• Projecting The Yankees Start In 2009

    Posted by on January 19th, 2009 · Comments (5)

    The Yankees open 2009 with six games on the road against the O’s and Royals. All things considered, it’s reasonable to expect the Yankees to win four of those six games. Then the Yankees go to Tampa to play three. Since these are on the road and one of those is the Rays opener, I’ll allow the Yankees to lose two of these three.

    Next, the Yankees come home for seven games against the Indians and A’s. Here, I would expect the Yankees to win at least four of those seven games.

    After that homestand, New York hits the road again – with three games in Boston and three games in Motown. I’m not greedy. If the Yankees split these six games, I’d say that was acceptable.

    So, let’s do the math here. Four and two, and, one and two, and, four and three, and, three and three…that puts the Yankees with a record of 12-10 in their first 22 games of the season.

    Now comes the good news and the bad news. After their first 22 games, the Yankees come home for eight games in a row. That’s the good news. What’s the bad news? New York has to play the Angels, Red Sox and Rays in those eight games.

    How do you think they will do there? Me? I’m thinking, even with the games being at home, the Yankees will be lucky to win four of those eight – since half of them are against the Angels (who always give the Yankees fits). Where does that put the Yanks?

    This would give the Yankees a record of 16-14 after 30 games. Whoops. So much for getting off to a fast start in 2009, huh?

    As a Yankees fan, how would you feel if the Yankees were just two games over .500 roughly one-fifth into the season? It doesn’t sound good – but, seeing the schedule, what would you expect?

    Don’t get me wrong. I would love to see the Yankees go 19-11 in their first 30 games. Or, even 18-12 would be a thrill. But, can we really expect that, when they have to play 14 games against the Rays, Bosox and Angels in those 30 games?

    Look at it this way: Suppose the Yankees split those 14 games against Tampa, Boston and L.A. – that’s seven and seven, leaving 16 games. Then, the Yankees would have to play .630 ball in those other 16 games to post an overall mark of 17-13 (in their first 30) – which would be decent, but, not great. And, keep in mind that 9 of those 16 games are road games for the Yankees.

    In any event, looking at all this, it would be a shock to see the Yankees start the season with a monster record, say, like 20-10. The schedule is just too tough. But, that’s me. What do you think?

    Comments on Projecting The Yankees Start In 2009

    1. Pat F
      January 19th, 2009 | 11:39 pm

      if the yanks start 16-14, i’ll be thrilled, and consider that a “fast start”. it’s all relative to the schedule. sure, if they go 16-14, a lot of the bozos on espn will be talking about another mediocre/slow start for the yankees, and how sabathia, teixeira, and burnett haven’t changed the club. all of this with little mention of the fact that half of those games are against 2008 playoff teams. in 2007, the yankees were a game under at the all star break, but that had a lot (not all, but a lot) to do with their schedule. then they played a million games against tampa and baltimore and found themselves right where they needed to be at the end. did they play better? yes. but it also was a lot about who they were playing against.

      anyway, point is, 16-14 should not be classified as a slow start in 2009. with our talent, 17-13 looks a lot better, but it could be a lot worse than 16-14 with that schedule.

    2. January 20th, 2009 | 8:27 am

      I agree with your analysis, but I’m not too worried about them getting off to a fast start, anyway. They just have to beat the bad teams, which, as was noted in the last thread like this, they didn’t do last year.

    3. Southern Yankee
      January 20th, 2009 | 9:44 am

      With the new pitching an Tex I expect a .600 + winning percentage for the whole year not just the first 30 games!!!

      108 – 54 in 2009 ! It has been done, lets see them do it again.

    4. January 21st, 2009 | 6:24 pm

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    5. March 10th, 2009 | 12:21 am

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