RLYW Runs The Numbers For 2009
Replacement Level Yankees Weblog has run some numbers and the results say that the Yankees have a chance to win 101 games this season and have an excellent chance to make the post-season. Then again, Replacement Level Yankees Weblog ran some numbers before last season and those said that the Yankees had a chance to win 92 games with a 63% chance of making the post-season.
When reached for comments on this, Yankees G.M. Brian Cashman said “We’re the New York Yankees. We’re always swinging for the fences…even when projecting. We just need to start translating some of these pre-season paper championships into reality. For some reason it’s just not happening. My job is obviously frustrating the hell out of me right now, to be honest. Because I just believe we’re better than this. We just have to make better decisions, I guess…”
O.K., well, maybe Cashman didn’t say that…but, doesn’t it sound like something he would say?
No one in the AL West above .500?
It also says we give up the second fewest amount of runs. Best ERA goes to the Giants.
Then again, Replacement Level Yankees Weblog ran some numbers before last season and those said that the Yankees had a chance to win 92 games with a 63% chance of making the post-season.
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It appears projections didn’t allow for injuries, or general suckiness from Jeter, Cano, Melky & Molina.
Given the unusual number of significant injuries last year, the Yanks did pretty well to win only 3 fewer games than had been predicted.
As per David:
A preseason projection within 3 games of where the team actually ends the season is actually a pretty good projection.
What made it unpleasant, and apparently a fitting subject for snark, is that the same projections missed, and in the opposite direction, on the teams that beat the Yanks out for playoff spots.
They missed by the same 3 games on the Red Sox, and turned a 1/2 game projected lead into a 6-game deficit. RLYW, like most others, caught the Rays improvement, but not its size. Even Baseball Prosepectus, which was the loudest in beating the drum for the Rays’ ascension, underestimated by 9 games, so I can’r really fault RLYW for missing by 10 games.
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However, the projected improvement for the Yanks is real, even though it may not be 12 games’ worth. Last month, in this blog, I broke it down position by position along the starting lineup and the 5 rotation slots, with little extra luck, asking only for the players who had horrible years (Cano, A-Rod, Posada (injury), and Melky/Garner) to come back about halfway to where they had been the year before.
Without going through the whole thing again, the Yanks shoul be about 70-75 runs better on offense, about even on defense, and about 25-30 runs better on the starting staff. This would put the Yanks at about 860 runs scored and about 700 runs allowed, for a +160 run differential, and a record of about 98-64.
I mean, do the math. Teixiera is an improvement on Giambi of about 1-2 games worth defensively, even if he doesn’t have a better offensive year overall. Sabathia may not outpitch Moose, but he’ll throw about 25 innings more, saving about a game’s worth of runs. Burnett, even if he misses his customary 1/3 of a season, will be about 2-3 games better than his replacements. That’s 4-6 games better right there.
Include some bounceback from the 4 slots in the order that I mentioned above, and the Yanks should be another 3-5 games better. Of the hitters left on the team, only Damon and Nady should drop off significantly from last season. Mariano won’t go another season blowing only 1 save, but he won’t lose 4 tie games again, either. This team, without any additional improvement, assuming Mariano is healthy and productive again, should be 6-10 games better than last year.
Unfortunately, they don’t play “shoulds”, so the Yanks will have to prove it on the field. I think they will. It is possible that even if they do, they could lose a 3-way race to the Sox and Rays again, something like Sox 100-62, Rays 95-67, Yanks 94-68, but this team is measurably better than last year’s, even if the win total doesn’t show as much improvement as we’d like at the end.