But if Pettitte is now looking for a multi-year deal, I don’t care who he is or how much he’s meant to the team, I don’t want the Yanks to sign a 37 year old to a multi-year deal. If some other team wants to, that’s their right.

      If you want to blame Cashman for losing Pettitte to another team for one year, fine. But if Pettitte takes a 3 year deal elsewhere, that’s not on Cashman. That’s just a case of some other GM thinking that 3 years is a wise offer to a 37 year old.

      Like I said in the previous thread, if Pettitte leaves the Yanks for a 3 year deal, good luck to him and I wish him the best.

    5. December 16th, 2008 | 9:08 am

      ~~So you’re saying the Yankees should now offer 3 years?~~

      Did I write that? REALLY?
      Show me where.

    6. December 16th, 2008 | 9:09 am

      FWIW, if it’s true that Andy has an offer for 3/36, somewhere, he should take it – like yesterday. He’ll never see that from the Yankees.

    7. Tex Antoine
      December 16th, 2008 | 9:23 am

      How exactly is Pettitte worth more than Jamie Moyer, who just signed a two-year deal at 6.5 mil per? The Yankees are being incredibly generous at 10. 16 is insanity.

    8. butchie22
      December 16th, 2008 | 9:53 am

      Steve problem is that the sefense is middling on the Yanks with the exception of Arod, Molina and Nady. It doesn’t look that good from the defensive perspective. Pettitte should be brought back and not nickeled and dimed again. Is he worth 16 mill a year? MY retort to that is the soft assholish AJerk is not worth 80 mill for 5 years either! With Pettite , he might have a bounce back year and he knows what it takes to win in NYC unlike CC or AJ.

      Steve , one more thing what happen to your Prison Break posts? I’ve enjoyed the show so far BUT they have jumped the shark a bit lately. And Sucre is gone? I hope not for long!

    9. Raf
      December 16th, 2008 | 10:27 am

      So you’re saying the Yankees should now offer 3 years?
      ————–
      It isn’t so much that the Yanks should offer 3 years. Whether he signs a contract for a year or 3, $20M or the league minimum, he still has something left, and will show it provided he signs with a team that has good defense.

    10. MJ
      December 16th, 2008 | 10:45 am

      and will show it provided he signs with a team that has good defense.
      —————-
      Which is to say that, loyalty aside, the Yanks are a bad for him anyway since their defense is fairly awful.

      I still want Pettitte back because I think he can be a very good #4 starter for this team and I wish the Yanks would just give him the $13M for one year and be done with it. But Pettitte needs to be willing to compromise too. If he refuses to take a pay cut, he’s basically dancing his way out of town. It’s his right to leave if he wants, but no one should blame Cashman if Pettitte isn’t willing to be flexible.

    11. MJ
      December 16th, 2008 | 10:46 am

      the Yanks are a bad
      ——-
      the Yanks are a bad *fit

    12. November 4th, 2009 | 11:51 pm

      [...] so happy to see two of my favorite Yankees, Andy Pettitte and Hideki Matsui, have big contributions towards this wonderful win. And, if this has to be [...]

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