Via Bill Shaikin of The Fabulous Forum blog in the L.A. Times –
And, in a winter in which the Yankees have been roundly criticized for spending more than $400 million on CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett and Mark Teixeira, they clearly made the right financial call on Abreu. They declined to offer Abreu arbitration, not wanting to risk a one-year contract at or near his 2008 salary of $16 million. Abreu will be fortunate to make half that, based on the current market.
I’m not so sure on this one.
It may have been nice to get that draft pick for losing Abreu – especially when you consider how many the Yankees have given up this off-season. (Yes, I know, they do get one for blowing their pick on Gerrit Cole last summer – and that does help offset some of what they have lost so far. But, remember, the Yankees blew another pick last year on Scott Biddle. And, it would be a shame to basically punt two drafts in a row.)
Here’s my logic: Do we know, for sure, that Abreu would have accepted the Yanks’ offer, with the hope to get a one-year deal with New York, given the market where guys like Pat Burrell and Milton Bradley are making $8 to $10 million a year? Well, I see the point where Burrell and Abreu can be paired as “like” players both offensively and defensively. And, I could understand where some might say Bradley is at that level, when healthy, too. Therefore, yes, sure, Bobby Abreu will probably get a contract for 2009 (on the open market) in the range of $9 to $11 million for the season. But, he’ll also probably get a two-year deal too. (After all, Burrell did a multi-year deal. So did Bradley. And, Raul Ibanez too.)
So, if you’re Bobby Abreu, would you want a one year deal for $16 million to be on a team that doesn’t want you – and doesn’t need you – or would you rather have a two-year deal for something like $20 million where you’re going to a team that wants you – and has a position for you to play?
I just don’t see how someone can assume – again, for sure – that Abreu would take $16 mill for one to be in a hostile situation over taking $20 million for two to be in a situation where he’s wanted and was the ability to post some numbers that may allow him to get another contract after this one. Then again, if someone wants to assume then I suppose they have that right…
Personally, I think we have to let this one play out to the end before we start saying the Yankees made the right call on not offering Abreu arbitration…but, maybe that’s just me.
26 Responses to “Shaikin: Yanks Made Right Call On Abreu Arbitration Offer”
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January 6th, 2009 at 1:58 am
I think he would have gladly accepted arbitration in light of the current market and even if there was a 2-year deal on the table.
Also, at this point, I don’t think he’ll get a 2-year deal for more than $18-20 million (I consider Raul Ibanez’s deal with the Phillies to be a ceiling for him and even that looks bad now that Burrell has signed). Further, if he would have accepted arbitration, even without a position locked up, the Yankees would have certainly traded Xavier Nady in order to make room for him.
That’s what I think, anyway.
January 6th, 2009 at 4:09 am
Steve, I know it is killing you to give Cash any points for offseason decisions, but you really are dancing around the big issue here, which is when are you going to slow roast your hat with a mild duck sauce and eat it for the rest of us to enjoy, based on Cash’s signings of CC, A.J. and Tex?
Now, you can’t have your cake and eat it, too. So, if you wait six months, and A.J. is invariably on the DL, you can’t say “I told you so.”
So, taking your Abreu argument to its logical extreme, you basically have to admit TODAY, bsed solely on what we know TODAY, that Cash is the best GM in the game, having signed three top FAs this offseason, plus a Nick Swisher poised for a rebound, based on Sabr bad luck metrics.
I bring this up solely because you seem to be one of those fans/bloggers who criticizes Cash’s good moves as being a product of his unlimited resources, and criticizes his bad moves as being a product of his incompetence.
And, it’s clear that, based SOLELY ON WHAT WE KNOW TODAY, Cash is the greatest GM in 2008-09 MLB history. He is FIRST!!!!!1!!eleventy-one!! The BEST~!
January 6th, 2009 at 8:48 am
There was no chance of him taking arbit back in Dec. And if headcases like Milton Bradley are getting multi yr deals, he will too.
