• Why Does PECOTA Have Yanks Projected To Slug .424 As A Team In 2009?

    Posted by on February 19th, 2009 · Comments (7)

    Thanks to Evans Clinchy, I saw that Baseball Prospectus has released their annual Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm (PECOTA) projections for the upcoming season. And, while I was looking at the PECOTA standings, and clicked on the Yankees, this question popped up:

    Why does PECOTA have the Yankees projected to slug .424 as a team in 2009?

    Could the reason be the fact that the Yankees, as a team, slugged .427 last year? I dunno. What do you think?

    Comments on Why Does PECOTA Have Yanks Projected To Slug .424 As A Team In 2009?

    1. MJ
      February 19th, 2009 | 11:05 pm

      I’ve always wanted to know how much a bad year or an abberation can skew these projections…

    2. Evan3457
      February 20th, 2009 | 8:30 am

      Then check out Posada’s. Big dropoff from even an ‘average’ Posada season, due to his injury last year, and to comparisons to other catchers at his age:

      AB: 257, R 28, H 64, 2B 13, 3B 1, HR 7, RBI 33, K 50, BB 28, BAVG .249, OBP .336, SLG .406

      Now, that, in addition to having Molina as the backup, is a scary thought. Worst part is BP might be right. I don’t think they are, and it’s easy to pick on one projection that looks to be skewed.

      Just for funsies, here’s my projection:

      AB 430, R 52, H 117, 2B 24, 3B 1, HR 18, K 93, BB 50, BAVG .272, OBA .348, SLG .458

      It all depends on the shoulder.

    3. MJ
      February 20th, 2009 | 8:33 am

      If that’s the case then I can’t really put too much stock in these analytical projections since they seem to be blindly spitting out numbers based on the previous season’s results. While I agree that Posada’s shoulder injury is a cause for alarm, it’s not terribly instructive to have a projection that assumes injuries as constant.

    4. butchie22
      February 20th, 2009 | 10:03 am

      I’m not a big fan of PECOTA and the like to begin with. Yes, they weren’t that prodigious in terms of offense and I have a concern with it BUT is the .427 an aberration or a reflection of the aging veterans on the Yankees? I think that it is a reflection of the diminishing veteran and newbie offense and that will be a concern for me.

    5. Raf
      February 20th, 2009 | 10:21 am

      If that’s the case then I can’t really put too much stock in these analytical projections since they seem to be blindly spitting out numbers based on the previous season’s results.
      ——–
      FWIW, it also takes into consideration age, and similar players.

      We don’t know how the new Stadium is going to play. Having said that, I don’t think the Yanks are going to slug .427 as a team again, unless they have the same issues as they did last year. They were running a lineup short 3 players, with Cano, Cabrera & Molina stinking up the joint.

    6. David
      February 20th, 2009 | 11:21 am

      A projection based on the past could be wildly wrong for a particular player, but it’s likely to be closer for the team as a whole. Some players will do better than projected, some will do worse.

      The Yanks hitters have a lot a lot of question marks:

      – How many games will Posada play as catcher?
      – How well will Posada hit, given his age and surgery?
      – How big a decline due to age (if any) will Jeter, ARod, and Matsui, experience?
      – How will the steroid circus affect ARod?
      – What kind of production will they get from Gardner and Melky?
      – Will Cano bounce back? By how much?
      – Will Swisher bounce back? By how much?
      – What injuries will occur?
      – Who will they trade for in mid-season?

    7. ken
      February 21st, 2009 | 12:31 pm

      Pitching is why the Yanks have ‘underperformed’ in this decade and pitching will determine their chance of success/failure in the future.

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