• Why The Yankees Will Be In Last Place On May 7, 2009

    Posted by on March 10th, 2009 · Comments (16)

    The Yankees will be in last place on May 7th of this season? Really?

    Yup. I think it can happen – and here’s why:

    1. The Yankees have some “slow” starters on their team. For example:

    • In his career, to date, Mark Teixeira has the following BA/OBA/SLG line – herein “slash line” – during the months of March/April: .256 /.346/ .442 (in 564 PA).
    • In his career, to date, CC Sabathia has an ERA of 4.51 during the months of March and April (over 34 starts and 201.6 IP).
    • Robinson Cano, in his career, to date, has the following slash line during March/April: .237/.283/.328 (in 294 PA).
    • Damaso Marte, in his career, to date, has an ERA of 4.02 during March/April (in 79 games and 65 IP).
    • Johnny Damon, in his career, to date, has the following slash line during March/April: .273/.346/.410 (in 1,310 PA).
    • Chien-Ming Wang, in his career, to date, has an ERA of 4.08 during March/April (over 14 starts and 88.3 IP).
    • Hideki Matsui, in his career, to date, has the following slash line during March/April: .268/.363/.416 (in 567 PA).

    2. As I have mentioned before, the first 30 games of the Yankees schedule this season is tough – and, even at full strength, New York should probably be only expected to play just about .500 ball over this period.

    3. Lastly, the Yankees will be without A-Rod! from Opening Day until at least May 7th. And, we know that Alex Rodriguez has been a run producer for the Yankees in the past. Sure, yes…there may be debate over the game conditions under which they are derived, but, the numbers are always there for Alex.

    O.K., maybe the headline on this one is a tad sensationalistic? Perhaps the last place projection is being overly pessimistic?

    I could yield to those claims – after all, even if things go poorly for the Yankees over their first 30 games, the Baltimore Orioles are still in the A.L. East. And, the O’s have been a weak team for 8 years running now. It may be very hard for New York to play worse than Baltimore at the start of this season.

    In any event, with Alex Rodriguez now out for the start of the season, when you add that to New York’s schedule over their first 30 games, and factor in those players on the Yankees who usually get off to slow starts…well…things may not be all puppy dogs and cupcakes in Yankeeland when the calendar shows the date of May 7, 2009. I’m just sayin’…

    Comments on Why The Yankees Will Be In Last Place On May 7, 2009

    1. Evan3457
      March 10th, 2009 | 3:07 am

      Care to give odds on that proposition? 😉

    2. antone
      March 10th, 2009 | 6:30 am

      Nice “reverse-jinx”, Steve.

    3. MJ
      March 10th, 2009 | 8:40 am

      The O’s and Jays will both finish under .500 this year. Being in last place on May 7th doesn’t matter one bit.

    4. March 10th, 2009 | 8:54 am

      ~~Being in last place on May 7th doesn’t matter one bit.~~

      Really? Starting out in a hole, after 1/6th of the season is done, doesn’t matter?

    5. MJ
      March 10th, 2009 | 9:34 am

      Really? Starting out in a hole, after 1/6th of the season is done, doesn’t matter?
      ——–
      Nope, it really doesn’t. It only matters to ESPN and the daily tabloids.

      The Yanks were in 4th place, 0.5 games ahead of the last place Rays on the same date in 2007. The Yanks made the playoffs that season.

    6. Raf
      March 10th, 2009 | 9:38 am

      Really? Starting out in a hole, after 1/6th of the season is done, doesn’t matter?
      —————-
      You’re going to win a 1/3 of your games, you’re going to lose 1/3 of your games. It’s what you do with the other 1/3 that counts.

      Unless the games are weighed where you get more credit for winning games in April & May, then I’d say that it doesn’t matter.

      And even if it did, you have to take into consideration how the team is performing.

    7. March 10th, 2009 | 9:53 am

      ~~Nope, it really doesn’t. It only matters to ESPN and the daily tabloids.~~

      Then it will matter to Girardi, Cashman and Hank – because they’ll be the ones hearing it.

    8. March 10th, 2009 | 9:54 am

      ~~Unless the games are weighed where you get more credit for winning games in April & May, then I’d say that it doesn’t matter.~~

      Anyone who’s been around baseball for a while will tell you that every game you win in April is one less that you will *need* to win in September. Go ask Earl Weaver.

    9. MJ
      March 10th, 2009 | 9:59 am

      Then it will matter to Girardi, Cashman and Hank – because they’ll be the ones hearing it.
      ——-
      I agree with you there. They’ll be hearing it because ESPN and the daily tabloids are a bunch of morons who spend time obsessing over trivialities.

    10. MJ
      March 10th, 2009 | 10:01 am

      Anyone who’s been around baseball for a while will tell you that every game you win in April is one less that you will *need* to win in September. Go ask Earl Weaver.
      ——–
      No one’s disagreeing that it would be better to go 162-0 and have the division clinched by July. However there’s no reason to panic if the team is closer to last than to first in May. It’s a long season and we’ve seen enough things happen over the course of 162 games to start freaking out about the standings on May 7th.

    11. Raf
      March 10th, 2009 | 10:47 am

      Anyone who’s been around baseball for a while will tell you that every game you win in April is one less that you will *need* to win in September. Go ask Earl Weaver.
      ————————
      Anyone who’s been around baseball for a while will also tell you that pennants aren’t won in April or May.

      This ain’t football, where a bad month will scotch a season.

    12. Raf
      March 10th, 2009 | 10:48 am

      This ain’t football, where a bad month will scotch a season.
      ————-
      Amended to “unless the bad month occurs in Aug or Sept…”

    13. March 10th, 2009 | 10:59 am

      ~~Amended to “unless the bad month occurs in Aug or Sept…”~~

      The 2000 Yankees went 5-16 in their last 21 games in September. That’s a bad month. But, they could afford to do that since they started off the season by going 22-9 in their first 31 games of 2000.

      Again, that’s the point. Every win in April is one less that you need in September.

    14. Raf
      March 10th, 2009 | 11:20 am

      The 2000 Yankees went 5-16 in their last 21 games in September. That’s a bad month. But, they could afford to do that since they started off the season by going 22-9 in their first 31 games of 2000.
      —————-
      Looking at the Yanks month by month record in 2000
      Month by Month
      Split W L RS RA WP
      April 15 8 112 106 .652
      May 13 13 122 111 .500
      June 10 15 155 153 .400
      July 18 8 167 113 .692
      August 18 12 187 148 .600
      September 13 17 125 176 .433
      October 0 1 3 7 .000

      And the Red Sox
      Split W L RS RA WP
      April 12 9 117 80 .571
      May 17 10 146 97 .630
      June 9 18 118 160 .333
      July 16 11 141 138 .593
      August 15 13 125 119 .536
      September 16 15 143 148 .516
      October 0 1 2 3 .000

      The Yanks outperformed the Sox in 4 out of 6 months during the season.

    15. Raf
      March 10th, 2009 | 11:20 am

      doh!

      sorry about the formatting…

    16. MJ
      March 10th, 2009 | 12:00 pm

      Again, that’s the point. Every win in April is one less that you need in September.
      ——–
      And, again, no one’s saying that a bad start would be ideal. It’s just that a bad start in April isn’t a big deal either.

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