You don’t think the Mets could use him?
January 6th, 2009 at 9:03 am
~~You don’t think the Mets could use him?~~
The Dodgers could have an interest too, on a 2-year deal, if that don’t get Manny.
Or, maybe a team like the O’s or Nationals might take a two year flier on Bobby? Or, the Giants…
January 6th, 2009 at 9:05 am
~~~when are you going to slow roast your hat with a mild duck sauce and eat it for the rest of us to enjoy, based on Cash’s signings of CC, A.J. and Tex?~~~
See: http://tinyurl.com/7jluhz
January 6th, 2009 at 9:06 am
~~the Yankees would have certainly traded Xavier Nady in order to make room for him.~~
That’s an assumption, no?
January 6th, 2009 at 9:32 am
Steve, I guess we can never safely assume that no matter what Abreu would have definitely accepted arbitration and taken his $16-18 million for one year. But the reasons for him to accept that deal far outweigh the reasons not to.
Reasons he’d accept:
1) He’d be making way more money in 2009 than he could anywhere else, possibly double with the current market.
2) Delaying free agency to 2010 can give the baseball market time to adjust and grow again, of course we don’t know this for sure but it’s worth taking that chance especially if he could make $17-18 million for one year in the meantime.
3) He loves New York, wanted to come back and enjoys being a Yankee. He’s stated this many times.
Reasons he’d decline:
1) Umm, he doesn’t like money? Doesn’t want to play in a beautiful new park? Thinks the Yankees don’t like him because he’s a baby and had his feelings hurt by being let go?
Come on, this is Abreu’s last shot at free agency where he can really “cash in.” Would he take a deal like Burrell’s where Abreu would make only $20 million and be a free agent again at age 37? Or would he take his high salary for one year and delay free agency one more year and hope for the best? I think we all know that answer.
Cash made the right call Steve. Draft picks are not a slam dunk, either Cash let Abreu walk and put his money towards Tex/CC/Burnett or offered him arb and was stuck with an aging outfielder who gives away as many runs as he produces. He made the right call.
January 6th, 2009 at 9:33 am
Sorry, Burrell only makes $16 million for two years, not $20.
January 6th, 2009 at 9:35 am
YankCrank – how *sure* are you that he made the right call? On a scale of “I’m willing to bet a buck” to “I’m willing to bet my life” – where do you sit on this one?
January 6th, 2009 at 9:48 am
Steve, is that really the argument here? How “sure” we are that Abreu would accept or not? If that’s the case, no, i’m not 100% percent sure beyond a reasonable doubt that Abreu would have accepted arbitration. We can also be equally unsure that Abreu would have declined arbitration, just as we can be equally unsure about the true quality of the player we drafted by letting Abreu walk and sign elsewhere. Basically, none of us can sure about anything that didn’t happen.
But what I am sure about, whether it was skill or blind luck, is Cashman looked at the dropping market and weighed what was more important: The risk of having Abreu at $16-$18 million and WAY above market value, or the risk of letting him go and using his money elsewhere. As we see Burrell, a productive and younger corner outfielder, sign for only $8 million a year, Cashman’s decision is justified. With that decision, the money that could have gone to Abreu is going to younger, more productive players that were within the Yankees need.
January 6th, 2009 at 9:51 am
~~But what I am sure about, whether it was skill or blind luck, is Cashman looked at the dropping market and weighed what was more important~~
And, my point is, until we know what kind of offer/deal Abrue gets, it’s too early to say whether or not this was the right move.
January 6th, 2009 at 10:38 am
I’m having trouble seeing your point Steve, so we have wait until Abreu signs for a contract less than a $16-$18 million annual value to see if Cashman was right or not? I thought we could safely assume that won’t happen because three more desirable corner outfielders have signed for less than that.
