Pinch Hitting @ The LoHud Yankees Blog
Today, it’s my turn to pinch-hit at Pete Abe’s LYB. Click here to see my entry there. I’m also pasting the text below as a FYI. I will attempt to answer questions and comments on this one over at Pete’s house today. But, I suspect that I won’t be able to do that until much later this evening. Feel free to comment on this piece there, if interested. But, if you want to leave a comment on it here, that’s fine too. And, I promise to address any questions and comments left here as well – but, it might not be right away, again, because of other commitments on the plate for today.
This past December, the Yankees signed Free Agent starting pitcher CC Sabathia to seven-year deal for $161 million. And, most Yankees fans now expect the big lefty to be as intimidating as a bear in a used ice truck once he suits up for New York – and that every fifth day, when CC takes his turn, life in Yankeeland will be Sabathialicious.
And, why not? In 2008, CC Sabathia threw 253 innings (IP) and had 44 Runs Saved Above Average (RSAA) in the process.
However, just for the fun of it, let us look at some “major” off-season starting pitcher acquisitions made by the Yankees since Brian Cashman became their G.M. (where the pitcher acquired was coming to play home games in New York for the first time) – and see how these pitchers with major league experience did the season before joining the Yankees and how they did during their first season in New York:
Roger Clemens – Traded for prior to the 1999 season.
1998 stats: 234.6 IP and 51 RSAA.
Stats with the Yanks in 1999: 187.6 IP and -4 RSAA.Mike Mussina – Signed prior to the 2001 season.
2000 stats: 237.6 IP and 23 RSAA.
Stats with the Yanks in 2001: 228.6 IP and 34 RSAA.Kevin Brown – Traded for prior to the 2004 season.
2003 stats: 211 IP and 38 RSAA.
Stats with the Yanks in 2004: 132 IP and 5 RSAA.Javier Vazquez – Traded for prior to the 2004 season.
2003 stats: 230.6 IP and 48 RSAA.
Stats with the Yanks in 2004: 198 IP and -10 RSAA.Carl Pavano – Signed prior to the 2005 season.
2004 stats: 222.3 IP and 23 RSAA.
Stats with the Yanks in 2005: 100 IP and -3 RSAA.Randy Johnson – Traded for prior to the 2005 season.
2004 stats: 245.6 IP and 50 RSAA.
Stats with the Yanks in 2005: 225.6 IP and 17 RSAA.Pretty scary, huh? Clemens, Mussina, Brown, Vazquez, Pavano and Johnson all pitched like an “ace” in their season prior coming to New York. Yet, only Mussina was able to duplicate that during his first year with the Yankees.
What does this mean? Well, it doesn’t mean, for sure, that Sabathia will not pitch as well in 2009 (as he did last year). But, it does suggest that Yankees fans, within their expectation sets/dreams for CC this season, should allow for the possibility that Sabathia may not replicate his 2008 success during his first year in Yankeeland. Nothing in baseball is a lock – especially sustained excellence by a starting pitcher (as demonstrated herein by the numbers for Clemens, Brown, Vazquez, Pavano and Johnson).
In any event, as Yankees fans, let’s hope that CC Sabathia has a “first time in New York” experience more like Mike Mussina did in 2001 – because, if he doesn’t, it’s going to be a long baseball season this year in the Bronx.
Well done Steve. Very interesting with good stats behind it.
The thing I like the best is your sign of optimism. Instead of taking a stance to talk about your disappointments in Cashman or what may go wrong with the team, you decided to give Yankees fans a dose of reality by warning them to curve their extreme expectations. Good work.
Personally, i’m not expecting the world from C.C. I’d be very happy if he lived up to his expectations by eating innings, getting some shutouts and a lot of strikeouts.
However, just for the fun of it, let us look at some “major” off-season starting pitcher acquisitions made by the Yankees since Brian Cashman became their G.M.
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I love the “just for the fun of it.” It’s hard for you to sneak any comments about Cashman under the guise of “just for fun.” I do agree with YankCrank though. Good stats, not pessimistic. Good post.
Thanks guys.
I’ll comment here because PeteAbe’s comments forum is a massive cluster-(eff)….
I agree that we should temper expectations because of (1) the unpredictability of pitching and (2) the risk of work-load related injury. Having said that, I still think Sabathia is going to be a really good signing. Moose was the last time the Yanks signed an ace-caliber pitcher in his prime and, as Steve pointed out, that one worked out well.
