16 Responses to “Report: Cashman Wants To Deal Nady, Keep Swisher”

1. Pat F Says:
   January 8th, 2009 at 11:00 pm

   Not terrible logic steve. But when you look at the contract numbers on swisher that you laid out, that’s the obvious reason to keep him. Also, bill james projections mean next to nothing, and clutch numbers and that combined are two incredibly small ways to compare these two players. For example, you could look at swishers 06 and 07 and say that, at his price, he’s the guy to keep since he’s cost controlled.

2. yankees27th Says:
   January 9th, 2009 at 12:42 am

   You can use fangraphs’ “value” statistics which put both offensive and defensive numbers into dollar values (based on RCAA and runs prevented on defense and about 4.5 million dollars per win created) and in the last few years Nady has been worth: $16, $4, $3, and $3 million while Swisher has been worth $4, $16, $13, and $7 million. Nady clearly wins out last year, but Swisher takes the cake the years prior. Still pretty close…

3. Janks-n-Jints Says:
   January 9th, 2009 at 12:48 am

   Swisher’s supposed to bounce back and Nady’s supposed to come down. This is what I’ve read, but we’ll just have to wait and see.

   Steve, since things might seem like they’re leaning this way, what would you consider to be a good Nady trade?

4. Evan3457 Says:
   January 9th, 2009 at 1:47 am

   There are some other considerations here…

   1) Swisher is 2 years younger.

   2) Swisher is coming off the terrible year; Nady is coming off the career year. Plexiglass priniciple suggests they’ll both swing in the other direction this year. If their triple-crown numbers are close, Swisher is the better hitter, because…

   3) Swisher draws more walks, and is on base more. Even last year, hitting .219, his OBP was higher than Nady’s was for the Yanks in the NL. Career-wise, it’s 20 points higher, even though Nady’s lifetime BAVG is 36 points higher. Nady has seen 3.62 P/PA in his career, and 3.65 last season. Swisher has seen 4.25 P/PA in his career, and 4.52 last year (which might have been the problem; he may have been taking too many pitches and falling behind too much).

   4. Nady has a higher GIDP rate than Swisher, about 25% higher, probably because…

   5. He’s right-handed and Swisher is a switch-hitter. (Swisher hits for a better AVG left-handed and draws more BB, but has more power right-handed.)

   6. Nady in right field the past three seasons: -5, +1, and -4 for a total of -8 over about 780 innings per year, good enough for 23rd, 19th, and 22nd among regular rightfielders, according to BIS +/- ratings. Swisher was +1 in 650 nnings in LF in 2006, good enough for 21st, and +5 last year in 415 innings in right field, good enough for 14th. Combining their LF and RF numbers, Swisher is + 9 in 1326 innings (not quite a full season) over the last 3 years, and Nady is -8 in 2832 innings (about 2 full seasons) in LF and RF over the same 3 years.

   UZR has Swisher at +20.5 runs in 265 defensive games in LF and RF combined for his career, or about +18.6 runs per 150 games. UZR has Nady figured at -0.7 runs in 440 career games in left and right, basically an average flank outfielder.

   ====================================
   I don’t want to make too much out of these points. They are significant but not enormous, even in the aggregate.

   But they all point in the same direction, and against them, you have only two points; 1) the fact that Swisher had a terrible year last year, and Nady had a good one, and maybe that shows that Swisher might be finished early, and maybe Nady just figured things out and is finally fulfilling his potential as a 2nd round draft choice, and 2) keeping Swisher would commit the Yanks to two more seasons and another $17 million, unless they can trade him after this season.

   With the two players fairly close, I’ll take the aggregate of all the small advantages Swisher brings. Nady should also be easier to trade, especially to the NL.

5. TurnTwo Says:
   January 9th, 2009 at 8:40 am

   “With the two players fairly close, I’ll take the aggregate of all the small advantages Swisher brings. Nady should also be easier to trade, especially to the NL.”

   nice breakdown. well done.

   in the end, they really are basically about the same type of player. you are going to get about the same production. neither is going to do you harm playing RF everyday, and both will help add a little power to the bottom 3rd of the lineup.

   so the question for me is, who will bring back the most in trade value?

   and again, just IMO, it would appear that Xavier Nady would bring back a better return player than Swisher, because of what was already said… Nady is coming off a better year last year, and his stock is believed to be rising, while Swisher is coming off a year which he played below his career averages across the board.

   i think unless either one of them brings back Pettitte’s replacement for the 5th starter, it would make more sense right now to hold onto both of them and keep your depth over moving someone just to clear salary, which we know the yankees dont really need to do.

6. Steve Lombardi Says:
   January 9th, 2009 at 9:08 am

   ~~Steve, since things might seem like they’re leaning this way, what would you consider to be a good Nady trade?~~

   The one not made.
   Hey, I did say that they should keep him.

7. YankCrank Says:
   January 9th, 2009 at 9:59 am

   Let’s consider the return on our of these trades guys. Even if Swisher and Nady were equal on all fronts, which they’re not, we acquired Swisher for scrap pieces. Even if you’d rather have the “hungrier player,” how can we expect anymore in return for Swisher than what we gave up? We bought low on him, his stock is at an all-time low, so what exactly do we expect in return for Swish?

   Nady, on the other hand, had a career year and his stock has never been higher.

8. Raf Says:
   January 9th, 2009 at 10:20 am

   I still don’t see why they can’t keep both, and trade one during the season if the need arises.

9. butchie22 Says:
   January 9th, 2009 at 11:15 am

   Look, Nady will get more in a trade BUT he is the better player. Even with the addition of TEix, the Yanks need all the offense they can get. Who knows if Damon and Matsui(if he occasionally plays the field) get hurt? what if Gardner or Melky flatline at the plate. If would stick with Nady because he is playing for a contract and quite frankly the Yankees don’t have the most solid outfield.