January 6th, 2009 at 11:02 am
Then again, I was wrong with the Tex deal
January 6th, 2009 at 11:14 am
~~so we have wait until Abreu signs for a contract less than a $16-$18 million annual value to see if Cashman was right or not? ~~
Maybe this will clear up any confusion on my point.
Many, based on the PB and MB signings, are now saying that Cashman was/is a genius for not offering Abreu because the market has dropped and Abreu would have *clearly* accepted (getting $16m for one year from NY) and then the Yankees would be stuck with that cost and player). Me? I’m saying that no one can (or should) assume, today, for sure, that we KNOW – again, today, after the PB/MB signings – FOR SURE that Abreu would have accepted the offer.
First, we have to wait and see what kind of deal he gets – and then look at THAT deal and compare it to what he would have gotten (~$16m for one year) had the Yankees offered and he accepted.
If some team – say, like the Giants, Dodgers or Mets – offers Abreu $30 million for three years…do you really think as he signs that he’s thinking “Boy, I wish the Yanks had offered me, because I’d rather have that $16 million for one year right now…”
Really?
Let’s wait. That’s all I am saying. If Abreu ends up signing a one-year deal for something like $9 million, then, YES, *then* it’s the right thing to say that Cashman was smart on the call not to offer….
But, until we know for sure, in terms of what Abreu gets, it’s way too early to start cheering Cashman’s call on this one.
January 6th, 2009 at 11:41 am
A bird in hand is worth two in the bush.
January 6th, 2009 at 11:45 am
yes steve, you are right. if someone wants to assume, they definitely have that right, as it is no different than all of the assumptions you make about things you have no idea about (like how cashman would be as gm of another team!). to apply the same logic (which i agree with), that we have to wait for abreu to sign somewhere before we can really judge the yankees move, we also have to wait to see cashman gm another team before “we start saying he definitely can’t be good”. so yes, since you do it all the time, you should also say people have the right to assume.
January 6th, 2009 at 11:46 am
“Me? I’m saying that no one can (or should) assume, today, for sure, that we KNOW – again, today, after the PB/MB signings – FOR SURE that Abreu would have accepted the offer.”
And my point is that your point is a useless argument. Of course we don’t know “for sure” whether he’d accept or not, nobody does. I don’t see how using the unknown as a basis for an argument is worth it, unless you’re just searching for any reason to disagree with Cashman’s approach.
Let’s take it a step further. Say Abreu indeed signs a 3 year deal for $30 million. Well that would be nice for him, and it’s a possibility, but can Cashman’s move be fully evaluated then? I can say no because, what if the market rebounds and premiere FA corner outfielders make $18 million a year in 2010? Then we can look back and say that Abreu could have, and should have accepted Yankee arbitration if it were offered, make his $16-$18 million in 2009 and cash in when he became a free agent in 2010 when the market recovered.
Sounds like a ridiculous argument, doesn’t it? But those kind of arguments come out when you’re reaching, and by arguing that “we just don’t know ‘for sure’ if Abreu would accept so stop praising Cashman” you’re also reaching to a point where your argument seems a little ridiculous too.
January 6th, 2009 at 11:51 am
Let’s wait. That’s all I am saying. If Abreu ends up signing a one-year deal for something like $9 million, then, YES, *then* it’s the right thing to say that Cashman was smart on the call not to offer…. quote from Steve
Honestly, would Abreu have accepted the arbitration decision? My gut tells me no. No one thought that the market would effect the free agent market like it has! Was Cash Man a genius? He lost yet another draft pick amongst quite a few this season so is that ingeniousness? Paying a productive Abreu for one season of 18 mill is excessive salary wise BUT the Yanks just spent close to a half a billion on fixing their holes. Cash Man had no internal options like Boston to shore up pitching or hitting, so this is the result. Is Abreu worth the money? In this market…no. But he is consistent and can play in the heat of the Northeast(Philly and NY) that counts for something.