From PeteAbe’s comments, YankFanDave wrote:
“This makes a case that the moves Cash made were sensible based on their performance the season before joining the Yankees…The bottom line is that a GM can assess the likelihood of success by past performance, there are no guarantees once a deal is done.”
Yep, I think I’d agree with that statement.
Yup, that’s the battle cry of “The Royal Order of the Cashman Kool-Aid Brigade”:
‘It seemed like the right move at the time!’
Yup, that’s the battle cry of “The Royal Order of the Cashman Kool-Aid Brigade”:
‘It seemed like the right move at the time!’
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That’s how I’ve made every decision in my life. Take the facts that are available, weigh the pros and cons, and then pull the trigger. If works, it works. If it doesn’t, there was no way for me to know how it would turn out anyway. I can’t predict the future any more than anyone else.
I really don’t see why this is so hard for you to understand. I can’t imagine you make decisions any differently.
I really don’t see why this is so hard for you to understand. I can’t imagine you make decisions any differently.
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I agree with MJ. Steve, how else can you rate a GM except by how the move seemed at the time? I have ZERO problems with the Vasquez move because he seemed like the real deal. If you asked me at the time, I would think he would still be on the team today.
Remember, hindsight is 20/20. Foresight is never perfect. But you do what you can with the available information. It’s not Cash’s fault that every pitcher he signed (save Mussina) did much worse immediately after he signed them.
What would you say about Weaver, Steve? He absolutely sucks, but is a WS winner. Did Cash have it right by acquiring him, since he eventually won a WS? I would obviously say know, but your fickle and inconsistent attacks on Cashman might blame him for letting Weaver go.
know=no
~~I can’t imagine you make decisions any differently.~~
No question. When I have to make a call on something, personally, or professionally, I try and think in through and factor everything in, be rational, as much as I can, and then make the move that seems to be the right thing to do..
And, I’m fully aware that, sometimes, you can do everything right, and the wrong result happens, and, other times, you can make the wrong move and then, sometimes, it still works out, for some reason. That’s life.
But, all that said, professionally, while I try to always do what’s right, what seems like the smart thing to do, if the results – for whatever reason – do not work out, and those results are costly, I’m going to hear about when my performance is reviewed and it will probably impact my compensation and/or job status.
And, that’s all I’m doing with Cashman. It’s performance review time, and results are more important than methods. So, sure, maybe he tried to do the right thing…but, close only counts in horseshoes and…well, you know.
Does that make me a hard guy? Maybe? Then again, as I have said many times, I want the GM of my billion dollar baseball team to be the best in the game, or one of the best…and not just the guy who tried to make the right move…but seems to have a knack for getting bad results.
You may have a different yardstick for your GM, that’s fine.
thenewguy – I’m not biting on your Weaver question. Give me a more serious one and I’ll consider it.
thenewguy – I’m not biting on your Weaver question. Give me a more serious one and I’ll consider it.
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Weaver is a bit of an exageration. How about Vasquez? I thought that was a great move at the time. It was for the first half of the season (he even made the all star team), and then he just collapsed.
He had 3 straight 215+ IP sub-4.00 era. And since he left the Yankees he has been decent and eaten up a lot of innings.
Do you chide Cashman for getting him in the first place because he bombed with the Yankees. Or do you chide Cashman for letting him go because he has since proved to be at least a reliable major league pitcher? Or do you view it differently?
~~How about Vasquez?~~
To be 100% honest, at the time, I thought it was a good pick-up.
But, I’m just the average bear. And, like I wrote here:
http://waswatching.com/2007/01/06/should-the-buck-stop-at-cash/
I know that many will be quick to say things here like “It seemed like the right move, at the time, to get Vazquez” and “The whole world was chasing Pavano – and he took less money to come here” and “Who could have predicted that Johnson would get old so fast?” and “The Red Sox wanted Contreras just as bad,” etc.
But, isn’t it Brian Cashman’s job to be smarter than the average bear when it comes to acquiring talent? Or, is it just O.K. for him to follow the path of conventional wisdom when it comes to acquiring pitching and then if it doesn’t work out it’s just a matter of shrugging your shoulders at the results and saying “It seemed like a good idea at the time”?
[...] only issue here is the one that I pointed out two weeks ago: When you look at some “major” off-season starting pitcher acquisitions made by the Yankees [...]