Sherman: 21 Months Till D-Day On Jeter
Via Joel Sherman -
Keep these facts in mind: The first season of a new contract would be 2011, Jeter’s age-37 season. No team has won it all with a shortstop that old, and only one (the 1956 Dodgers with Pee Wee Reese) even reached the World Series.
Just two shortstops 37 or older (Honus Wagner and Luke Appling) have generated an OPS greater than .800 (minimum 300 plate appearances), and it was last done by Appling 60 years ago.
And how about his defense? Every statistical evaluation shows Jeter’s range to consistently be among the majors’ worst, and the scouting community pretty much confirms that.
By 2011, the Yanks could have either Jeter or just his future plaque at Monument Park play short; they will have about the same range.
As Sherman notes in the feature, it becomes even more complicated – beyond the dollars and performance levels – when you figure that Derek Jeter will probably be about 60 hits shy of 3,000 career hits as he heads into the 2011 season.
Can you imagine Jeter getting his 3,000th hit with some team other than the Yankees?
Jeter’s gotta go after 2010. I know he won’t, and that’ll be one of the first truly justifiable criticisms of Cashman that I’ll get behind. But he’s gotta go.
I couldn’t give a crap if Jeter gets hits 3,000, 4,000, or 5,000 in Boston or anywhere else. The Yanks are a better team without Bernie and they’ll be a better team without Jeter. Loyalty at the expense of winning is not in the best interest of the team or of my bank account when I’m shelling out dough for season tickets.
~~Jeter’s gotta go after 2010.~~
ETA on #3,000 is May 2011. There’s no way the Stein Bros. let that happen in another uni, IMHO.
Not only does it not happen in a different uniform, but it doesn’t happen on the cheap either, for years or dollars. Or does anyone think that Jeter doesn’t care about things like that? I haven’t noticed too many Yankee players giving hometown discounts, or even being asked for one. He’ll sign for an enormous amount, and for far more years than a smart organization would give.
For Boston, Tampa and the rest of the AL East, call this the silver lining to the dark cloud of signing A-Rod and Teix.
ETA on #3,000 is May 2011. There’s no way the Stein Bros. let that happen in another uni, IMHO.
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I know it. It’s likely going to be a mess.
If I were in charge, I’d be telling Jeter from the first moment he walks into camp next week: I’ll give you a 1 year contract with options right now. Sign it. Otherwise, we’re not having you back after 2010.
In all seriousness, I can’t imagine the Jeter market will be that robust for a guy turning 37. The economy could be all rainbows and roses by then but I just don’t see too many teams falling over themselves to add an old man that can’t play SS.
Isnt that the whole point of moving him to another position?
Isnt that the whole point of moving him to another position?
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Will Jeter agree to move to another position? Which position will he move to? 1B is taken, I really don’t see how anyone could expect him to play CF competently, and he doesn’t really hit like a DH.
I’m sorry, but this is silly. Jeter has yet to fall off a cliff, a la Bernie. His defense last year was, in fact, better than usual. His offense was worse, but, given the splits that have been noted by everyone and his Jeter-loving cousin, I think it’s not unreasonable to expect a bounce-back.
Yes, Jeter’s getting old. And so he will decline. But the point from which he is declining is hall-of-fame level. Let’s see how he does over the next two years. Any discussion in the meantime is little more than idle speculation.
And given that, I would expect the Yankees to do with Jeter exactly what they’ve done with Mo and Posada. Wait it out. See what happens. Offer a contract based on that, if slightly over market value.
And there’s no reason any player should give any team a hometown discount, let alone a team like the Yankees.
Isnt that the whole point of moving him to another position?
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Honestly, for all this talk that pops up every off-season, there isn’t really any compelling reason to make such a move at this point. Jeter is still, easily, a top-ten shortstop. Is there really a better shortstop the Yankees could realistically replace him with right now?
I know Christina Kahrl just wrote about moving Jeter to CF and signing Cabrera. But even then, it’s not that Cabrera is better than Jeter; it’s that Cabrera is better than Melky and Gardner. And, as MJ notes, I really wouldn’t count on Jeter being any better in CF than at SS at this point.
Seems to be a popular subject today. Neyer says this:
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Derek Jeter can’t play shortstop in 2011. Not for the Yankees, anyway. Everyone knows this. Cal Ripken was an institution, too, but he shifted to third base when he was 36. Of course, that path probably won’t be open to Jeter because A-Rod will presumably still be good enough to play third base (and neither of them can move to first, where Mark Teixeira is locked in for many years).
I’m sure the Steinbrothers would love to see Derek Jeter wearing pinstripes forever, but I believe they’re even more infatuated with winning, and in two years it’s going to be terribly obvious that spending $20 million on a 37-year-old shortstop who can’t play shortstop may be tantamount to losing. So I think we can dispense with the speculation, because I’m ready to tell you right now: It’s just not going to happen. The Yankees will have a younger and better shortstop in 2011.