In essence, as Steve plainly says we can’t applaud anyone until Abreu signs. Look, Colletti and Sabean who are two dopey peas in a pod would love to sign someone like Abreu for a nickel and dime salary. will it happen? If Burrell got 8 a year, Ibanez 10 a year (that looks like a stupid signing, Ruben Amaro should have signed the devil he did know: Burrell) , Giambi is rumored to get ’round 5 , Bradley 10 mill a year then will Abreu break that 10 mill mark? It stands to reason that Abreu will probably get less than he wanted BUT does Cash Man deverse kudos for that? Quite frankly, he is nickel and diming Pettite right now when he gave three unknown quantities(battle tested in the Bronx) over 400 mill because he hasn’t drafted well and didn’t have the internal options to bolster the team’s offensive decline. He doesn’t deserve any accolades for anything ….yet.
January 6th, 2009 at 12:41 pm
~~~you’re also reaching to a point where your argument seems a little ridiculous too.~~~
I didn’t realize that I was having an argument. I thought I was expressing an opinion.
And, last time I checked, I was allowed to have an opinion…just as you are…no?
January 6th, 2009 at 12:41 pm
Cash Man had no internal options like Boston to shore up pitching or hitting, so this is the result.
—————
They have pitching depth
http://tinyurl.com/5ndpkl
As for the hitting, they were ready to use Nady & Swisher to replace Abreu & Giambi, when Teix fell into their lap.
January 6th, 2009 at 12:54 pm
“No one thought that the market would effect the free agent market like it has!”
Umm yes, about every GM in baseball thought the market would be this way…especially Brian Cashman when he didn’t offer any of his players arbitration. Cashman didn’t just wake up and decide not to do it, he knew that the salary for non-premiere talents would drop significantly and they did. That wasn’t just magic, butchie.
“He lost yet another draft pick amongst quite a few this season.”
Once again, draft picks are nice but none of them are slam dunks. When you have a chance to get guys like Tex or CC you do it and surrender the draft picks. Also, if you’re staring at obtaining a draft pick or overpaying for a 35-year-old, aging, terrible defensively outfielder, you take your risks where you feel they are due. Cash decided to part way with Abreu and “so far,” it seems like the smart decision.
“Quite frankly, he is nickel and diming Pettite right now when he gave three unknown quantities(battle tested in the Bronx) over 400 mill because he hasn’t drafted well and didn’t have the internal options to bolster the team’s offensive decline. He doesn’t deserve any accolades for anything ….yet.”
This is just ridiculous. He’s not nickel and diming Pettitte. $10 million for one year of what Pettitte did last year is extremely generous. You keep talking about players being “battle tested,” but as a GM you shouldn’t be paying players for what they did in the past, whether there is a statistic for battle testing or not. The Yankees are guility for this tactic but i’d like to see them get away from it and this would be a nice start.
I’m also amazed with how many Yankee fans use spending $400 million on quality free agents to bring Cashman down, or say he doesn’t deserve credit. You want a team to not spend and develop talent? There are teams in Minnesota and Oakland that you’d love and could use you to fill their stadiums. The Yankees are currently trying to put together a system where they can draft well and still spend money. So when you see guys like Joba and Cano come up through the sytem, and still see them drop $400 million on quality players you should be HAPPY. What else as Yankee fans can we ask for?
January 6th, 2009 at 12:55 pm
Of course you’re allowed to have an opinion Steve, it is your blog and I come here to read your opinions just about every day. But i’m free to disagree and voice my opinion to you. I guess we can agree to disagree.
January 6th, 2009 at 1:02 pm
Works for me!
January 6th, 2009 at 3:15 pm
Here’s a baseball (not an acounting) question. If the market for Abreu is one year @ $8 million – Do the Yankees sign him ad look to move one of the other outfielders?
January 6th, 2009 at 3:33 pm
Interesting question. But, I think the Yankees are done with Abreu.
January 6th, 2009 at 4:23 pm
Interesting question. But, I think the Yankees are done with Abreu.
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I think so too.