Prospect Poop
I’ve gotten a few e-mails from folks regarding Keith Law’s “Ranking the top prospects” feature at ESPN.com today.
It seems that Yankees prospects Austin Jackson (#46), Jesus Montero (#83) and Andrew Brackman (#95) made the cut.
Here’s the deal. The Yankees have a few prospects in their farm system. Most teams do. In the big picture, the Yankees probably have about as many quality prospects in their system as one-third of the teams in baseball, thereabouts. And, there are some teams who have more blue-chip prospects than the Yankees. And, there are some teams who have less top prospects than the Yankees. But, it’s not like some teams are head-and-shoulders above the Yankees in terms of having Grade-A prospects. And, it’s not like the Yankees have a gaggle of hot prospects that is twice the size of some other teams.
I know that some Yankees fanboys and/or bloggers like to carry on about the prospects in the Yankees system, etc., as if Yankees prospects walk on water and they are better than a regular slice of heaven. But, that’s all hyperbole. And, anyone who buys into that, and who starts to think that the Yankees front office is so much better at seeding a farm system than most other baseball teams, is looking through rose-colored glasses.
After all, did the Yankees not have to spend a half-billion dollars this off-season to fill big league needs at first base and two starting pitcher slots?
None of those three needs came out of the thin air. Anyone could have told you three years ago that the Yankees would have a need at first base in 2009. And, most could have guessed, back in 2006, that New York’s starting rotation might have needs for this season. Yet, when the time came to address those needs, the farm system had nothing for the Yankees to call upon – hence the spending spree this winter.
So, if the Yankees farm system is so good, why could it not produce two starting pitchers and a first baseman?
Further, at the end of 2007, the Yankees were left without a catcher. Having no one in the minors, they overpaid to keep Jorge Posada in town. Everyone knew Posada’s age and when his contract was going to end. It did not sneak up on anyone. Yet, again, the Yankees farm system was no help there.
Sure, I know what’s coming now…the cries of “Just wait! There’s guys in the low minors now who will be helping the Yankees in 2015!”
Yeah, and, the check is in the mail, I don’t think you look fat, it happens to a lot of guys, and this will only hurt for a second…
I know that some Yankees fanboys and/or bloggers like to carry on about the prospects in the Yankees system, etc., as if Yankees prospects walk on water and they are better than a regular slice of heaven.
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Well, you figure that people feel the same way about the organization in general, it makes sense they would feel that way about the minors as well.
After all, did the Yankees not have to spend a half-billion dollars this off-season to fill big league needs at first base and two starting pitcher slots?
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Yes, and they also traded for a 1bman. As for the SPers, they signed 2 to replace the ones that left. Makes sense, considering that 4 spent time on the shelf.
Yeah, the 1B they traded for was so good that they signed someone else, for mega-money, like the next day…
~~As for the SPers, they signed 2 to replace the ones that left. ~~
They signed two because the ones from the system, Hughes, Kennedy, Igawa, Rasner, etc. failed. And, there was no one else close to being ready.
Further, at the end of 2007, the Yankees were left without a catcher. Having no one in the minors, they overpaid to keep Jorge Posada in town.
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?
Looking @ fangraphs value metric, it appears Posada has been underpaid.
They signed two because the ones from the system, Hughes, Kennedy, Igawa, Rasner, etc. failed. And, there was no one else close to being ready.
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Do you honestly think that the Yankee organization is giving up on Hughes & Kennedy?
Also needed to be taken into consideration is that 4 of their guys got hurt, and 3 will have innings limits.
Yeah, the 1B they traded for was so good that they signed someone else, for mega-money, like the next day…
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Danny Tartabull was the Yankee RF, it still didn’t stop them from acquiring Paul O’Neill, a RF’er. Sparky Lyle was the reigning Cy Young award winner, it didn’t stop them from acquiring Goose Gossage. Nick Johson was ready to play in 2002, the Yanks still went out and got Giambi. So on and so forth.