   Raf, I agree with your solution actually because of what might happen. Swish will be harder to move, but let’s say they need another reliever or starter or better yet, need Nady or Swish desperately because of injuries and failure they have the outfield depth just in case of an emergency.

10. TurnTwo Says:
    January 9th, 2009 at 11:28 am

    *Look, Nady will get more in a trade BUT he is the better player.*

    it depends on what criteria you are using to compare the players. its really not that cut and dry.

11. Raf Says:
    January 9th, 2009 at 11:35 am

    Swish will be harder to move, but let’s say they need another reliever or starter or better yet, need Nady or Swish desperately because of injuries and failure they have the outfield depth just in case of an emergency.
    ————
    I doubt Swisher or Nady will be that difficult to move. Relievers are a dime a dozen, I doubt that the Yanks would move either for a bullpen arm, definitely not with the glut of arms they have in the system (they lost several arms last offseason when they were nontendered, they lost several arms this offseason when they were nontendered and in the Rule V draft, and they traded away several more arms).

    As for OF depth, if either are traded away, I’m sure the Yanks could find someone, as they always have over the years.

    But I’m of the mindset that they should keep both.

12. butchie22 Says:
    January 9th, 2009 at 12:00 pm

    Turn Two and Raf, if you are a GM that needs to win next year at the dealine you go for Nady, not Swish. You can get draft picks from Nady next year if you don’t keep him whereas you are stuck with Swish for years. Swish has quite a few more years left on his contract and quite frankly won’t have teams lining up like they do with Nady. I think swish is a nice player but he is a role player /4th outfielder on this team now with the signing of Teix. He is a middling defensive outfielder and was supposed to play first but now that Teix is here, they will go with Gardner and Melky over Swish. Nady is playing for a contract and usually players put their best foot forward during that contract year. That was a good call Steve.

    Raf, in the case of what the Yanks would move what for what. How do you know that Marte does it this year? Or anyone else for that matter? Or even starters? what if Burnit and Joba go down, you want to replace them with the failed Hughes/Kennedy experiment again?You never know with this team and now that Tampa is a force to be reckoned with, Cash Man might go with another great pitcher that can get it done down the stretch rather than taking a risk with Hughes or Aceves. Every game counts now with Tampa being a good team. also,No one here has a crystal ball, so it is better to be safe than sorry. I would keep both guys, BUT move Swish if i had the chance to now.

13. YankCrank Says:
    January 9th, 2009 at 1:18 pm

    “He is a middling defensive outfielder and was supposed to play first but now that Teix is here, they will go with Gardner and Melky over Swish.”

    According to UZR, Swisher is a much better outfielder than Nady. Just speaking to Right Field because that’s where Nady or Swish would be playing, in the years Swisher spent significant time there (more than 18 or so games), he put together a UZR of 7.6 (2005) and 8.7 (2007). Swish has played 186 games at RF and only made 5 errors.

    In the years where Nady spent a good chunk of time in RF his best UZR was a .4, with the rest being in the negative. Both of them are not “amazing” outfielders but in no way is Swisher a middling defensive outfielder, he’s actually pretty good.

    Also, where do you get that the Yanks are going with Melky or Gardner over Swish? Melky and Gardner are in CF, Swisher is not a CF.

14. Raf Says:
    January 9th, 2009 at 1:23 pm

    Turn Two and Raf, if you are a GM that needs to win next year at the dealine you go for Nady, not Swish. You can get draft picks from Nady next year if you don’t keep him whereas you are stuck with Swish for years.
    ——————-
    Depends on the GM’s needs. They could let Nady walk and collect the picks, they could re-sign him, they could trade him sometime during the season. With Swisher, they can hold on to him for a few years, they could trade him during or after the season. Either or.

    Raf, in the case of what the Yanks would move what for what. How do you know that Marte does it this year? Or anyone else for that matter?
    ————
    You go on Marte’s track record. Same goes for anyone and everyone else. Hughes and Kennedy are going to get additional chances, the organization is not going to give up on a couple of young arms, certainly not after each 40 innings and especially after the seasons they’ve put up in the minors. Like any other young pitcher, they’re going to have to take their lumps.

15. Rambis35 Says:
    January 9th, 2009 at 4:41 pm

    If we trade one of the two, that leaves Damon in LF, Cabrera/Gardner in CF, Nady/Swisher in RF, and Matsui as DH. What happens when Matsui misses time? He has been injured two of the past three years, and has had problems with both knees. Do we put Damon at DH with Cabrera AND Gardner in the lineup? Posada at DH with Molina catching? I would rather keep Swisher, but I think both he and Nady are valuable. It would make sense to trade for a CF, or for a veteran starter if Pettitte doesn’t return. Otherwise, I’d rather have excellent depth and let Damon, Swisher, Nady, Matsui, and one of Cabrera/Gardner share time between outfield and DH.

16. OldYanksFan Says:
    January 9th, 2009 at 6:35 pm

    Evan3457 on January 9th, 2009 1:47 am

    Excellent post dude. A smorgasbord of relevant stats. I like both guys, but I think Swish not only wins in the numbers game, but is more talented. Swish has been decent, but has not lived up to his potential. I’d like to give him the opportunitity.

    Better glove, better OBP, more power, younger, and just THRILLED TO DEATH to be a Yankee. Just the kind of guy we need.

    It won’t hurt to keep them both. We could use a decent bench. But if Man-of-Cash can get someone decent, I’d pull a deal for Nady.

Leave a Reply

You must be logged in to post a comment.