Stats On A-Rod Tell When He Started Getting A Boost?
Some interesting numbers on Alex Rodriguez…where…
XH/PA = Extra Base Hits per Plate Appearance
XH/OUTS = Extra Base Hits per Outs Made
HR/PA = Homeruns per Plate Appearance
HR/OUTS = Homeruns per Outs Made
YEAR XH/PA XH/OUTS HR/PA HR/OUTS 1996 0.13 0.22 .0532 .0861 1997 0.10 0.15 .0361 .0528 1998 0.11 0.16 .0561 .0832 1999 0.12 0.17 .0734 .1085 2000 0.11 0.19 .0610 .1015 2001 0.12 0.19 .0710 .1130 2002 0.12 0.19 .0786 .1242 2003 0.12 0.18 .0657 .1042 2004 0.09 0.14 .0516 .0786 2005 0.11 0.18 .0671 .1121 2006 0.09 0.14 .0519 .0803 2007 0.12 0.20 .0763 .1262 2008 0.11 0.18 .0589 .0921
Notice that, A-Rod’s XH/PA and XH/OUTS numbers through the years are somewhat steady…around .11 and .18, respectively, each season. So, in terms of getting extra base hits, Rodriguez has been pretty consistent in that department since he’s been a full-time big league hitter.
However, his HR/PA and HR/OUTS numbers do not show that type of consistency. In fact, they show this pattern:
A jump up in 1999, from his 1996 through 1998 levels, which is maintained through 2003. And, then a dip in 2004, an increase in 2005, another dip in 2006, another increase in 2007, followed by another dip in 2008.
Now, this could just be an age thing…as A-Rod turned 23 in 1999 and then was 28 in 2004. Maybe he just matured at 23 and then started to show signs of age when he started to approach 30? It could be…
Or, maybe, he started using something in 1999 to help some of those doubles and triples (in his steady stream of extra base hits) turn into homeruns, and, kept using it until 2003? And, then, come 2004, thanks to the MLB PED policy, he stopped using it…until he used it again in 2005 (to get the New York fans and media off his back for a sub par 2004) and then he used it again in 2007 (to have a huge year in his opt out season)?
Now, keep in mind that this supposition above is 100% conjecture and not based on any hard evidence. If Roger Murtaugh were to read this, he would probably say “Pretty thin, huh?” and Martin Riggs would surely answer “Anorexic.”
But, if, somehow, it’s proven that Alex started using PEDs back in 1999, it would then explain some of these numbers…to an extent. What do you think?
Or, maybe, he started using something in 1999 to help some of those doubles and triples (in his steady stream of extra base hits) turn into homeruns
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Wouldn’t it also make sense that singes and doubles would turn into doubles and triples given his “newfound power”
I think that is some poor logic honestly.
What happened to that whole “tested ten times in ‘07″ thing? I thought that only turned out to be partially bogus (It was only 3 or 4)?
~~Wouldn’t it also make sense that singes and doubles would turn into doubles and triples given his “newfound power”~~
The doubles would become more like homers, I suppose…because triples are such a fluke hit. Unless you’re Lance Johnson, they just don’t come that frequently these days.
As far as turning singles into doubles, that’s also sort of hard…even if you’re stronger, it’s hard to turn a grounder into the 5/6 hole from a single into a double…and it’s hard to turn a liner right in front of the RF from a single into a double, etc.
The extra boost thing, taking XH and making them into HR is more a matter of taking doubles into the gap and off the wall and turning them into fly balls over the wall…
~~I think that is some poor logic honestly.~~
Such a statement is meaningless unless a reason is given.
~~What happened to that whole “tested ten times in ‘07″ thing? ~~
He later claimed it was a white lie.
http://waswatching.com/2008/02/20/alex-being-alex/
Here’s what I think:
Selena Roberts waged a one-woman campaign of character assassination on three innocent people when she was at the NYT.
NYT executive editor Bill Keller:
“I did think, and I told the columnists, that there was a tendency in a couple of places to moralize before the evidence was all in, and not to give adequate weight to the presumption of innocence… As a generalization, I’m not dismissive of the people who think that what appeared in the sports columns kind of contributed to a sense that the Times declared these guys guilty.”
Mike Nifong tried to destroy three people’s lives to get re-elected, and Roberts was too happy to assist him.
Believe a story with anonymous sources by Selena Roberts? Are the Madoff funds still accepting new accounts?