Where does that leave Cap’n Jetes? That’s mostly up to him. I also believe the Yankees will try to keep him in the fold, perhaps with a $10 million salary (chump change for them) and the vague promise of semi-regular playing time as a sort of utility player. And my guess is that he’ll accept. Because given his obviously diminishing skills, it’s likely to be the best offer he gets. By a lot.
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So Neyer is projecting a strong, steady decline into a utility role (there goes hopes of 4000 hits). Of course, he is a guy from New England, so its probably just his latent Yankee-hating genes.
I agree with Neyer that he’s declining badly and I agree that the market for Jeter won’t be very favorable. Where I don’t agree with Neyer is that Jeter will accept a utility role. I just don’t see Jeter telling the Yanks that it’s ok to make him a backup.
Furthermore, for $10M a year, who the hell needs Jeter as a backup? That’s a colossal waste of dough and a bench spot.
I think it’s entirely possible that Jeter can and will play shortstop for the Yankees in 2011. Which is not to say that Neyer’s scenario is unreasonable. It’s just far from the certainty he seems to think it is.
Like MJ, I really don’t see Jeter hanging on in a utility role. He’ll be a full-time player until he retires. Unlike MJ, I’m fine with that.
And, no, Jeter won’t even sniff 4000 hits.
So Neyer is projecting a strong, steady decline into a utility role (there goes hopes of 4000 hits). Of course, he is a guy from New England, so its probably just his latent Yankee-hating genes.
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I’m guessing you’re saying this with tongue planted firmly in cheek, but just in case, Neyer isn’t from New England, he’s from the mid-west and I’m fairly certain he was a Royals fan prior to his professional career as a baseball writer, which would also explain any lingering Yankee hatred. To be honest though, I’ve always found his opinions on the Yankees to be rather fair and balanced.
He tends to have some fun with Yankee fans when it comes to Jeter, but he’s on the mark here. It’s pretty much a no-win situation. It’s going to be very interesting watching this play out.
What good, young shortstops are going to be on the free agent market after the 2010 season? What good, young shortstops do we have in our system?
Jeter is
What good, young shortstops are going to be on the free agent market after the 2010 season? What good, young shortstops do we have in our system?
Jeter is obviously going to be the shortstop in 2011. The only question is how bad the contract will be for the team. My guess is that he’ll demand to be signed through the same age that A-Rod is signed through (42) for about $15 million a year. Yeah, it’s going to be a s***show, but we don’t have many other options, and could you guys really stomach seeing him play elsewhere?
. . . My guess is that he’ll demand to be signed through the same age that A-Rod is signed through (42) for about $15 million a year. Yeah, it’s going to be a s***show. . .
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I agree. This is how athletes’ minds work. It will be ugly.
My suggestion: Jeter to third; Arod to the outfield;
My suggestion: Jeter to third; Arod to the outfield
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A-Rod shouldn’t have to move off a position he’s playing competently to make room (again) for an inferior player. This isn’t A-Rod coming to the Yanks and trying to fit in.
If you can’t figure out where to play him, he’s gotta go. That’s gotta be the rule. Jeter’s gotta go.
Hmmm … could have sworn I read that Neyer grew up in Vermont or something, but yeah, if he’s a Royals fan he’d have reason to hate on the Yankees, too.
I do think Jeter will be like Posada and chase the last dollar and year, and with 3000 hits on the horizon, he’s not going to be told he’s a utility guy nor will he accept a Jason Varitek-like deal.
I hate to say this MJ, but your best chance to get your wish may be to hope that Jeter has an awful 2010 season. Heaven forbid he bounces back and has a decent couple of years. He might get a contract through age 43 at 22 million or more.
Heaven forbid he bounces back and has a decent couple of years. He might get a contract through age 43 at 22 million or more.
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I would be very surprised if that happened.
Hmmm … could have sworn I read that Neyer grew up in Vermont or something, but yeah, if he’s a Royals fan he’d have reason to hate on the Yankees, too.
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That’s Buster, and he grew up a Dodgers fan.
I really believe that jeter will see he has to change positions, maybe by 2010. He will remain a Yankee for at least 7 more years as a steady player.
~~Jeter’s gotta go after 2010.~~
ETA on #3,000 is May 2011. There’s no way the Stein Bros. let that happen in another uni, IMHO.
Quote from Steve
There is no doubt that the powers that be will keep St Derek around at any cost. The goodwill factor will keep him around no matter what the cost. There might be the controversy of keeping him at short, which must be discussed no matter what St Derek wants. He has to change postions eventually for the good of the team, no matter what he wants.