Yanks To Forfeit Six Games In 2009
Posted by Steve L. on February 14th, 2009 · Comments (7)
I noticed that Joe Girardi hopes for Jorge Posada to catch 100-110 games this season. (Hat tip to YanksBlog.)
So, that means Jose Molina should see about 200 Plate Appearances this year. Or, another way of saying that is that the Yankees, by playing Molina that much, will be giving their opposition about 160 “free” outs this year when Jose comes to bat.
One hundred and sixty outs equates to about 6 games. Hence, the half-dozen contests that New York will be spotting the league by playing Molina as much as it appears he will now…
Yeah, I’m kidding with this…but, only sorta/kinda.
A couple of things…
1) It’s really an extra 100 plate appearances or so. Posada, at age 37, was not going to catch more than 125-130 in any event, even injury-free. Molina can’t hit, but neither can most backup catchers. The difference between healthy average Posada and Molina is about 60 runs a year, so an extra 100 PA for Molina is really about 12 less runs, and 10 more outs (lifetime difference in OBA is about .100, or 10 extra outs over 100 PA). The total offensive minus is therefore roughly 15 runs. This will be offset by the defensive and gamecalling plus, which I estimate will be about 5 runs over the 25 games. (I would estimate that Molina is about 30 per year better than Posada when Posada was healthy, and more now with the weakened shoulder.)
The actual cost to the Yanks is therefore about 10 runs, or about 1 game, not 6.
The alternative is to trade valuable asset(s) for a better backup catcher…say, Phil Hughes for Chris Snyder. Not worth it, I think.
I’m glad you threw in that you were kidding about this steve!
Who knows? Maybe Cervelli will step it up and take those starts.
I think you’re being a little bit crazy about this. He’ll maybe only cost them 4 not 6. You are not counting the few outs and occasional, very occasional, hit.
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~~I think you’re being a little bit crazy about this.~~
Even ‘tho I wrote that I was kidding?
Thanks for the mention, Steve.