The extra boost thing, taking XH and making them into HR is more a matter of taking doubles into the gap and off the wall and turning them into fly balls over the wall…
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It would also make sense that more hits would hit the gap and hit the wall as well. Grounder in the hole is a line drive, a single to the outfielder would be over his head, etc…
“He later claimed it was a white lie.
http://waswatching.com/2008/02/20/alex-being-alex/”
I was under the impression that the “white lie” was regarding the number of times he was tested, but he was in fact tested signifigantly in’07. No?
A-Rod was 23 in 1999. Wouldn’t it make much more sense to think that his new-found power was due much more to his natural progression as a hitter?
If A-Rod had denied it immediately I might have had hope that this was a conspiracy from Roberts to sell books using nameless sources, but I do think his silence speaks volumes- maybe I’m wrong here, because the vehemence of Clemens’ denials had me fooled initially.
At this point, all 104 names need to be released. Yeah, he’s the highest paid player in the game, but it’s not fair that he’s the only one being hung out to dry here, just as it hasn’t been fair that Bonds has had to be the poster boy. Yeah, Bonds is a jerk, but he’s far from the only one.
I think what hallofamer means is that you can use the same method to “prove” Mickey Mantle started using steroids sometime in 1955 or 1956.
A-Rod was 23 in 1999. Wouldn’t it make much more sense to think that his new-found power was due much more to his natural progression as a hitter?
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Certainly. But since this is the path we’re going down, may as well play along….
0MG PlAyAZZZ ON DA JUICE!!!!11!!1!one!!1!
~~~A-Rod was 23 in 1999. Wouldn’t it make much more sense to think that his new-found power was due much more to his natural progression as a hitter?~~~
Did you miss the part where I wrote:
“Now, this could just be an age thing…as A-Rod turned 23 in 1999 and then was 28 in 2004. Maybe he just matured at 23 and then started to show signs of age when he started to approach 30? It could be…”
?
~~you can use the same method to “prove” Mickey Mantle started using steroids sometime in 1955 or 1956.~~
Except there was no report in 1964 that established Mantle had failed a PED piss test back in 1959…
~~Believe a story with anonymous sources by Selena Roberts? ~~
Well, they are saying that they corroborated the information with four sources…no? That’s twice as much as the industry standard, from what I’ve been told.
I’d like to hear more details about Ms. Roberts supposed transgressions, because over at Ken Davidoff’s blog, he’s vouching for her professionalism, and I believe Stark called her article “exquisitely sourced” or something like that. Like Steve says, 4 sources confirmed it, which might very well have been SI’s insistence that she not just have two independent sources. And has anyone noticed that the Times and the News both reported it separately, citing fewer sources? So they got their sources (possibly the same people) to say the same thing, after SI broke the story.
FWIW, on M&M this AM on ESPN Radio, they said that ESPN now has two sources who confirmed that Alex tested positive in 2003.
[...] Defining a generation / Stats On A-Rod Tell When He Started Getting A Boost? [...]
[...] it would not shock me to hear that Alex started using PEDs back in 1999. There’s some numbers to support such a theory. Further, as I have seen the question posed elsewhere on the ‘net today: A-Rod conveniently [...]
Or, maybe, he started using something in 1999 to help some of those doubles and triples (in his steady stream of extra base hits) turn into homeruns, and, kept using it until 2003? And, then, come 2004, thanks to the MLB PED policy, he stopped using it…until he used it again in 2005 (to get the New York fans and media off his back for a sub par 2004) and then he used it again in 2007 (to have a huge year in his opt out season)?
I think your theory here and at the other blog entry covering this subject is pretty solid, Steve. I’ve been skeptical of A-Rod’s superman performances for quite some time, but I’m not much on statistical analysis — I’ve believed he’s a liar-liar-LIAR since that 2000 season he tiptoed around the Mariners; ESPECIALLY after he and Boras released that 70 page prospectus.
My point on posting now is: Don’t forget, too, that he played for the first time in the new Safeco Field in July 1999 and thereafter, until his contract was up in 2000. It was (and still is) not particularly kind to RH hitters like A-Rod and Edgar Martinez. That LF wall is a tough one to hit HRs to. No doubt that’s where A-Rod learned to go to the opp. field…
So I wouldn’t doubt it for a minute that A-Rod was juiced in 1999 and 2000.