Unless you have an inside source with the Yankees which has told you the organization is no longer interested in the development of Hughes and Kennedy and are going full-throttle in a different direction, you have no evidence that they failed. You only have evidence of one dismal season.
Steves right. The farm system is all hype. They have one player above Single A who is considered a legit major league prospect. One. All their “premium” prospects are 19 yr olds and playing below Single A.
It’s a joke.
Steves right. The farm system is all hype. They have one player above Single A who is considered a legit major league prospect. One. All their “premium” prospects are 19 yr olds and playing below Single A.
It’s a joke
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The farm system is not all hype and it’s not a joke. Further, Steve never said it was. Steve correctly states that the Yanks are neither teeming with prospects nor are they lagging behind everyone else. The Yanks have been graded as having the 15th best system out of 30 clubs and that makes sense to me. They’ve got an average farm system right now.
It’s worth pointing out that farm system rankings (and prospect rankings, for that matter) are very fluid. The Yanks could easily drop a few spots if their prospects stall out this year, or, just as likely, their farm system could climb a few spots if some of their players have good seasons and achieve “elite” prospect status.
Steve isn’t shitting all over the Yankee farm system in this post. In so many ways, he’s right. The farm system is very average right now and that’s ok. We spent a lot of money to fill holes, and just by comparison, it’s nothing new. In 2006 the Red Sox spent $294.5 million to either resign their current players or fill pressing needs with players outside of the organization. Like the Yankees, the Sox have the financial resources to fill holes outside the organization and I don’t think either teams should be apologetic about it. Who cares if a large market team didn;t develop all of their players?
The Yanks don’t need the best farm system, rather an above average and effective one to team with their financial advantage. If they can get both working well, the team will be winning for a long time. Also, how can any fan be discouraged with our farm system? I know they had some off years, but with guys like Hughes, Kennedy, Joba, Cano etc. contributing, we are showing that we can once again develop some major league talent.
Aren’t these the same buffoons who wanted to sell T-shirts last season reading “Save the Big Three”? How’d that work out? The same people who clamor every year for the Yankees to re-acquire oft-injured, never-good Nick Johnson, for no other reason than he was once a Yankee farmhand? How many times do these prospect fetishists have to be wrong before we stop paying attention to them?
Aren’t these the same buffoons who wanted to sell T-shirts last season reading “Save the Big Three”? How’d that work out? The same people who clamor every year for the Yankees to re-acquire oft-injured, never-good Nick Johnson, for no other reason than he was once a Yankee farmhand? How many times do these prospect fetishists have to be wrong before we stop paying attention to them?
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I’m not sure I know of too many of the “prospect fetishists” who wanted to bring back Nick Johnson AND who were selling the “Big 3″ t-shirts. I could be wrong but I think those are two distinct groups of fans.
Also, you make it seem like everyone who supports prospects is a “fetishist” and always wrong. That’s a bit extreme, no?
I guess we could just finish last every year like the Rays did and then have an awesome farm, lol. Yankcrank makes a good point… The Yanks need a decent farm coupled with their ability to spend. Let the Rays and other crappy teams have an awesome farm. We just need to be able to do both spend and draft smartly.
Let the Rays and other crappy teams have an awesome farm.
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Having an awesome farm, and an awesome ML team aren’t mutually exclusive. It’s rare that it happens, but it can be done.
Having an awesome farm, and an awesome ML team aren’t mutually exclusive. It’s rare that it happens, but it can be done.
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Exactly. Just look at Boston. They have lots of money to spend (and they do) AND they’ve been producing very solid prospects for the past handful of seasons.
~~I guess we could just finish last every year like the Rays did and then have an awesome farm~~
That’s not the answer. See the Pittsburgh Pirates.
“Aren’t these the same buffoons who wanted to sell T-shirts last season reading “Save the Big Three”?”
Buffoons? What exactly is wrong with wanting to see some of your homegrown talent develop? Especially with how rare it is to find a stud on the free agent market for a reasonable price. I love that we have CC, but look what we had to pay for a top-flight starter. You’re telling me the people who wanted to keep Joba/Hughes/Kennedy are buffoons because they’d like to see the Yankees develop their own studs and have them pitch for the Yankees at $300,000 a year instead of $22.5 million a year?
Come on, those guys are 22-24-years old. They haven’t failed, they aren’t a waste…they’re kids. Let them develop and see what they can become. Wanting to give those kids a chance doesn’t make you a buffoon.
That’s not the answer. See the Pittsburgh Pirates.
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Agreed. Although even that appears to be changing. Pedro Alvarez, Jose Tabata and Andrew McCutcheon look like a nice group of prospects at the top of BA’s top-10 Pirates list.
http://tinyurl.com/cok7z7
Touche about The Pirates..and I know its tough to have both. Also, I think we’ve kept up with The Sux in developing talent recently with Cano, Wang, Joba, and some of the other young pitchers.
I think we’ve kept up with The Sux in developing talent recently with Cano, Wang, Joba, and some of the other young pitchers.
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To that point, does it really matter how a player is acquired? There have been free agent busts, there have been draft busts. Last I checked, teams don’t get “extra credit” for having players developed from within. There have been teams that won with homegrown talent, there have been teams that won with “mercenaries.”
So I don’t see the big deal. When the Yanks were bad from 89-92, it was a combination of things. While a solid farm system probably would’ve helped, it was a series of bad moves that put them in that position.
Good Point Raf..I just wanna win 27. I Could care less how we do it. If we “Buy a Championship”, so what. Everyone hates the Yanks anyway, right? We would get critized for being too frugal if we didnt spend the money. (Which will be there regardless)
I think we’ve kept up with The Sux in developing talent recently with Cano, Wang, Joba, and some of the other young pitchers.
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This seems highly doubtful.
Lester, Papelbon, Delcarmen, Masterson, Youkilis, Pedroia, Ellsbury, Lowrie.
The Yankees are way behind in position players (don’t tell me Melky = Ellsbury – is anyone offering young talent for Melky, are they offering salary dumps like Cameron?), and for all that great potential in the bullpen arms, the proof of the pudding is in the tasting, and none of the Yankee arms assigned to the bullpen have done anything yet, while Masterson made a very impressive debut, and Delcarmen has an ERA+ in the last two years of 141 and 232, better than anyone in the Yankee setup corps.
Another sign of how the Red Sox are ahead in developing prospects – Lowrie, Masterson and Ellsbury are no longer considered to be prospects, and yet despite “graduating” these guys, the Sox only fell to, I believe, 8 in Law’s rankings.
As for the question of whether it “matters” if a team is stocked with homegrown talent or free agents, this is how I’ve come to look at it: There’s something more exciting about watching young players get to the majors and excel, when they are still hungry, have something to prove, and are working toward goals of both getting that big contract as well as winning championships. There’s a level of energy and excitement they bring that isn’t quite the same as lining up a group of established guys, mercenaries who have come for the big money and the hope of a ring or two.
The other important factor is that when you build your team with free agents, you end up overpaying in dollars and years. One bad season kept that lesson from being learned, and while the Yanks might be well situated to win one or two rings in the next few years, the roster is going to have more than its share of old, tired, declining stars.
There’s a level of energy and excitement they bring that isn’t quite the same as lining up a group of established guys, mercenaries who have come for the big money and the hope of a ring or two.
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As long as the end result is the same, I don’t think it really matters. While it may be nice to have an up and coming corner OF’er, I don’t think any baseball fan in their right mind doesn’t enjoy watching Manny Ramirez or JD Drew hit.
The other important factor is that when you build your team with free agents, you end up overpaying in dollars and years.
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That isn’t necessarily true. Even if it were, there are ways around it, whether it’s trading the player, or moving him to another position. Those old, tired, declining stars can be replaced with young, fresh, inclining stars. For example, Clemens left, Pedro showed up. Dave Winfield and Reggie Jackson played together in NY for a season. It has been done, it can be done.